“He is what he is?”: A study of players who had 10+ rWAR careers

[Sports Guy]

What conclusion are you trying to come to by doing this research?

I mean, so you need to fo the research to know that guys don’t normally go from something to nothing later in their careers?  Or that players tend to be better before they hit 30?

Just trying to figure out what you are trying to find out?

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What conclusion are you trying to come to by doing this research?

I mean, so you need to fo the research to know that guys don’t normally go from something to nothing later in their careers?  Or that players tend to be better before they hit 30?

Just trying to figure out what you are trying to find out?

That Austin Hays is going to put it all together this year  @Frobby I kid I Kid.

 

Great research - seems this supports the generalization that players peak ages 27-31.  I think, depending on a players skillset, you can somewhat guess as to when a specific player is likely to peak or decline within that 27-31 y/o time frame.  

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What conclusion are you trying to come to by doing this research?

I mean, so you need to fo the research to know that guys don’t normally go from something to nothing later in their careers?  Or that players tend to be better before they hit 30?

Just trying to figure out what you are trying to find out?

Sometimes, I like to do research without having some predetermined conclusion I’m trying to reach.  I know that’s a radical idea!

But as I said to wildcard, I’m trying to get a feel for the range of normal outcomes (we already know what the averages say) and what the exceptions tend to look like.  I already have a few thoughts based on these 26 players but I want to wait until I’ve done the whole five years to say anything more.  

I said this in the OP, but it bears repeating that the 10+ WAR players are only a fraction of major league players.  Obviously there are many players who have a couple of good seasons but fizzle out before reaching 10 WAR, and others who just never really gain any major league traction at all. 

In this century, the only position players drafted by the Orioles who have reached 10 WAR are Machado, Markakis, and Wieters.   Yastrzemski (9.7), Mancini (9.3), Mullins (9.2) and Walker (8.8) are on the cusp and could get there this season.   Hell, nobody would be shocked if Adley got there this season.  But it’s kind of amazing how few Oriole players have gotten there.