The warning signs are there for the reading

[Going Underground]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

With Boras as his agent, I don’t hold out much hope of signing Gunnar long term. As to Adley, I’d be looking at the Buster Posey contract as the model.  That could justify a 9-10 year deal.  

Has Boras let any of his  younger clients sign long term deals with their present team without reaching free agency?

I looked at Franco,Rodriguez and Hayes and none are Boras clients. Ramirez is older but also not a Boras clent.

 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK with me.  Would you offer him the Franco deal?  

Yes. They can’t have it both ways. Be limited in FA signings and then not push to keep your own. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Has Boras let any of his  younger clients sign long term deals with their present team without reaching free agency?

I looked at Franco,Rodriguez and Hayes and none are Boras clients. Ramirez is older but also not a Boras clent.

 

Off the top of my head, Carlos Gonzalez signed a 7-year deal when he only had 2 years of service time.  Stephen Strasburg signed a 7-year deal a year before he wound have been a free agent.  Both were represented by Boras. I believe there have been at least a few others.   
 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Frobby

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Off the top of my head, Carlos Gonzalez signed a 7-year deal when he only had 2 years of service time.  Stephen Strasburg signed a 7-year deal a year before he wound have been a free agent.  Both were represented by Boras. I believe there have been at least a few others.   

Bregman. He was bought out of 2 FA years. 

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

 Westburg, Ortiz and Henderson should be your starting infield this year.

I'd say that's unlikely. (not that I wouldn't like that quite a bit)

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   Holliday is at least a couple of years away.  By the time Holliday is ready to go, then maybe Ortiz or Westburg hasn't panned out, or if they have both succeeded you trade one of them.  

I'd say it is more likely that either Urias or Mateo stick over that time frame. (and again, this isn't my wish... just what I think will happen). I suspect that Mateo's glove has more value to the organization than his trade value. But that Urias' GG has more trade value than his playing value. So if I had to guess I'd bet that Urias gets moved and Mateo sticks. And Mateo sticking makes a bottleneck for one of Norby, Ortiz and Westburg.

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Norby needs to find a defensive position.  Reports are that his defense at 2B is substandard.  Maybe he can improve there and then you have a surplus.  Maybe he needs to move to 1B or LF, in which case he's a candidate to displace Hays or Mountcastle if he continues to rake at AAA.   Or maybe he brings higher value as a trade candidate to a team with a stadium that is more favorable to right handed power hitters. 

 

Norby to 1st makes sense. But reports are that Norby himself thinks he will be traded. Of the three (Norby, Ortiz, and Westburg) I like Ortiz... but another year of development could change that equation radically.

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In any case, I think you'd need to trade either Henderson or two of the other four (or someone comparable like Cowser) plus one or more lower-level guys to get a good starting pitcher back.  I'm not thrilled about that idea.    

I think you have a different idea of what we're after and what it would cost than I do.

I'm thinking 3.5 to 4.2 ERA (a 12 to 14 win guy) with an indication that their HR numbers would benefit from Camden Cavern.

I think One of these guys alone would centerpiece that deal... with a kicker or two.

[Going Underground]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Bregman. He was bought out of 2 FA years. 

So the Orioles have a chance  (not Sisco) with Boras and their younger players. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

So the Orioles have a chance  (not Sisco) with Boras and their younger players. 

If the money talks they do. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Bregman. He was bought out of 2 FA years. 

Also Andrus, Bogaerts, Altuve, Carlos Gomez.  The Andrus one was interesting.  He’d already agreed to a 3-year deal running 2012-14 (his last pre-Arb year and two Arb years).   Then when only one year of that contact had been performed, he agreed to an 8-year extension covering Arb 3 and 7 FA years, that wouldn’t even go into effect for two more years.   So yes, Boras can be coaxed into pre-FA deals and even pre-Arb deals on occasion.  But it’s not frequent when you look at his large bevy of clients.  

Edited December 13, 2022 by Frobby

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yep, fantastic is the first word that comes to mind when I look at their proposed starting rotation of: 

John Means (eventually)

Kyle Gibson (5.05 ERA in 2022)

Dean Kremer (4.55 ERA in 2022)

Kyle Bradish (4.90 ERA in 2022)

Tyler Wells (4.25 ERA in 2022)

Auston Voth (4.34 ERA in 2022)

Mike Baumann (4.72 ERA in 2022)

 

You are using Kremer's career ERA of 4.55 rather than the 3.23 ERA he put up last year.  I agree with the overall point that they need to do more to upgrade the rotation though. 

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Also Andrus, Bogaerts, Altuve, Carlos Gomez.  The Andrus one was interesting.  He’d already agreed to a 3-year deal running 2012-14 (his last pre-Arb year and two Arb years).   Then when only one year of that contact had been performed, he agreed to an 8-year extension covering Arb 3 and 7 FA years, that wouldn’t even go into effect for two more years.   So yes, Boras can be coaxed into pre-FA deals and even pre-Arb deals on occasion.  But it’s not frequent when you look at his large bevy of clients.  

I suspect it is largely driven by the client.

I'm sure Boras advises... but ultimately he works for the player.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Me: It would be hard for this offseason to get much worse than it has been to this point.

Mike Elias: HOLD MY BEER

I am ready for the pendulum swing from They Aren't Spending Enough to They're Spending It Wrong in however many milliseconds it takes the Orioles Twitter feed (or whatever they use) to propagate.   Might be this winter, might be next winter.   

I don't think Adley Rutschman is going to leave BAL never having played for a $125-$150mm ballclub.    If he's here long term, Elias I believe will get to spend a billion plus on MLB payroll through the end of Jackson Holliday's years of Club control.

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

I suspect it is largely driven by the client.

I'm sure Boras advises... but ultimately he works for the player.

Sure, and he has said as much.  But I think a lot of athletes are happy to let the agent decide what the best overall strategy is for maximizing their income.  And a lot of those athletes choose Boras.  

[baltfan]

@Tony-OH Of the people signed by other teams, which do you wish the Orioles would have signed to the same contract?  Who is left out there that you think the Orioles should be willing to sign?

[owknows]

Just now, Frobby said:

Sure, and he has said as much.  But I think a lot of athletes are happy to let the agent decide what the best overall strategy is for maximizing their income.  And a lot of those athletes choose Boras.  

I think that's true enough... but of those players likely to forego the advice of their agent for a particular contract... you'd probably have the most luck as management by waving sweaty wads of cash under the nose of hungry young players.

A few years is an eternity to young 20somethings.

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, baltfan said:

@Tony-OH Of the people signed by other teams, which do you wish the Orioles would have signed to the same contract?  Who is left out there that you think the Orioles should be willing to sign?

Bassitt was a guy I preferred and I thought that was a contract the Orioles could have matched or beat (not knowing their budget of course). 

Rodon is the only TOR guy left but I'd be shocked if the Orioles somehow pulled that off. He's perfect fit for Camden Yards now. 

Other than that, it's going to have to be a trade if they want an impact guy in the rotation. Check out this thread for those option.