Are the Red Sox Better Than the Orioles (on Paper)?

[HakunaSakata]

37 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's pretty interesting to see how people respond to a player like Adam Frazier compared to guys like Duvall and Mondesi.

If DuVall gets the same number of ABs I wouldn't be surprised if he matches Santander's numbers. He's also historically been a very good fielder, although I don't think he's played much CF. 

A more creative GM would have traded Santander for pitching help and signed DuVall as a short term replacement. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you want to knock him for his health then maybe not, but in terms of per game production I think he's quite a bit better than Mateo. 

Mondesi has 4.3 RWAR in 1366 PA.    Mateo has 3.4 RWAR in 770 PA.    

 

[HakunaSakata]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Their rotation could be very good or complete garbage. It’s tough to say. 

I think you could apply the exact same sentiment to our starting rotation. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

He's a significantly better player than Frazier (when healthy). And the Red Sox only need him to stay healthy for 1/2 a season until Story comes back. So in that sense, yes he does move the needle (on paper). 

Have you looked at Mondesi’s career?  He’s never healthy.   He’s got 5.088 years of service (equivalent to about 796 games) and he’s played in 358 games in that time.  Frazier, for whatever other flaws he may have, actually is available to play.  He’s played more games in the last 3 seasons (one of which was the COVID-shortened season) than Mondesi has played in his entire career.  He has a career 99 OPS+ to Mondesi’s 82.    

As to Story, I doubt he misses only half the season.  
 

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Mondesi has 4.3 RWAR in 1366 PA.    Mateo has 3.4 RWAR in 770 PA.    

 

Here's the thing. Mateo has never had a WAR higher than 0.2 prior to last season. Mondesi has had multiple season over 2.0. Is Mondesi as brittle as mr. Glass? Yes, but he's still a starting MLB player when healthy. On a good team, Mateo would be a utility player. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Have you looked at Mondesi’s career?  He’s never healthy.   He’s got 5.088 years of service (equivalent to about 796 games) and he’s played in 358 games in that time.  Frazier, for whatever other flaws he may have, actually is available to play.  He’s played more games in the last 3 seasons (one of which was the COVID-shortened season) than Mondesi has played in his entire career.  He has a career 99 OPS+ to Mondesi’s 82.    

As to Story, I doubt he misses only half the season.  
 

I'm well aware of his injury history, but that doesn't factor into whether or not someone is or isn't a better player because we can't predict injuries. Right now Mondesi is healthy and right now he is a better player. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

Here's the thing. Mateo has never had a WAR higher than 0.2 prior to last season. Mondesi has had multiple season over 2.0. Is Mondesi as brittle as mr. Glass? Yes, but he's still a starting MLB player when healthy. On a good team, Mateo would be a utility player. 

Last year was the first year Mateo has played regularly.    He had 209 PA in 2021.  28 in 2020.    How is Mateo a utility player on a good team but Mondesi isn't?    Mondesi actually has worse plate discipline than Mateo!

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you want to knock him for his health then maybe not, but in terms of per game production I think he's quite a bit better than Mateo. 

I don’t think he has been, historically.  Interestingly, they’re the same age (Mondesi is a month younger) but Mondesi has played much longer than Mateo has.   Mondesi has a career OPS+ of 82 to Mateo’s 80.   He’s had some better years though, so I’d say his offensive ceiling may be higher than Mateo’s.  

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Last year was the first year Mateo has played regularly.    He had 209 PA in 2021.  28 in 2020.    How is Mateo a utility player on a good team but Mondesi isn't?    Mondesi actually has worse plate discipline than Mateo!

...but he typically hits for a higher average, hits more HRs, drives in more runs, and steals more bases when he is healthy. That's the only point I was making. On paper, on a per game basis, Mondesi is very likely to be a significantly better player than Mateo if he can stay healthy. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think he has been, historically.  Interestingly, they’re the same age (Mondesi is a month younger) but Mondesi has played much longer than Mateo has.   Mondesi has a career OPS+ of 82 to Mateo’s 80.   He’s had some better years though, so I’d say his offensive ceiling may be higher than Mateo’s.  

It's not "may be" higher, it is and absolutely has been when he's healthy. Mateo is 27 years old and only has one serviceable MLB season under his belt and  we're counting a year in which he hit .221 as serviceable. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...but he typically hits for a higher average, hits more HRs, drives in more runs, and steals more bases when he is healthy. That's the only point I was making. On paper, on a per game basis, Mondesi is very likely to be a significantly better player than Mateo if he can stay healthy. 

Are we excluding defense?

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If DuVall gets the same number of ABs I wouldn't be surprised if he matches Santander's numbers. He's also historically been a very good fielder, although I don't think he's played much CF. 

A more creative GM would have traded Santander for pitching help and signed DuVall as a short term replacement. 

I think you need to take a deeper look into all of these players. Your evaluations and projections aren't backed up by anything really. You take shots at Santander's age and durability but think a 35 year old coming off a dreadful year and a player that has had numerous serious injuries and has played 50 games in 2 years (!!) are needle movers. Btw, even when Mondesi has been healthy (basically never) he's never been more than 2.5 WAR player. Mateo was better than that last year and hasn't had knee injuries in the recent past that are sure to weigh down much of what Mondesi is good at. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Last year was the first year Mateo has played regularly.    He had 209 PA in 2021.  28 in 2020.    How is Mateo a utility player on a good team but Mondesi isn't?    Mondesi actually has worse plate discipline than Mateo!

...because he wasn't good enough to play regularly. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

...because he wasn't good enough to play regularly. 

That's fine.   Last year he was and he put up 3.4 RWAR without being very good offensively.    Mondesi's career OPS is .685 compared to Mateo's .645.    I suppose that's a significant edge offensively.   Defensively, I think most would give the edge to Mateo.

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, LTO's said:

I think you need to take a deeper look into all of these players. Your evaluations and projections aren't backed up by anything really. You take shots at Santander's age and durability but think a 35 year old coming off a dreadful year and a player that has had numerous serious injuries and has played 50 games in 2 years (!!) are needle movers. Btw, even when Mondesi has been healthy (basically never) he's never been more than 2.5 WAR player. Mateo was better than that last year and hasn't had knee injuries in the recent past that are sure to weigh down much of what Mondesi is good at. 

Adam Duvall hit 22 HRs in 2021 in 314 ABs while playing his home games in a pitchers park. He's also historically been a very good launch angle guy (23.4 last season), which should play well in Fenway with the short porch in left field. Is it really that outrageous to suggest that he's going to hit 30+ HRs if he gets 500 ABs.