Expectations, plus & minus

[now]

Obviously the team as a whole greatly exceeded expectations this season.

Individually also, it makes sense that we have seen more pleasant surprises than disappointments. In no particular order, here are the players that stood out most for me in both categories. It's not so much about performance per se, but relative to what was hoped, expected or projected. A numbers-based analysis would be interesting, but for now here's my gut take:

most pleasant surprises: Mateo, Stowers, Bradish, Bautista, Voth, Perez, Henderson

most disappointing: Hays, Mountcastle

It's the latter category that's galling, at the end of a near-miss season. I would definitely advocate trading Hays. I like Mountcastle's defense and hot streaks, but for 1B we need a bigger bat. 

[RZNJ]

As others have said, it’s not so much that Hays or Mountcastle need to be replaced.  We just better players that push them lower in the lineup.  Having said that, I’m okay starting next season with Stowers, Hays, Mullins, and Santander, hoping Cowser looks so good at AAA that he’s ready to push the weakest link out.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, now said:

Obviously the team as a whole greatly exceeded expectations this season.

Individually also, it makes sense that we have seen more pleasant surprises than disappointments. In no particular order, here are the players that stood out most for me in both categories. It's not so much about performance per se, but relative to what was hoped, expected or projected. A numbers-based analysis would be interesting, but for now here's my gut take:

most pleasant surprises: Mateo, Stowers, Bradish, Bautista, Voth, Perez, Henderson

most disappointing: Hays, Mountcastle

It's the latter category that's galling, at the end of a near-miss season. I would definitely advocate trading Hays. I like Mountcastle's defense and hot streaks, but for 1B we need a bigger bat. 

I don't want to trade Hays.  I just want him to go on the IL when he gets hurt.

I don't see Mountcastle leaving.  He is only 25.  He can still improve.  But I would have Westburg learn to play  1B.  A little competition might put a fire under someone.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

As others have said, it’s not so much that Hays or Mountcastle need to be replaced.  We just better players that push them lower in the lineup.  Having said that, I’m okay starting next season with Stowers, Hays, Mullins, and Santander, hoping Cowser looks so good at AAA that he’s ready to push the weakest link out.

Vavra?

[Sports Guy]

At least Mountcastle just had one of those bad luck years.  Reason to think he can bounce back.

I don’t have lot of hope for Hays to be healthy and productive as an everyday player.  I’m good with him as the 4th OFer though.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Vavra?

Fighting for a roster spot next spring.   There’s a chance he could find himself as the starting 2B or LF.  More likely, he’s a reserve but his limitation to 2B in the infield makes it tough.  

[jamalshw]

I would say Hays' second half was certainly disappointing, but if you were to ask me at the start of the season if I think he ends the year as a 2 WAR player with a OPS+ around 103, I would've probably told you that sounded about right. I likely would have guessed something more like 105-110 OPS+, but he's not that far off that. He had a 106 OPS+ last year.  

Ultimately, I think he is a league average (albeit streaky) hitter with good defense in the corner and sufficient defense in CF. He's a lower OBP guy which is frustrating, but I wouldn't look to trade him unless the Orioles get good value for him as he's still a useful 2 WAR player. That said, he's also not likely to be anything more than what he was this year so I wouldn't lose sleep if he was dealt. 

Ideally, he's back in LF (or RF depending on the ballpark) for the Orioles next year, but hitting in the 7-8 hole. 

As for Mountcastle, he does have good defense at 1B, but his position affords him a lot less flexibility when it comes to offensive mediocrity. He's not much younger than Hays, but I do think there's more upside left for Mountcastle whereas I think Hays is what he is. I'd like to see if Mountcastle can take a step forward next year and would give him the one more year to do that, but again, if he fetches more than I expect in a trade market (I don't see him having a ton of value at the moment given the mediocre season and lack of defensive flexibility) I don't lose sleep over him going somewhere else. 

I do think he's miscast as a middle of the order bat. I would love a dream lineup that added Trea Turner (or another right-handed bat near the top) and pushed guys like Mountcastle and Hays down, looking something like: 

Mullins, Turner, Rutshcman, Henderson, Santander, Mountcastle, Stowers, Hays, Westburg/Urias/Ortiz/etc.  

Given the infield prospects we have, I don't expect something like that but would be onboard with that, and then using Mateo, Urias, Westburg, and/or Ortiz in trade talks. 

 

But....back to the point of the OP. Hays and Mountcastle didn't take steps forward as I hoped, but Hays kinda met expectations (overall) for me and I still have some hope for Mountcastle as this may have been a bit of a sophomore slump. 

For me, there aren't too many player disappointments this year that weren't health related (primarily Rodriguez). I was disappointed we saw as much of Nevin, Chirinos and Owings, Odor, etc as we did, but that's about it. 

[jamalshw]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fighting for a roster spot next spring.   There’s a chance he could find himself as the starting 2B or LF.  More likely, he’s a reserve but his limitation to 2B in the infield makes it tough.  

Some of whether he fits on the team depends on what the Orioles do with Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg and Mateo (and any other players that are added). I think Vavra could fit well as a reserve 2B/OF option. If we see more of Henderson or someone else at SS with Mateo as more of a bench piece, a bench of McKenna, Mateo, Vavra and a competent backup catcher could be interesting. Or, if Henderson becomes the everyday 3B, his ability to play SS minimizes the need for a SS on the bench. 

The options that Elias and company have at the moment make this offseason super exciting. Here's hoping it lives up to the hype and we aren't talking about someone like Taylor Teagarden during the winter meetings. 

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, now said:

most disappointing: Hays, Mountcastle

...

I would definitely advocate trading Hays.

Is this just a round-about way of saying that we need to get rid of Hays? If he's not any good, he can't play here, we can't expect other teams to offer the Orioles something of value in return.

I think he was playing at about 80% health most of the year.  I also think that "injury-prone" is mostly backward looking, that many injuries are bad luck and even repeated injuries that have healed may not predict future injuries.  You can find players who were labeled fragile who then ended up being healthy and great for years (example: Paul Molitor). There's clearly talent there with Hays, but I wouldn't blame them if they decided it's time to move on and find an option that is more likely to produce.

Edited October 3, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[wildcard]

Who would replace Hays in the enlarged LF at Camden?   

- Cowser is suppose to have the range and the bat.  But he still needs some time at AAA.   

-Westburg speed is rated at 55 as is his arm.   He had over 100 RBI and is ready for a shot at the majors.   But he has not played the outfield.

Hays had a 830 OPS on June 25th before he got hurt.  With his speed and arm he is the guy of LF when healthy.   Just don't play him hurt.

See how Hays plays next season and how Cowser develops.   And give Westburg some time in LF in ST.

[Pickles]

I'll rank them in order by how much they exceeded my expectations.

1. Bautista: I'd barely heard of this guy coming into the season.  He was one of the best relievers in baseball.

2. Mateo: I liked what I saw last year and was in favor of giving him an everyday chance at SS, but I didn't expect that kind of value, primarily, of course, from his glove.

3. Rutschman: My expectations were tempered a bit just by practicality, but he was everything his most wildest supporters claimed he was, and then some.

4. Cionel Perez. Waiver wire guy who had an excellent season.

5. Santander: Really established himself as a professional hitter, and greatly improved his selectivity, which isn't something you see every day.

[Aristotelian]

Stowers seemed as advertised. What was surprising there? 

Henderson was biggest surprise if you go by his prospect status at the beginning of the year. Agree with Mateo, Voth, Perez. Bautista I always thought was interesting and would be fine if he could throw strikes. Obviously, he was a lot better than fine.

Santander was somewhat surprising. Added 35 points to OBP and raised OPS+ by 26 points after a very meh year in '21. 

I'd put Urias in the disappointing column, albeit only slightly. His defense was actually better than I expected. 

 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who would replace Hays in the enlarged LF at Camden?   

- Cowser is suppose to have the range and the bat.  But he still needs some time at AAA.   

-Westburg speed is rated at 55 as is his arm.   He had over 100 RBI and is ready for a shot at the majors.   But he has not played the outfield.

Hays had a 830 OPS on June 25th before he got hurt.  With his speed and arm he is the guy of LF when healthy.   Just don't play him hurt.

See how Hays plays next season and how Cowser develops.   And give Westburg some time in LF in ST.

I think the same logic applies to Hays, and Mateo, and Urias imo.  There's no reason to trade these guys.  They're all cheap and have years of team control remaining.  I think some are just looking at it as if this offseason is a special one and things MUST be done "to compete."

[Jim'sKid26]

Hayes is a very good 4th OF on a playoff team. He is an average, and very streaky, everyday OF on mid level team. 

IMHO the Of need to find a MoO bat to play corner OF and either move Hayes in a deal for Pitching or keep him as a 4th OF and try to get him lots of ABs against LH pitching.

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think the same logic applies to Hays, and Mateo, and Urias imo.  There's no reason to trade these guys.  They're all cheap and have years of team control remaining.  I think some are just looking at it as if this offseason is a special one and things MUST be done "to compete."

Its a good point.  The O's are 9th in run scored in the AL.  128 runs behind the Yankees.   If the O's plan is to win the division they have to improve offensively.  Where do that improvement come from?

1) A full season of Adley and Gunnar.

2) Westburg looks like an everyday player somewhere.  He seem versatile enough to play 1B/2B/3B.  I don't think he plays much SS with Mateo, Gunnar and Ortiz available.  Westburg may be able to play some corner OF and he can DH.  He looks like he will hit, maybe a middle of the order bat.

3)A full year of Stowers basically replacing Mancini's bat and playing RF/DH with Santander.  I don't know if that adds to the offense but it probably keeps it even.

4)  There is greater depth when guys get hurt or non perform with  Ortiz, Cowser and Norby.

5) Add a backup catcher that can field and hit.   Got to be better than Chirinos and Bemboom offensively.

Is that enough?   Beats me.

Edited October 3, 2022 by wildcard