2021 Orioles #1 Prospect - Adley Rutschman -C

[Tony-OH]

Adley Rutschman
Pos: Catcher
Bats: S
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2021 Level: AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 50/70
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 60/65
Run: 45/40
Defense: 60/70

Season	Team	Level	Age	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	LD%	GB%	FB%	wOBA	wRC+
2019	BAL	R	21	1	12.5%	12.5%	.143	.250	.357	.607	.214	9.1%	45.5%	45.5%	.262	56
2019	BAL	A-	21	1	13.0%	17.4%	.325	.413	.481	.894	.156	36.1%	26.2%	37.7%	.415	166
2019	BAL	A	21	2	12.8%	19.1%	.154	.261	.333	.594	.179	6.7%	50.0%	43.3%	.277	75
2021	BAL	AA	23	18	15.4%	15.9%	.271	.392	.508	.901	.237	17.2%	38.1%	44.8%	.391	145
2021	BAL	AAA	23	5	13.0%	17.8%	.312	.405	.490	.896	.178	26.6%	30.6%	42.7%	.395	142

Stats

Most Likely Future Role: Starting Catcher, occasional All-Star
Ceiling: Starting Catching, Perennial All-Star

What we know: The first overall pick in the 2019 draft by the Orioles, Rutschman is a rare plus offensive and defensive catcher. Widely regarded as the number one prospect in all of baseball by many national publications, Rutschman ended the year in AAA where he put up a .395 wOBA and 142 wRC+. A good hitter from both sides of the plate, he was a better hitter from the right side of the plate where he slashed .350/.439/.621/1.060 vs his .256/.377/.449/.825 mark as a left-handed hitter. His lefthanded swing has more upper cut to it and can get long at times. He can get beat at times up and in on his hands, but he seemed to have closed that hole and shortened the swing a bit as the season went on. He's an extremely smart hitter who can make adjustments within and at bat who gets in deep counts often with his plus plus awareness of the strike zone.

Defensively he's already a plus receiver who is able to get many fringe pitches called strikes for his pitchers. He throws well and learned to take care of his arm a bit throughout the season. He threw out 28% of base stealers but that should improve in the major leagues where pitchers are better at holding runners. He's not afraid to throw behind runners accurately and fields his position well. He blocks well behind the plate and is his pitchers biggest cheer leader, running out to them after each inning. If there is one area where he can improve it's setting a still target. He tends to put up a late target that moves a bit as the pitcher is in his motion. Interestingly, he played a very good 1st base when he was rested behind the plate. He showed good hands and was able to make the double play throw to second base accurately.

He's an extremely hard worker who's work ethic rubs off on all his teammates. He's a great teammate and will a be positive influence in any clubhouse

What we don't know: While there is little doubt Rutschman is going to get on base at a high clip, there's enough miss in his bat that could suggest he may not hit for extremely high average if he doesn't keep that shorter left-handed swing. While he showed off good power, he may end up a 25-30 home run guy vs a 40+ guy on a consistent basis.

What we think: Rutschman has all the makings of being a franchise type player who will end up a plus bat and defender as a catcher. He's ready for the major leagues right now and depending on the collective bargaining agreement, he should start the year or play most of the season as the Orioles starting catcher in 2022.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/10/24/adley-rutschman-c-2/

[sportsfan8703]

AR has done exactly what everyone has expected him to do. Now it’s just a CBA issue. 

[Frobby]

Very nice write-up, Tony.   I agree Rutschman may not hit for average as much as we like.   At the same time, the power I saw was tremendous.   I saw video of maybe 18 or 20 of his 23 homers, and there wasn’t a wall-scraper in the bunch.   Many were tremendous blasts.   Playing in OPACY, I think he’s a 35+ homer guy in his prime.   

Even though the team probably won’t be very good in 2022, just watching Rutschman develop and the impact he has on the team will be reason enough to watch.   
 

[Pickles]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very nice write-up, Tony.   I agree Rutschman may not hit for average as much as we like.   At the same time, the power I saw was tremendous.   I saw video of maybe 18 or 20 of his 23 homers, and there wasn’t a wall-scraper in the bunch.   Many were tremendous blasts.   Playing in OPACY, I think he’s a 35+ homer guy in his prime.   

Even though the team probably won’t be very good in 2022, just watching Rutschman develop and the impact he has on the team will be reason enough to watch.   
 

I was very surprised to see the grades Tony put on his hit tool: Current 50 and Future 70.

That seems high to me, personally.

It suggest that Rutschman has the ability to develop into a consistent .300+ hitter.  I just don't see that happening.

Perhaps Tony could expand on his thoughts.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Very nice write-up, Tony.   I agree Rutschman may not hit for average as much as we like.   At the same time, the power I saw was tremendous.   I saw video of maybe 18 or 20 of his 23 homers, and there wasn’t a wall-scraper in the bunch.   Many were tremendous blasts.   Playing in OPACY, I think he’s a 35+ homer guy in his prime.   

Even though the team probably won’t be very good in 2022, just watching Rutschman develop and the impact he has on the team will be reason enough to watch.   
 

He does have that kind of power potential, but if he does hit for that kind of power, he's probably going to end up a .250-.260 hitter though with the walks he'll still have an OBP around .340-.350. The power dropped off in AAA when he shortened his left-handed swing. We'll see what he uses next year in Baltimore. He might hit for less power early on as he makes adjustments but ultimately I can see him as a 30 homer guy with peak years higher.

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I was very surprised to see the grades Tony put on his hit tool: Current 50 and Future 70.

That seems high to me, personally.

It suggest that Rutschman has the ability to develop into a consistent .300+ hitter.  I just don't see that happening.

Perhaps Tony could expand on his thoughts.

Hit tool for me is not just average for me, but plate discipline and strike zone awareness. While the holes in his left handed swing may cause his average to suffer a bit, he has top of the charts strike zone awareness. If Rutschman keeps the shorter swing that he used in AAA from the left side, I could see him hitting for a higher average and I know he's going to draw his share of walks because he gets in deep counts often.

 

[HowAboutThat]

I don’t know why so many people were down on Wieters. I was unhappy with his last year or two, but he generally had an outstanding career, with very little to complain about except unmet lofty expectations, and it’s hard to fault a guy for that.

If AR It is as successful or more so, even if he too suffers from “unmet lofty expectations” I don’t think anybody will be able to call it anything but a win.

So 20 homers instead of 35 will be nothing to complain about.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t know why so many people were down on Wieters. I was unhappy with his last year or two, but he generally had an outstanding career, with very little to complain about except unmet lofty expectations, and it’s hard to fault a guy for that.

If AR It is as successful or more so, even if he too suffers from “unmet lofty expectations” I don’t think anybody will be able to call it anything but a win.

So 20 homers instead of 35 will be nothing to complain about.

When you’re picked 1:1, expectations are going to be high.   And Rutschman was considered the most clear-cut 1:1 in a long time.   If he’s not a 40 WAR player many folks are going to be disappointed.

As to Wieters, I’d say his career was fine for a 1:5 pick, but it paled compared to expectations once he had his monster MiL season in 2008.   
 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

When you’re picked 1:1, expectations are going to be high.   And Rutschman was considered the most clear-cut 1:1 in a long time.   If he’s not a 40 WAR player many folks are going to be disappointed.

As to Wieters, I’d say his career was fine for a 1:5 pick, but it paled compared to expectations once he had his monster MiL season in 2008.   
 

Well, sure, and I understand that there is a ratio of production to expectation that is considered acceptable, And one day some psychologist is going to do a thesis on exactly what that “acceptable” percentage is.

My point was that AR doesn’t have to be the risen Savior to have a successful career, anymore than Wieters did.

[Pickles]

On 10/25/2021 at 12:39 PM, Tony-OH said:

Hit tool for me is not just average for me, but plate discipline and strike zone awareness. While the holes in his left handed swing may cause his average to suffer a bit, he has top of the charts strike zone awareness. If Rutschman keeps the shorter swing that he used in AAA from the left side, I could see him hitting for a higher average and I know he's going to draw his share of walks because he gets in deep counts often.

 

That's a bit of a philosophical question, which I believe I had before with Can of Corn, specifically regarding Rutschman.  It's clear he has excellent plate discipline.  If you look at hit tool as an "obp" thing rather than an "avg" thing, then I believe your grade is fairly accurate.