Orioles 2022 #20 Prospect - Noah Denoyer - RHP

[Tony-OH]

Noah Denoyer
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th): 24
2022 Level: A+/AA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 50/55
Curveball: 55/60
Change: 45/50
Slider: 40/45
Command: 40/45

Most Likely Future Role: Multi-inning reliever
Ceiling: #4 starter

What we know: Signed as undrafted free agent after the after the 2019 draft, Denoyer is not your everyday free agent signing. It appears that he’s finally gotten the Orioles attention after they added him to the 40-man roster this offseason instead of risking losing him in the Rule 5 draft. Considering the Orioles used him in bulk relief most of the year getting only three starts in his 14 appearances at Bowie, you would think they weren’t convinced on his prospect status.

They should be because he’s been an interesting guy to watch this year develop. His fastball comes in at 93-96 MPH on most days, though he can drop down as low as 92 on occasion. He doesn’t get a ton of swing and miss but he uses it well around the strike zone. His 12-6 curveball is his out pitch and he can get a lot of swing and miss in the zone on the pitch. He'll roll it occasionally, but he can get good late break. He shows some feel for the  change-up, but it’s inconsistent. He’ll flash a plus one at times with good arm side run and depth. He can use pretty effectively against left-handers. The slider is his 4^th offering and it’s been very inconsistent this year.

While Denoyer has the repertoire of a starter, he has a bit of a herky-jerky delivery that helps with some deception, but also can contribute to his inconsistencies from outing to outing. The Orioles only let him throw over 80 pitches in one of his appearances and he usually only threw 3-4 innings.

The quality of stuff shows in his 17.4% swinging strike rate that was only behind Nick Vespi and DL Hall among pitchers at AA or AAA. Overall he held batters to a .194/.251/.322/.573 slash line with an impressive 99-17 K-BB ratio in 71.2 IP.     

What we don’t know: Can he continue to develop the ability to go deeper into a games and become a legitimate starting pitcher candidate? Will he pick up velocity if he pitches 1-2 innings vs the 3-4 he typically pitched last year?

What we think: The Orioles thought enough of the 6-5 Denoyer to send him to the AFL to get some of the innings he lost this season while on the IL, and then added him to the 40-man. Denoyer is an interesting guy because the more you watched him this year, the better he got. The Orioles will most likely start him at Norfolk next season and it will be interesting to see if they try to develop him as starting pitching depth, or multi-inning relieve depth. He definitely has a good chance of pitching in the big league next season at some point.

[btdart20]

Wow...  I really thought, even with his injury, Baumler would slot in ahead of Denoyer.

Denoyer has certainly been under the radar this year.  I knew he was posting some solid numbers but wasn't sure what to make of them.  He AFL stats were ok too, but it was also Arizona against a little more advanced hitters.  

Do you think we'll see him in Baltimore in 2023?

[Aristotelian]

Surprised he is this high but he has a great resume. He deserves it. 

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Wow...  I really thought, even with his injury, Baumler would slot in ahead of Denoyer.

Denoyer has certainly been under the radar this year.  I knew he was posting some solid numbers but wasn't sure what to make of them.  He AFL stats were ok too, but it was also Arizona against a little more advanced hitters.  

Do you think we'll see him in Baltimore in 2023?

He is already on the 40 man. If his performance is anything like his AA season we will see him

[emmett16]

I was a little surprised he is 24.  I guess the covid non-drafted FAs will be a little older than typical.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Wow...  I really thought, even with his injury, Baumler would slot in ahead of Denoyer.

Denoyer has certainly been under the radar this year.  I knew he was posting some solid numbers but wasn't sure what to make of them.  He AFL stats were ok too, but it was also Arizona against a little more advanced hitters.  

Do you think we'll see him in Baltimore in 2023?

I do think we'll see him at some point in 2023, for no other reason than he's on the 40-man roster and we know how Elias and company use their pitchers on the 40-man. 

Obviously we have to see how Denoyer is affected or not by the major league ball used in AAA, and how his curveball plays there, but I do think he could be a 6th inning guy right now. Could he be more? I think the Orioles will give him time to find out next year.
 

He's still a little inconsistent and if the curve is not working, he doesn't have a ton to defend himself without having good command. I do like the change movement, but he needs to command it better. 

He's got a Dean Kremer upside, but the delivery and the fact he starts to lose his command around 50-60 pitches suggests multi-inning reliever is his most-likely.

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I was a little surprised he is 24.  I guess the covid non-drafted FAs will be a little older than typical.

Actually, I always think for some reason that he's a COVID year FA, but he was signed after the 2019 draft. I fixed that portion of the profile. My apologies.

Still, the fact remains that he's not your average UDFA. He's a nice scouting and development story.

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, I always think for some reason that he's a COVID year FA, but he was signed after the 2019 draft. I fixed that portion of the profile. My apologies.

Still, the fact remains that he's not your average UDFA. He's a nice scouting and development story.

Wow.  That’s pretty impressive for the young man and the org.  % of guys like that to make an MLB appearance has to be minuscule.  I’ll be pulling for him extra hard.   

[Frobby]

I line Denoyer better than a few of the pitchers we saw this year, like Gillaspie.  I think he could find a niche on the team as a spot starter/reliever.   I’m guessing we will see him in the middle of the season sometime as an up and down guy this year.  

[Just Regular]

This would feel to me like Kurt Warner stuff if he made it.    I'll give grace to 2020 UDFA's as they could have been 6th-10th rounders in another world, but in a full draft that'd really be a find for the signing scout, OMAR's algorithm or whatever it was.

Here he is crushing the Eastern League at K-BB% on a near Grayson scale - 2nd out of 99 guys throwing 50 IP in the league last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=5&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

Balls in play - 30 hits in 51 innings pretty stingy, reminds me of Bryan Baker AAA before we got him.   8 of the 30 home runs - feels like a lot of taters for a hit suppressor, but I assume he is just another lab experiment of burnish your stuff and throw it to the middle of the zone.    Excellent AA hitters can handle it, AA filler guys get crushed.    

Another reason why in 15 pitch chunks Grayson Rodriguez might be some years qualifying for an ERA title.    I trust the pitch data from Arizona was a bit of a final exam for this decision, and he made it.

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This would feel to me like Kurt Warner stuff if he made it.    I'll give grace to 2020 UDFA's as they could have been 6th-10th rounders in another world, but in a full draft that'd really be a find for the signing scout, OMAR's algorithm or whatever it was.

Here he is crushing the Eastern League at K-BB% on a near Grayson scale - 2nd out of 99 guys throwing 50 IP in the league last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=5&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

Balls in play - 30 hits in 51 innings pretty stingy, reminds me of Bryan Baker AAA before we got him.   8 of the 30 home runs - feels like a lot of taters for a hit suppressor, but I assume he is just another lab experiment of burnish your stuff and throw it to the middle of the zone.    Excellent AA hitters can handle it, AA filler guys get crushed.    

Another reason why in 15 pitch chunks Grayson Rodriguez might be some years qualifying for an ERA title.    I trust the pitch data from Arizona was a bit of a final exam for this decision, and he made it.

Great post. 

[RZNJ]

I like Denoyer but there are prospects below him that I would definitely trade him for.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

This would feel to me like Kurt Warner stuff if he made it.    I'll give grace to 2020 UDFA's as they could have been 6th-10th rounders in another world, but in a full draft that'd really be a find for the signing scout, OMAR's algorithm or whatever it was.

Here he is crushing the Eastern League at K-BB% on a near Grayson scale - 2nd out of 99 guys throwing 50 IP in the league last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=5&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

Balls in play - 30 hits in 51 innings pretty stingy, reminds me of Bryan Baker AAA before we got him.   8 of the 30 home runs - feels like a lot of taters for a hit suppressor, but I assume he is just another lab experiment of burnish your stuff and throw it to the middle of the zone.    Excellent AA hitters can handle it, AA filler guys get crushed.    

Another reason why in 15 pitch chunks Grayson Rodriguez might be some years qualifying for an ERA title.    I trust the pitch data from Arizona was a bit of a final exam for this decision, and he made it.

That miss, which is mostly curveball and change related, is part of the reason why I think his stuff will play. The more I looked into his numbers, the more I liked him and then watching a few games when things worked for him, I saw three average major league pitches.

If he was 1-2 inning reliever, I think his velocity would tick up as well, but I'm not sure about how long he needs to recover to pitch again. His quickest turn around to pitch again was six days so if they ultimately think he's a reliever, he needs to be used more often in shorter stings next year.

Personally, I'd use him as a starter next year in Norfolk and see how he looks. I'd like to see him built up to throwing 80-100 pitches an evaluate from there. If it's not working, convert him to 1-2 inning stints and pitch him more often to see if he can provide value to the Orioles in a relief role.

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I like Denoyer but there are prospects below him that I would definitely trade him for.

Certainly understandable. As I stated in another thread, I moved guys in a round the #19 and #20 spots as I did more analysis. I ultimately decided to go with Young's upside at #19 and then Denoyer at #20 because I just like repertoire and the miss he creates in the zone. If I thought for sure he could stick as a starter, he'd be much higher, but that part I need to see next year at AAA.

There are still pretty solid guys through #25 on this list that I could have put here and been able to defend the decision. 

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

His quickest turn around to pitch again was six days so if they ultimately think he's a reliever, he needs to be used more often in shorter stings next year.

A "bulk" pitcher who never throws more than 80 pitches or more often than every 6th day, but it helps him run a 30% K-BB - what baseball is becoming.     Spencer Strider did throw 10 of his starts on 4 days rest, but then his ERA increased to 3.50...like Theo Epstein says, its just math.     Bring on Shohei and the 6-man rotation!    Then Twice Through the Order is enough for Tyler Wells or DL Hall to be "starters".

Jorge Mateo...good luck.

I think baseball wants its Mike Boddickers or Madison Bumgarners back, so believe during Grayson's career the MLBPA and MLB are going to do something about this.    The Rays make their Jason Adam's every year, they never pay them anything and its putting Jordan Lyles out of work.