Why isn’t Stowers here?

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Moves to make

• Bench Odor... Urias at 2B (Vavra can back him up)... Or even DFA Odor
• Promote Gunnar for 3B (Urias can back him up when not playing 2B)
• DFA Phillips... Promote Stowers, have him DH every day

My only concern with that is the impact on infield defense. Will it improve or suffer?

 

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

SSS

Then let Urias and Vavra share duties at 2B

Are you kidding me?

1st, Hyde isn’t benching Odor. It’s not happening so you are wasting time saying it.

2nd, Elias traded and agreed to pay approximately $600,000 for Phillips knowing exactly who he is. You actually expect them to cut him now and eat that? You don’t know the Orioles

3rd Vavra minor league OBP is .410 and his OPS is .878. Plus he’s producing. His minor league numbers suggest he’s a capable MLB hitter so it isn’t a SSS!

4th  Stowers is a .360 OBP and around 900 OPS. 
 

So why you are starving for Stowers over Vavra at DH is not supported statistically. 

McKenna is playing well despite playing sporadically. And Vavra seems to be hitting well despite being a DH. A lot of guys don’t play well in a part time role and not all guys can thrive as a DH. 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I thought some were comping him to DJ Stewart? It appears they like Vavra better to replace Mancini. The question is whether Stowers is an upgrade over Odor.

His AAA numbers are good but not elite. Stowers has a K problem and the OBP isnt great. It may just be a case of going with the known quantity versus the risk that he will struggle in the adjustment. Especially when you consider the net impact including defense. I'm not really advocating this, just a guess at the organization's thinking. Then again, they could call him up next week or when rosters expand.

 

Whhhhhhhaaaaaattttttttt??????????????

Are you looking at the right guy? Stowers has a .367 OBP, .553 SLG for a .920 OPs in AAA. That's not good? He has a 140 wRC+ which shows him significantly better than the league.

Does he strike out a lot, sure, but he's also cut his K rate to a career best 23.9% vs 30.4% last year in AA.

The only thing that makes sense to keep him down is they don't want to sit Vavra right now and they don't think he can handle second base defensively. 

While he may need some time to adjust to major league pitching, I don't think anyone thinks he's not better than what Odor does offensively. 

Defensively, Stowers is about average with an average arm in RF. He moves good well enough to fill in at center, but he will be below average there. It will be interesting to see his burst speeds when that's available since I never get the feeling he gets great jumps. 

Saying that, his bat will play in the majors, but he's below McKenna an Phillips defensively so until they can remove Odor from second base (and I think Vavra can't be that bad that his bat doesn't make him better than Odor overall), there is no place for Stowers to play everyday.

Personally I think you send Odor to the bench, let Vavra take over 2B, and move Stowers into RF and let him rotate with Santander between RF and DH.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Elias cares about years of control in regards to value. Maybe he’s not here depending on what they do with Santander and Mullins. Plus the progression of Cowser, Kjerstad, etc. If he’s surplus he’s more valuable with the extra control. 
 

And as I said, Nevin is a rookie who isn’t really getting a chance to prove he can play here and neither is McKenna who is playing well in limited opportunities. Mainly because Hyde’s preference to play mediocre veteran like Odor and Phillips. Odor has his moments but can’t hit any other time and Phillips has had 4 or 5 years of poor batting numbers but he and his salary was brought in over promoting Stowers. Fan are clamoring for him to be here but management obviously isn’t at this point. 

Nevin is not a major leaguer and McKenna is being used just fine in matchup that gives him the best chance to succeed with hi limited hit skill.

[EdwinRip]

Much better prospects than Stowers with similar AAA numbers have come to the majors and done absolutely nothing.  Kelenic and Torkelson come to mind for recent examples.  Witt and Rutschman also struggled initially.  I think the likelihood that Stowers comes up and is an upgrade is much lower than people think.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Whhhhhhhaaaaaattttttttt??????????????

Are you looking ta the right guy? Stowers has a .367 OBP, .553 SLG for a .920 OPs in AAA. That's not good? He has a 140 wRC+ which shows him significantly better than the league.

Does he strike out a lot, sure, but he's also cut his K rate to a career best 23.9% vs 30.4% last year in AA.

The only thing that makes sense to keep him down is they don't want to sit Vavra right now and they don't think he can handle second base defensively. 

While he may need some time to adjust to major league pitching, I don't think anyone thinks he's not better than what Odor does offensively. 

Defensively, Stowers is about average with an average arm in RF. He moves good well enough to fill in at center, but he will be below average there. It will be interesting to see his burst speeds when that's available since I never get the feeling he gets great jumps. 

Saying that, his bat will play in the majors, but he's below McKenna an Phillips defensively so until they can remove Odor from second base (and I think Vavra can't be that bad that his bat doesn't make him better than Odor overall), there is no place for Stowers to play everyday.

Personally I think you send Odor to the bench, let Vavra take over 2B, and move Stowers into RF and let him rotate with Santander between RF and DH.

Tony …they are playing the clock game. Here and Twitter people are acting like they need to pull out all the stops. They simply aren’t going to do that. Odor is a subpar hitter in 85% of his at bats. His defense is average but they are pumping his ability to turn double play.

I feel the same about Phillips as he has a track record of poor offensive contributions. He does have speed and defense. But, Elias committed $600,000 when they got him. So they aren’t going to cut him.

McKenna and Nevin seem to be producing lately despite the lack of playing time. In Nevin’s case he can’t even get a whole game of play every two weeks. I see him as the only guy that could be sent down. Why start the clock on a guy who is going to ride the pine. Mullins, Santander, and Hays play nearly everyday. So Stowers isn’t playing and it’s stupid to start the clock under those circumstances.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Much better prospects than Stowers with similar AAA numbers have come to the majors and done absolutely nothing.  Kelenic and Torkelson come to mind for recent examples.  Witt and Rutschman also struggled initially.  I think the likelihood that Stowers comes up and is an upgrade is much lower than people think.

Yes and his strikeout difficulties are almost certainly to be exploited in the majors so despite improvement this season probably get worse up here. 

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Nevin is not a major leaguer and McKenna is being used just fine in matchup that gives him the best chance to succeed with hi limited hit skill.

Nevin is fine for the role he’s being used in. His minor league numbers suggest a .270ish hitter with a near .800 OPS. He’s gotten only 160 ABs in the majors. I’m not saying he amounts to anything. Just that he hasn’t been give a fair shake and neither has McKenna.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Much better prospects than Stowers with similar AAA numbers have come to the majors and done absolutely nothing.  Kelenic and Torkelson come to mind for recent examples.  Witt and Rutschman also struggled initially.  I think the likelihood that Stowers comes up and is an upgrade is much lower than people think.

C'mon.  I mean, propping up Kelenic and Tork as guys with top billing who have done absolutely nothing isn't a strong argument to make.  Using that logic, you could justify holding any prospect down out of fear that they won't be good coming up.

Spreading at bats that would go to McKenna, Odor and Nevin to Vavra and Stowers is a low bar to hurdle, really.  I think you might be inferring that Stowers coming up and OPSing .900 is unlikely and I'd agree with that.  But asking to be an upgrade offensively over any of those three guys isn't asking for a lot.  And like Tony says, he's not a butcher with the glove.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Nevin is fine for the role he’s being used in. 

Not when there are better options available.  Nevin shouldn't be playing anywhere over Vavra.  

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Much better prospects than Stowers with similar AAA numbers have come to the majors and done absolutely nothing.  Kelenic and Torkelson come to mind for recent examples.  Witt and Rutschman also struggled initially.  I think the likelihood that Stowers comes up and is an upgrade is much lower than people think.

Any clamor I have to see Gunnar-Westburg-Stowers is mostly based on the expectation MLB pitchers are going to dominate them for a little while, and leaning into Elias' reasonably low expectations for 2022's team, this season is the time to get that done.

It is certainly in play that even a better on paper 2023 team won't have playoff odds this good in mid-August, making these weeks strategically rich in addition to a whole lot of fun.    Regular plug that except for rusty John Means for ~40 innings and the benefit of most of a rookie season for talented kids, there is nearly nothing the 2023 Orioles have that the 2022 Orioles don't also have.     Especially if you believe Angelos infighting means the tool of money is bringing the 2023 team bupkus.

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Whhhhhhhaaaaaattttttttt??????????????

Are you looking at the right guy? Stowers has a .367 OBP, .553 SLG for a .920 OPs in AAA. That's not good? He has a 140 wRC+ which shows him significantly better than the league.

Does he strike out a lot, sure, but he's also cut his K rate to a career best 23.9% vs 30.4% last year in AA.

The only thing that makes sense to keep him down is they don't want to sit Vavra right now and they don't think he can handle second base defensively. 

While he may need some time to adjust to major league pitching, I don't think anyone thinks he's not better than what Odor does offensively. 

Defensively, Stowers is about average with an average arm in RF. He moves good well enough to fill in at center, but he will be below average there. It will be interesting to see his burst speeds when that's available since I never get the feeling he gets great jumps. 

Saying that, his bat will play in the majors, but he's below McKenna an Phillips defensively so until they can remove Odor from second base (and I think Vavra can't be that bad that his bat doesn't make him better than Odor overall), there is no place for Stowers to play everyday.

Personally I think you send Odor to the bench, let Vavra take over 2B, and move Stowers into RF and let him rotate with Santander between RF and DH.

I said his AAA numbers are good, just not elite-good. I definitely think he would be an upgrade offensively over Odor. Question is how much that would be negated by Vavra's defense. There may be some reasons to think he might struggle. To be clear, I am for calling up Stowers, just thinking out loud about the possible reasons for keeping him down.

 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I leave it to the experts.   They want these guys as fully baked as possible so that they are getting the best possible 6 years (or 6+) they can get.   Getting 6 months or a year of growing pains at the ML level just means that's less productive time you're getting up here.   There's no way of telling whether Henderson or whoever becomes a better ML player by getting an extra 2 months in the minors this year or by getting that time in the majors.    Is he able to better make adjustments with less pressure?   We can agree that you can't learn how to hit ML pitching unless you are facing ML pitching.   I haven't got all the answers.    You seem to.

I

So, if service time didn’t exist, you think all of these guys would still be in the minors, right?

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, if service time didn’t exist, you think all of these guys would still be in the minors, right?

I think the service time is effecting Henderson but I also believe that all doors lead to Odor and that Hyde/Elias are very weary of making the move of Odor to the bench.   I don't believe service time is the reason Stowers is not here.    Westburg has been slumping for a month so I think it's a moot point with him.

Henderson to 3B and Urias to 2B is a natural move.  No argument there.   On paper, it's a no brainer!!

I do believe that Elias wants these guys as fully developed in the minor league system as possible before bringing them up.

Edited August 11, 2022 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Tony …they are playing the clock game. Here and Twitter people are acting like they need to pull out all the stops. They simply aren’t going to do that. Odor is a subpar hitter in 85% of his at bats. His defense is average but they are pumping his ability to turn double play.

I feel the same about Phillips as he has a track record of poor offensive contributions. He does have speed and defense. But, Elias committed $600,000 when they got him. So they aren’t going to cut him.

McKenna and Nevin seem to be producing lately despite the lack of playing time. In Nevin’s case he can’t even get a whole game of play every two weeks. I see him as the only guy that could be sent down. Why start the clock on a guy who is going to ride the pine. Mullins, Santander, and Hays play nearly everyday. So Stowers isn’t playing and it’s stupid to start the clock under those circumstances.

I'm not hand-wringing over Stowers not being on the team, but I do think he makes the team better. Right now, the Orioles are winning with what they got, so they probably don't feel a need to change the starting lineup significantly.

As for Odor, literally the only stat I could find that makes him Odor useful even defensively is DPR (double play runs) which is part of the UZR equation and he ranks at 1.1 runs saved. 

Here is the definition of DPR: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

By the Fielding Bible's standard he's been worth 0 rGBD (runs saved) for double plays. rGBD is part of the formula for DRS (Defensive Runs Saved).

His overall defensive values are all below average in every metric you use: UZR/150 (-4.8), DRS (-5), OAA (-4) and dWAR (-0.9).

So even if you value the 1.1 runs saved throughout the season from double plays if you go by the UZR metric, he still offsets that with his poor range and errors.

Now the real question is, is Vavra that bad at 2B that he would significantly down grade the defense from Odor? I'll be honest, I don't know the answer. I do feel he has a below average arm and I was never impressed with Vavra overall at second base, but I believe his bat can overcome his deficiencies there and adding Stowers bat over Odor is going to make the team better.

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Nevin is fine for the role he’s being used in. His minor league numbers suggest a .270ish hitter with a near .800 OPS. He’s gotten only 160 ABs in the majors. I’m not saying he amounts to anything. Just that he hasn’t been give a fair shake and neither has McKenna.

In what world does a .244/.324/.413/.736 AAA slash line in 559 PAs and a .251/.345/.399/.744 in 540 AA PAs translate to a near .800 OPs hitter in the major leagues? 

Nevin is not a good major league hitter nor does he bring value defensively at 3B. Your fascination with him and McKenna (who has proved who he is and what's he's not) boggles my mind.