Are the Red Sox Better Than the Orioles (on Paper)?

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

Adam Duvall hit 22 HRs in 2021 in 314 ABs while playing his home games in a pitchers park. He's also historically been a very good launch angle guy (23.4 last season), which should play well in Fenway with the short porch in left field. Is it really that outrageous to suggest that he's going to hit 30+ HRs if he gets 500 ABs. 

Unless they change the baseballs, I'd say yes. BTW, you can look at park factors on baseball savant. Playing in Fenway would have had no effect on his home run totals in 2021 AND 2022. 

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are we excluding defense?

I mean a great fielding player with little or no bat seems like the very definition of a utility player to me. If we stick with shortstops and make the comp to someone like Adrelton Simmons (great fielder in his hey day), even he contributed something offensively. Mateo is not an everyday player on a good baseball team. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I mean a great fielding player with little or no bat seems like the very definition of a utility player to me. If we stick with shortstops and make the comp to someone like Adrelton Simmons (great fielder in his hey day), even he contributed something offensively. Mateo is not an everyday player on a good baseball team. 

You talked about everyday production.   That includes offense and defense.   So, even if Mateo out produces Mondesi overall on a per game basis, Mateo is a utility guy and Mondesi is a starter?

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Unless they change the baseballs, I'd say yes. BTW, you can look at park factors on baseball savant. Playing in Fenway would have had no effect on his home run totals in 2021 AND 2022. 

They don't need to be. He hit 38 HRs in 2021 in just over 500 ABs. I shortchanged him in my original comment, because I left out his HR's with the Braves (before he was traded). He's an absolute lock for 30 HRs if he get the ABs. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You talked about everyday production.   That includes offense and defense.   So, even if Mateo out produces Mondesi overall on a per game basis, Mateo is a utility guy and Mondesi is a starter?

We're beating a dead horse now because we're back to WAR. Agree to disagree. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

We're beating a dead horse now because we're back to WAR. Agree to disagree. 

Even if you break the WAR down to a per game basis, Mateo wins.    If Mateo repeats last season offensively and defensively, and Mondesi miraculously, plays 150 games at SS for the Red Sox, Mateo is likely the better overall player.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

They don't need to be. He hit 38 HRs in 2021 in just over 500 ABs. I shortchanged him in my original comment, because I left out his HR's with the Braves (before he was traded). He's an absolute lock for 30 HRs if he get the ABs. 

The offensive environment was much different in 2021. Like I said, if they change the balls again it's certainly possible. Also, just weird to consider it lock based on 2021 when he was terrible last year and hadn't hit 30 HRs since 2017 prior to that. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Even if you break the WAR down to a per game basis, Mateo wins.    If Mateo repeats last season offensively and defensively, and Mondesi miraculously, plays 150 games at SS for the Red Sox, Mateo is likely the better overall player.

If Mateo repeats last season is just as big of an if as Mondesi staying healthy. It still amazes me how we elevate these Oriole one hit wonders that come out of no where late in their careers to elite status after one mediocre to good season. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

If Mateo repeats last season is just as big of an if as Mondesi staying healthy. It still amazes me how we elevate these Oriole one hit wonders that come out of no where late in their careers to elite status after one mediocre to good season. 

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.   Mateo was 26 last year.   His first full year in the majors.    Late in his career?   Sure.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The offensive environment was much different in 2021. Like I said, if they change the balls again it's certainly possible. Also, just weird to consider it lock based on 2021 when he was terrible last year and hadn't hit 30 HRs since 2017 prior to that. 

2018 - 53 ABs, 2019 - 120 ABs, 2020 - 190 ABs...there's your answer. He was on pace to hit 30+ HRs in two of those seasons. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not "may be" higher, it is and absolutely has been when he's healthy. Mateo is 27 years old and only has one serviceable MLB season under his belt and  we're counting a year in which he hit .221 as serviceable. 

I don’t think we really know what Mateo’s offensive ceiling is.   He was so inconsistent last year that for me his possible range of performance goes between significantly improved to significantly worse.   Mondesi could fluctuate a lot too.  

ZiPS projects Mondesi at 79 OPS plus, but his 80th percentile projection is 103 and his 20th percentile is 57.   Mateo is projected at 83 with an 80th percentile at 103 and 20th at 67.   So, based on that, I’d say I’m being generous by saying Mondesi “may” have more offensive upside than Mateo.  

While I’m at it, Frazier is projected for a 91 OPS+ with an 80th percentile at 108 and 20th at 76.   


 

[Number5]

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

If you want to knock him for his health then maybe not, but in terms of per game production I think he's quite a bit better than Mateo. 

You've moved the goalposts multiple times now.    Seems like you were comparing what they've done so far in their careers.   Now, you are throwing in what you think they'll do in the future.

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

...because he wasn't good enough to play regularly. 

Mateo was blocked by some guy Tatis in SD.  And when he couldn't play, Manny was a pretty solid plan B. 

Yeah, on paper/in fantasy, Mondesi is an eye-catcher.  And I do think Mondesi is better offensively, but it's not enough to overcome the defensive strength of Mateo either.  Neither can take a walk to their own and their team's detriment...

To throw Frazier into the discussion, fWAR shows him with 2 seasons higher than Mondesi.  And Mateo's one starting season was higher than anything Mondesi has put up too.  2020 would have likely been 3+ fWAR season for Mondesi (if he stayed healthy).

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

2018 - 53 ABs, 2019 - 120 ABs, 2020 - 190 ABs...there's your answer. He was on pace to hit 30+ HRs in two of those seasons. 

So the fact that he's 35 years old and has played in over 100 games once in 5 years doesn't factor into this at all? He has a lower career BB% and higher K% than Ryan Mountcastle.