Trade Cabrera NOW!!!

[bryanman8]

Wait a second. When Guthrie puts that many balls in play he is LUCKY to be doing well. Cabrera does it and he is dominate. Someone tell me this isn't right. Someone tell me his BABIP was very lucky tonight.

Daniel Cabrera last year: 157 K's in 148 IP

Jeremy Guthrie forever: Doesn't strike out anyone.

One start you can be dominant despite not striking out that many. Jeremy Guthrie's done it a couple times this year. For your career though, you can't.

Daniel Cabrera still has ace potential. He shows flashes of brilliance but has never combined his entire skill-set at the same time.

Jeremy Guthrie doesn't.

[Fairfax Bird]

Game to game basis is different from a full season basis.

No offense, but blah, blah, blah ... Guthrie has been stellar over his entire time starting ... Cabrera will throw this great gem of a game and over his next 3 starts will be mediocre to stinky.

[El Gordo]

Wait a second. When Guthrie puts that many balls in play he is LUCKY to be doing well. Cabrera does it and he is dominate. Someone tell me this isn't right. Someone tell me his BABIP was very lucky tonight.

He wasn't that lucky. I saw 3 maybe 4 hard hit balls that were turned into outs. When he pitches on balance and over the top like tonight he's got so much movement on the ball he's virtually unhitable.

His problem is one of mantaining consistant mechanics.

[JTrea81]

Daniel Cabrera last year: 157 K's in 148 IP

Jeremy Guthrie forever: Doesn't strike out anyone.

One start you can be dominant despite not striking out that many. Jeremy Guthrie's done it a couple times this year. For your career though, you can't.

Daniel Cabrera still has ace potential. He shows flashes of brilliance but has never combined his entire skill-set at the same time.

Jeremy Guthrie doesn't.

Strikeouts are great but Guthrie has had more quality starts this year than Cabrera has had combined in the past two years...

[Fairfax Bird]

Daniel Cabrera last year: 157 K's in 148 IP

Jeremy Guthrie forever: Doesn't strike out anyone.

One start you can be dominant despite not striking out that many. Jeremy Guthrie's done it a couple times this year. For your career though, you can't.

Daniel Cabrera still has ace potential. He shows flashes of brilliance but has never combined his entire skill-set at the same time.

Jeremy Guthrie doesn't.

Guthrie in the majors has 5.84 K/9

Greg Maddux in the majors has a 6.18 K/9

Not all that different. I wonder, was Maddux an ace.

Cabrera has a million dollar arm and a ten cent head. He will never live up to that #1 potential. Guthrie has a $500,000 arm and a million dollar head. He will be better over his ML career than Cabrera.

[Mackus]

Daniel Cabrera last year: 157 K's in 148 IP

Jeremy Guthrie forever: Doesn't strike out anyone.

One start you can be dominant despite not striking out that many. Jeremy Guthrie's done it a couple times this year. For your career though, you can't.

Daniel Cabrera still has ace potential. He shows flashes of brilliance but has never combined his entire skill-set at the same time.

Jeremy Guthrie doesn't.

Cabrera might have ace potential (I don't think so anymore, he doesn't have the nasty stuff anymore, he lost it) but he's only got about a 1% chance of reaching that potential. Guthrie won't be an ace, but he's got a much better chance of being a valuable member of a rotation than Cabrera.

I have little doubt that Guthrie's next 3-4 years will be better than Cabrera's next 3-4 years.

[srh523]

Jeremy Guthrie forever: Doesn't strike out anyone.

HUH?

I will take Guthrie's K/BB ratio over Dcab's any day of the week and twice on Sunday! I also think you will find that their K/9 this year is almost identical.

[Fairfax Bird]

He wasn't that lucky. I saw 3 maybe 4 hard hit balls that were turned into outs. When he pitches on balance and over the top like tonight he's got so much movement on the ball he's virtually unhitable.

His problem is one of mantaining consistant mechanics.

I didn't say Cabrera was lucky, I am saying that Guthrie isn't.

[Sports Guy]

I didn't say Cabrera was lucky, I am saying that Guthrie isn't.

This is just ignoring the stats.

But whatever, i am not getting into this conversation again.

The stats back up that he has been lucky...They also back up that he has been good...It is a combo of both...ANYONE denying that fact is totally wrong.

[birdboy]

Cabrera is just not worth it...ERA still over 5. He is unable to put it all together except on rare occasions. These rare occasions make a lot of O Fans all excited...but it is all much ado about nothing. Cabrera will never amount to anything except a huge waste of time for the Oriole Organization which keeps dreaming but doesn't realize what a nightmare Cabrera is. The O Organization doesn't want to admit any mistakes...one reason is because then they would have to find another guy to hype ad nauseum rather than spend money on someone worthwhile. Flanagan should be ashamed of himself especially since he is an ex-Oriole pitcher. It is strange and disheartening that he has sold out his soul.

[Fairfax Bird]

This is just ignoring the stats.

But whatever, i am not getting into this conversation again.

The stats back up that he has been lucky...They also back up that he has been good...It is a combo of both...ANYONE denying that fact is totally wrong.

I will say he has had good defense and a bit of luck, but some people put too much stock in BABIP.

[Sports Guy]

I will say he has had good defense and a bit of luck, but some people put too much stock in BABIP.

All i want is for it to be in the league average area.

That's all.

He is well below league average right now.

[Mackus]

I will say he has had good defense and a bit of luck, but some people put too much stock in BABIP.

He's gotten lucky, or had better results than his non-dependent stats would suggest (if you dont liek the word luck) in a few areas. One of these is BABIP, but he's also given up fewer HRs than his FB% would indicate and a couple other things.

His periferals would indicate that he's been very good. And he has been. He's just been a bit better than even those very good periferals would indicate, and thats where luck or whatever you want to call it comes in. Guthrie has been and probably will continue to be a very good pitcher, but he's not gonna have a mid 2's ERA. He'll be in the upper 3s or lower 4s, still very very good and very very valuable for very very cheap.

[Fairfax Bird]

All i want is for it to be in the league average area.

That's all.

He is well below league average right now.

Is it possible that he is below league average because he constantly has batters down 0-2 and 1-2 and they are having to put balls in to play on pitcher's pitches? Is it possible that he is causing hitters to have a low BABIP off of him?

[Fairfax Bird]

He's gotten lucky, or had better results than his non-dependent stats would suggest (if you dont liek the word luck) in a few areas. One of these is BABIP, but he's also given up fewer HRs than his FB% would indicate and a couple other things.

His periferals would indicate that he's been very good. And he has been. He's just been a bit better than even those very good periferals would indicate, and thats where luck or whatever you want to call it comes in. Guthrie has been and probably will continue to be a very good pitcher, but he's not gonna have a mid 2's ERA. He'll be in the upper 3s or lower 4s, still very very good and very very valuable for very very cheap.

This I don't disagree with. I do disagree with the idea that BABIP is a non-dependent stat. Watch him and he is always ahead. When pitchers pitch ahead hitters batting averages go down.