Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Frobby]

A little video interview of Kjerstad and his teammate Conley about hitting inside the park homers in the same game:

https://www.mlb.com/video/conley-kjerstad-talk-fall-league

Now hitting .404 with a 1.174 OPS in 10 AFL games.   

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

How does his inside the park HR time today stack up. Looked like low 14 sec to me.

I'd have to time him going to first on a play that he has to really has to sprint.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law was not too impressed with what he saw from Kjerstad in the AFL. Not sure when he saw him, since he has been hitting pretty much every day, but in the article he said that he saw every team at least three times.

• Several scouts told me that Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad looked good in the first week of play, but I saw more of the same rust that I saw from him during the regular season. He was behind good velocity and had some trouble picking up off-speed stuff, even from right-handers. I’m inclined to give him a pass on the entire 2022 season, as he missed all of 2020 after the pandemic began and all of 2021 due to myocarditis, going about 27 months between game at-bats. I’m still rooting for him but also concerned that he had such trouble with average major-league stuff every time I saw him.

I definitely agree that he gets a full pass on this entire season, hopefully he hits the ground running in Spring Training and forces his way up to Norfolk from Bowie by midseason.

I'll be honest, I give more weight to Law's comments then the numbers he's putting up against sub par AFL pitching. Not what any of us wanted to hear but I'm not ready to make a full decision on him until after next season.

I don't put a ton of weight into AFL numbers though obviously playing well is better than struggling. Most team do not send out their better pitching prospects unless they missed a bunch of time and they are trying to make up some innings. 

Either way, Kjerstad just needs to keep getting PAs.

[Frobby]

That’s kind of a buzzkill comment from Law, but three looks is a pretty good basis for his comment.   And, he’s not holding it against Kjerstad much, saying he really wants to wait until next year to judge him.  I’m still glad that Kjerstad is getting in the reps and putting up good numbers, aside from the strikeouts.  

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law was not too impressed with what he saw from Kjerstad in the AFL. Not sure when he saw him, since he has been hitting pretty much every day, but in the article he said that he saw every team at least three times.

• Several scouts told me that Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad looked good in the first week of play, but I saw more of the same rust that I saw from him during the regular season. He was behind good velocity and had some trouble picking up off-speed stuff, even from right-handers. I’m inclined to give him a pass on the entire 2022 season, as he missed all of 2020 after the pandemic began and all of 2021 due to myocarditis, going about 27 months between game at-bats. I’m still rooting for him but also concerned that he had such trouble with average major-league stuff every time I saw him.

I definitely agree that he gets a full pass on this entire season, hopefully he hits the ground running in Spring Training and forces his way up to Norfolk from Bowie by midseason.

Keith Law has a rather obvious anti-Baltimore bias. With him the glass is always half empty. Spinning Kjerstad's AFL performance in a negative direction fits his well established pattern. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Keith Law has a rather obvious anti-Baltimore bias. With him the glass is always half empty. Spinning Kjerstad's AFL performance in a negative direction fits his well established pattern. 

I disagree.  Law is the same way with all the teams.  He tends to be a guy who notices the flaws in players rather than only dwelling on their good attributes.  I don’t take everything he says as gospel, but I like getting his perspective.   He was very high on Joey Ortiz last year, and turned out to be on target with him.  

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Keith Law has a rather obvious anti-Baltimore bias. With him the glass is always half empty. Spinning Kjerstad's AFL performance in a negative direction fits his well established pattern. 

I don't think Law has a bias. I think he's a tough grader, which most scouts should be. I don't always agree with analysis, but then again, scouts don't always agree with each other on players. 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I disagree.  Law is the same way with all the teams.  He tends to be a guy who notices the flaws in players rather than only dwelling on their good attributes.  I don’t take everything he says as gospel, but I like getting his perspective.   He was very high on Joey Ortiz last year, and turned out to be on target with him.  

I read the Athletic regularly and he is a frequent contributor. I am struck by his tendency to short sell the O's prospects. Now, am I a bit sensitive? Perhaps. It's an opinion I'll be rather difficult to dissuade from. The cold, dark reality of player development is painful enough. Having Debby Downer tell you all the flaws in a prospect who has battled back from what Heston had handed to him doesn't give me much to like about Ol' Keith. That might make me a homer... but I'm ok with it.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I read the Athletic regularly and he is a frequent contributor. I am struck by his tendency to short sell the O's prospects. Now, am I a bit sensitive? Perhaps. It's an opinion I'll be rather difficult to dissuade from. The cold, dark reality of player development is painful enough. Having Debby Downer tell you all the flaws in a prospect who has battled back from what Heston had handed to him doesn't give me much to like about Ol' Keith. That might make me a homer... but I'm ok with it.

Well I imagine I annoy you at times too then, because I try to give as accurate an evaluation as I can on Orioles prospects which includes when it's not what Orioles fan might want to hear. 

Personally, I'd rather hear an accurate assessment vs the Pollyanna "scouting approach" from some out there that over rate prospects and their tools.

[Jim'sKid26]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well I imagine I annoy you at times too then, because I try to give as accurate an evaluation as I can on Orioles prospects which includes when it's not what Orioles fan might want to hear. 

Personally, I'd rather hear an accurate assessment vs the Pollyanna "scouting approach" from some out there that over rate prospects and their tools.

Yes you do annoy me!  But that's for a number of reasons and none of them are worth stating here. What is worth stating regarding your approach to player assessment is that you are evidence based and consistent and that lends itself to credibility. I really appreciate what you and your colleagues do to give us on this board a great idea of the farm system with all it's gems and warts. I like what you do. I hope you keep doing it. 

I am also not a fan of the "pollyanna" approach to scouting and player assessment. As I'm sure you can see from my posts. I tend to like data. If you were to read Law's stuff with an eye toward why he holds some of the opinions he holds and what exactly he's basing his assessments on, I think you would agree that it is generally a data free zone. 

Once again, these are my opinions. I'm just not a big Keith Law fan. I suspect I'm not the only one. 

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Several scouts told me that Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad looked good in the first week of play

 

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I give me weight to Law's comments that he heard from scouts then the numbers he's putting up against sub par AFL pitching.

I'm not sure I follow this comment. 

I take Law at his word that several scouts (assuming professionals from other teams) shared good assessments of Kjerstad.  And I take Law at his word that he doesn't share that level of optimism.  Namely that Kjerstad is late of high velo and can't adjust to off-speed pitches.  Both are vital in today's game.

Kjerstad's elevated K rate says that he does in fact have some degree of trouble with pitching (advanced or otherwise in the AFL).  But his power numbers say he can hit the ball hard too.  He needs to start in AA next year.  Seems to have the same vibe as Fabian where he can crush mistake pitches and meat FBs.  But needs to face higher level pitching to develop as a hitter.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

 

I'm not sure I follow this comment. 

I take Law at his word that several scouts (assuming professionals from other teams) shared good assessments of Kjerstad.  And I take Law at his word that he doesn't share that level of optimism.  Namely that Kjerstad is late of high velo and can't adjust to off-speed pitches.  Both are vital in today's game.

Kjerstad's elevated K rate says that he does in fact have some degree of trouble with pitching (advanced or otherwise in the AFL).  But his power numbers say he can hit the ball hard too.  He needs to start in AA next year.  Seems to have the same vibe as Fabian where he can crush mistake pitches and meat FBs.  But needs to face higher level pitching to develop as a hitter.

That what happens when I type quickly and don't reread my comments. All I was saying is I give more weight to Law's comments on Kjerstad not hitting certain pitches hard vs getting to excited over him putting good numbers up overall in a good hitter's environment.

Saying that, I agree with everything you are saying here. We'll know a lot more about Kjerstad after next year.

[RZNJ]

You can do pros and cons here.

Pros - 

1. Kjerstad is playing virtually everyday and getting his reps

2. He seems to be pulling the ball more and hitting the ball in the air more.

    3 of his homers have been to RF and yesterday all of his hits were to the RF side of 2B and none were ground balls.

3. He seems to be running well.  While not a speedster he seems to not be a clogger at all. 

 

Cons

1. The ball travels well in Arizona and there are a lot of pitchers with little or no experience in AA so the level of pitching is maybe High A.  

2. 2 walks against 13 strikeouts is not a good ratio.  He's striking out about 25% of the time against mediocre pitching

 

Conclusions - Same as everyone else.  It's better to see him doing well than doing poorly.   The one thing he didn't show, even at Delmarva was the ability to pull the ball in the air and he's been doing that in Arizona.   I questioned the bat speed even when he was hitting .463 in Delmarva because of the high ground ball rate and the amount of balls, it seemed, he was hitting to LF.

While I'd like to see a better walk:strikeout ratio, I'll take solace from the fact that he seems to be turning on the ball better in the AFL and getting the ball in the air more.   Keith Law sees "rust" in Kjerstad.   That is better than saying he just thinks this is what he is.   Those comments suggest that he thinks there's something better in there.

Edited October 20, 2022 by RZNJ

[mhd24]

Another blurb from Law regarding Nick Richmond:

"The Tigers released right-hander Nick Richmond last winter after the then-23-year-old had a nondescript season in the Gulf Coast League, but he went out and worked on his delivery on his own over the winter and saw a big velocity gain, leading the Orioles to sign him as a minor-league free agent. He’s working in relief in Arizona, and I saw just two pitches, but both were above-average offerings, with a fastball at 94-95 mph and a hard slider at 85-86 mph. He had a modest platoon split after he signed with Baltimore in early June, so he might just be a right-on-right reliever, but there’s something here. For Detroit to have him and let him go for nothing is indicative of what new GM Scott Harris has to try to change there"

Edited October 19, 2022 by mhd24

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Another blurb from Law regarding Nick Richmond:

"The Tigers released right-hander Nick Richmond last winter after the then-23-year-old had a nondescript season in the Gulf Coast League, but he went out and worked on his delivery on his own over the winter and saw a big velocity gain, leading the Orioles to sign him as a minor-league free agent. He’s working in relief in Arizona, and I saw just two pitches, but both were above-average offerings, with a fastball at 94-95 mph and a hard slider at 85-86 mph. He had a modest platoon split after he signed with Baltimore in early June, so he might just be a right-on-right reliever, but there’s something here. For Detroit to have him and let him go for nothing is indicative of what new GM Scott Harris has to try to change there"

Note to Keith Law. If we are talking velo, I don’t think a 94-95 mph fastball for a reliever is above average anymore.