Tracking Fangraphs’ 2022 farm valuations

[Frobby]

As usual, Fangraphs is rolling out it’s farm system analyses team-by-team.   Unlike other publications, they don’t do a top 20 or top 30.   Rather, they list every player in an organization who they grade 35+ or higher.    Some teams have way more than others.   Also, though it doesn’t appear in the articles on each team, Fangraphs has placed a dollar value on each level of prospect, e.g. a 55 FV pitcher is worth $34 mm.    So, it’s possible to track the value of each farm system as Fangraphs releases its reports.  I think it’s the best system for ranking the teams of any publication, because there’s an actual methodology.   That doesn’t mean they always get it right, of course.

So far, Fangraphs has released reports on 8 teams.   They haven’t done the Orioles yet, and they really haven’t gotten to any of the top systems yet, though I think that’s coincidental, not intentional.   To date, the Tigers have the top system they’ve evaluated, at $222 mm.   The A’s are the worst, at $102 mm.   In the AL East, the Yankees are at $185 mm, the Blue Jays at $183.5 mm.   No rankings for Boston or Tampa yet.   

I think the O’s may come pretty soon, because Eric Longenhagen indicated they were releasing them by geographic region where the spring training complex is located.   The Yankees were today, so the O’s could be soon.   

I’ll update this from time to time, and certainly when the O’s rankings appear.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

Tease...

[Frobby]

Fangraphs did the Pirates today.   They’re one of the three orgs BA rates ahead of us.   The Pirates have a very deep system — 61 prospects who Fangraphs grade at 35+ or higher.   Overall Fangraphs values them at $294 mm, which is very good but not amazing.  Mostly that’s because Fangraphs isn’t overwhelmed with their top-end talent, grading their top two at 60 (worth $55 mm) and 55 (worth $46 mm).

They’ve now graded 12 teams and the current top 3 are:

PIT $294 mm (61 prospects)

ARI $229.5 mm (46 prospects)

DET $222 mm (34 prospects)

Bottom 3 are: 

OAK $102 mm (33 prospects)

LAA $107 mm (41 prospects)

COL $109.5 mm (36 prospects)

In the middle:  CHC, SFG  NYY, TOR, PHI, MIL.   The first four are bunched tightly between $183.5 - 189.5 mm, with Philly trailing that group by $23.5 mm and Milwaukee another $26 mm further back.   

[Pickles]

On 1/14/2022 at 11:18 AM, Frobby said:

As usual, Fangraphs is rolling out it’s farm system analyses team-by-team.   Unlike other publications, they don’t do a top 20 or top 30.   Rather, they list every player in an organization who they grade 35+ or higher.    Some teams have way more than others.   Also, though it doesn’t appear in the articles on each team, Fangraphs has placed a dollar value on each level of prospect, e.g. a 55 FV pitcher is worth $34 mm.    So,  

 

That's a pretty blunt instrument.

I certainly wouldn't say all 55 FVs are created equal.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

That's a pretty blunt instrument.

I certainly wouldn't say all 55 FVs are created equal.

Well, first of all, they do differentiate the value of a 55 pitcher vs. a 55 hitter.   And second, I think their logic is that it’s very hard to distinguish between players on the same tier.   Obviously in a perfect world you could have a guy be a 57 FV and another guy a 53.   But those are tough distinctions.   And the dollar valuation of the different tiers was actually based on study of the value, as opposed to the other sites that can’t really articulate how they weight an org with more top end talent vs. one with more depth, they just stick a finger in the wind and guess.   

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 2/4/2022 at 9:33 PM, Frobby said:

Well, first of all, they do differentiate the value of a 55 pitcher vs. a 55 hitter.   And second, I think their logic is that it’s very hard to distinguish between players on the same tier.   Obviously in a perfect world you could have a guy be a 57 FV and another guy a 53.   But those are tough distinctions.   And the dollar valuation of the different tiers was actually based on study of the value, as opposed to the other sites that can’t really articulate how they weight an org with more top end talent vs. one with more depth, they just stick a finger in the wind and guess.   

Every model is wrong, good models are able to identify and articulate where and how they are most likely wrong

[Frobby]

Fangraphs valued the Red Sox farm system at $263.5 mm, third of the 15 teams they’ve evaluated so far.   That’s rather amazing because they valued the Red Sox at only $124 mm last year.   Not great news if you’re an Orioles fan, even though our system is ranked higher.   1B Triston Casas, SS Marcelo Mayer, and 2B Ned Yorke all graded out at 55, worth $46 mm each.  Last year Casas was graded 50 (worth $28 mm) and Yorke 40+ (worth $4 mm).    So, that’s $60 mm of upgraded evaluations right there, plus the Mayer addition.  That pretty much accounts for the whole increase.  

[Frobby]

Tampa came out today, 59 prospects valued at $226 mm.   They’re a very deep system, not much top end talent after several graduations last year.   Shane Baz gets a 60 FV, nobody else above 50.   Still, the depth is impressive.  

[Frobby]

Fangraphs finally finished off its 2022 farm system evaluations.   A lot of them are moot by now, including players who have graduated from prospect status after opening day.   But in any event, the top 5 are:

BAL $322 mm

PIT $294 mm

BOS $263.5 mm

SEA $241.5 mm

TEX $238.5 mm

For the Orioles, Rutschman was worth $112 mm by himself, better than the entirety of a few bottom feeder systems:

CWS $86.5 mm

ATL $92.5 mm

OAK $102 mm

LAA $107 mm

COL $109.5 mm

In terms of total prospects ranked at 35+ FV or higher, the O’s ranked 10th with 45 such prospects.   So, their system isn’t super-deep, but it’s solid.  The deepest systems are Pittsburgh (61) and Tampa Bay (59).   The White Sox (28) and Nationals (29) are the shallowest.   

The O’s 2023 ranking will take a big hit with Rutschman’s graduation and possibly others, but the incoming 1:1 and other top 2022 picks should help keep the O’s in the top 5 or so, I’d guess.  
 

 

 

[Just Regular]

In terms of staying near the top of this valuation, the biggest fork in the road will be Gunnar and the 44 Days Over-Under (or however Eric Longenhagen draws a line), and if Gunnar's 2022 in its entirety earns him 60-65-70 status should he still be in this particular shell game.

In praise of Pittsburgh, something I learned recently is back in the day, just like the Astros swiped Yordan Alvarez off a Dodgers complex team, the Pirates likewise acquired Oneil Cruz from LAD at a very early stage in his development.    I am going to guess Andrew Friedman has since closed whatever that open backdoor was.

I haven't looked up yet when in the timeline that happened compared to their ridiculous Chris Archer deal making Tampa a stronger rival to the Early Adley Teams.     But these three months Glasnow-Baz-Meadows may not be the roadblock to sixth-best AL team they probably will be other summers.

Congrats to Eric Longenhagen!   Good wishes here for him to be able to articulate, and for David Appelman to provide, the help he needs to match the rhythm of a year.    He basically tries doing Tony Orioles scale stuff 30X.

[Frobby]

On 7/11/2022 at 2:09 PM, Just Regular said:

 

Congrats to Eric Longenhagen!   Good wishes here for him to be able to articulate, and for David Appelman to provide, the help he needs to match the rhythm of a year.    He basically tries doing Tony Orioles scale stuff 30X.

He really got hosed this season when Kevin Goldstein left for the Twins and Tess Taruskin) who really hadn’t been on the scene that long) “took a break” due to “personal stuff” (paraphrasing Longenhagen’s explanation).   So he’s been doing the job of three people since March.  

[Just Regular]

His numbers wiggled a little in the link he gave in the "I'm Done" piece published today.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

Intro highlighted that 60 of the TBR 316 is about to vanish in another Baz start or two.

He gets about 5 days downtime before Mike Elias starts deploying one of the biggest draft pools in MLB history.

[Just Regular]

Longenhagen article this afternoon says BOARD now reflects 2022 draftees; BAL still #1 in a group of 4 about $50mm or more ahead of the other 26.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&pageitems=200&pg=0&team=&pos=&filter=

No Bats higher than 60; if in late 2022 anyone can earn the 60 to 70 bump as Adley did, that grade alone gives a $50mm bump.

[Frobby]

$349 mm valuation is very healthy.   We’ll see if anyone gets called up in time to exit the list before the season ends.