Out of Tony’s top 9…

[Frobby]

I note that Tony ranked each of the 9 for risk.

Extreme - Kjerstad

High - Mayo, Hall

Medium - Cowser, Henderson, Westburg

Low - Rodriguez, Stowers 

Minimal - Rutschman

Personally I’d put Stowers in the medium category, but he is in AAA and adjusted reasonably well there.  

[HowAboutThat]

To be honest, I think most of the guys won’t make it, or perhaps most of the guys will make it to major-league level, which is an accomplishment, but they’ll have careers like Joey Rickard or DJ Stewart or Chance Sisco(who’s available now, jus sayin’) And can hardly be called successful.

I think a better question would be an over under on WAR Produced by these guys individually in the next three or four seasons.

[Ruzious]

21 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s weird that people are viewing this as an attack or macabre. I’m sure nobody thinks they’re all gonna be major leaguers with successful careers. 

I would/will not predict that anyone specifically of the 9 will not be successful major leaguers.  

[SilverRocket]

I know it's not quite the same but DL Hall reminds me of Hunter Harvey. Once a hotshot prospect ahead of his time, but now he's already 23 and hasn't hit AAA yet, and isn't even throwing off a mound.

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I note that Tony ranked each of the 9 for risk.

Extreme - Kjerstad

High - Mayo, Hall

Medium - Cowser, Henderson, Westburg

Low - Rodriguez, Stowers 

Minimal - Rutschman

Personally I’d put Stowers in the medium category, but he is in AAA and adjusted reasonably well there.  

Remember, that risk profile was based off level and injury concerns, not statistics. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

DL Hall given his already shaky health history and plenty of top pitcher prospects wash out even if they stay healthy. 

[Frobby]

 

2 hours ago, Philip said:

To be honest, I think most of the guys won’t make it, or perhaps most of the guys will make it to major-league level, which is an accomplishment, but they’ll have careers like Joey Rickard or DJ Stewart or Chance Sisco(who’s available now, jus sayin’) And can hardly be called successful.

I think a better question would be an over under on WAR Produced by these guys individually in the next three or four seasons.

That answer is going to vary a lot depending how close to the majors the player is.   Even if you agree that Mayo is our no. 3 prospect, he may not produce as much WAR as Stowers in the next 3-4 years.

I’d be more interested in how much WAR you think they will produce in the years they are under team control.   Just to give a sense of scale:

Machado 34.4

Markakis 22.0

Jones 20.2

Arrieta 20.0

Hardy 16.4

Wieters 16.3

Britton 11.1

Gausman 10.5

Tillman 10.0

Davies 9.7

Bundy 8.6

J. Johnson 8.2

Reimold 2.8

With that, I’ll give you my own opinion on the realistic case and optimistic case for the nine players.

Rutschman 20+/30+
Rodriguez 15+/25+
Mayo 10+/20+
Cowser 10+/20+
Hall 10+/20+
Henderson 10+/20+
Stowers 8+/15+
Westburg 8+/15+
Kjerstad 10+/20+

Now, do I expect all 9 to reach their “realistic” case?   No.    I’d hope that 5-6 of the 9 will reach or exceed it, and that the ones who fall short will be counterweighed by (1) those on this list who exceed their realistic case, and (2) players not listed here who produce more than currently expected.   

[HowAboutThat]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

That answer is going to vary a lot depending how close to the majors the player is.   Even if you agree that Mayo is our no. 3 prospect, he may not produce as much WAR as Stowers in the next 3-4 years.

I’d be more interested in how much WAR you think they will produce in the years they are under team control.   Just to give a sense of scale:

Machado 34.4

Markakis 22.0

Jones 20.2

Arrieta 20.0

Hardy 16.4

Wieters 16.3

Britton 11.1

Gausman 10.5

Tillman 10.0

Davies 9.7

Bundy 8.6

J. Johnson 8.2

Reimold 2.8

With that, I’ll give you my own opinion on the realistic case and optimistic case for the nine players.

Rutschman 20+/30+
Rodriguez 15+/25+
Mayo 10+/20+
Cowser 10+/20+
Hall 10+/20+
Henderson 10+/20+
Stowers 8+/15+
Westburg 8+/15+
Kjerstad 10+/20+

Now, do I expect all 9 to reach their “realistic” case?   No.    I’d hope that 5-6 of the 9 will reach or exceed it, and that the ones who fall short will be counterweighed by (1) those on this list who exceed their realistic case, and (2) players not listed here who produce more than currently expected.   

That’s a fascinating question, but if you’re asking me, I could not begin to make a guess, I am not educated about the minor leagues at all. I can be positive or negative, based on reasonable information, but I don’t know enough to go in depth enough to make really accurate predictions.

I rely on YOU for that!

PS You would have to specify team control, I guarantee Zack Davies didn’t earn all that WAR for us.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Philip

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s a fascinating question, but if you’re asking me, I could not begin to make a guess, I am not educated about the minor leagues at all. I can be positive or negative, based on reasonable information, but I don’t know enough to go in depth enough to make really accurate predictions.

I rely on YOU for that!

PS You would have to specify team control, I guarantee Zack Davies didn’t earn all that WAR for us.

Well, you can’t guess who the O’s might trade away.   You can only guess who will be good or not.   And we’re all guessing — the term “accurate predictions” doesn’t really apply to anyone.   I’ll just say, from watching the prospect scene over the last 20 years or so, that there are more players who disappoint than there are players who exceed expectations, but there are plenty of both.   

[HowAboutThat]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, you can’t guess who the O’s might trade away.   You can only guess who will be good or not.   And we’re all guessing — the term “accurate predictions” doesn’t really apply to anyone.   I’ll just say, from watching the prospect scene over the last 20 years or so, that there are more players who disappoint than there are players who exceed expectations, but there are plenty of both.   

In his wonderful show, “Connections,” James Burke made some astonishing predictions, and they’ve all come true.

Bernard Shaw’s 1892 predictions about music in 1992 were also exactly right.

So it IS possible. My only prediction will be incorrect, however, so I won’t bother. But it’s an interesting way to while away the hours till March 20 or so…

Unless Manfred spoils all the fun.

[byrdz]

Not all of them will make it. So my guess is the injury prone players. DL Hall

[Aglets]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

…who is the guy you feel is the most likely to never live up to his current ranking?

Im going with Stowers.

Its easy to say Kjerstad at the moment but the team took him at 2 for a reason, so I’m not willing to say this about him until I see him play.

DL Hall and I don't think it's particularly close.  For similar reasons as Kjerstad but he's a pitcher with already a serious arm injury under his belt.

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, Ruzious said:

  

None is a perfectly fine answer, and I'll go with it.  

This is a great fan answer even if it is not particularly realistic.

16 hours ago, joelala said:

I’ll go Hall or Rodriguez simply because they’re pitchers. 

I am a Baltimore Oriole fan and I approve this message.

[sportsfan8703]

On 11/19/2021 at 1:56 PM, joelala said:

I’ll go Hall or Rodriguez simply because they’re pitchers. 

Sadly this is true.