What are your expectations for Grayson Rodriguez in 2024?

[emmett16]

4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

 

 

1. Throw his SL and CH more. His SL is a weapon against RH batters and his CH is effective against LH batters.

2. Throw the 4SFB a bit less but throw it up in the zone with a focus of hitting the top of the zone consistently.

3. Shelve the cutter or only throw it rarely. 

This is just my $0.02. Take it for what it's worth...

Great post! That is exactly what he did when he came back from AAA.  He got cutter happy in the first half and it was crushed.  He was often behind and when he threw the FB, and it got hit hard (although he still got 24% WHIFF so it wasn't like it was useless).  His CH & SL are incredible pitches, and he throws them at almost the same speed, from the same release point, and they dart in two different directions.  His curve is pretty darn good as well, but he doesn't use it much.  I think he has trouble commanding the 55.8"  of vertical drop and misses low more often than not.  He has problems controlling the curve, but it's an awesome change of pace/show me pitch to keep batters honest.  I think that's likely a pitch that he could use more as a weapon.  The speed differential from the FB(97) and CU/SL(83) is pretty wide and can help it play if he's tunneling his pitches which he did very well in the second half.   The cutter might help him a bit because it sits right in between the fastball and CU/SL @ 89mph ~7mph slower than the FB and ~7mph faster than the CU/SL.  He just needs to be judicious when using it.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Cole was under Ray Searage’s “pitch to contact” tutelage in Pittsburg.  Cole improved so much when he went to Houston and NYY.

As for Grayson’s 2024 expectations:  185+ IP, 15+ W, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 250+ Ks

Not all SSS are created equal.

From you lips to God's ears.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I don't think he was trolling.  He was trying to make a valid point.  And I have to admit, I quite enjoyed the trip down memory road and looking at how an old Oriole's career turned out.  

I'll often give a pithy off the cuff comment as a counterpoint to what I view as weak arguments.

The idea that Grayson's strong second half ensures continued success is something I don't agree with.

I'm a Grayson fan but it isn't that simple in the real world.

Some folks don't care for that style of posting.

[emmett16]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll often give a pithy off the cuff comment as a counterpoint to what I view as weak arguments.

The idea that Grayson's strong second half ensures continued success is something I don't agree with.

I'm a Grayson fan but it isn't that simple in the real world.

Some folks don't care for that style of posting.

Pith away, my friend.  I dig it.  I agree with the sentiment, but I think he has the mental fortitude and the physical tools to continue on that trajectory.  I don't think luck played into it.  However, there are a lot of variables which is why I said his success is going to depend on his health.  Ther are so many things that could derail his success even with the talent, tools, and make-up.  

[Jim'sKid26]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll often give a pithy off the cuff comment as a counterpoint to what I view as weak arguments.

The idea that Grayson's strong second half ensures continued success is something I don't agree with.

I'm a Grayson fan but it isn't that simple in the real world.

Some folks don't care for that style of posting.

It appears to me that you enjoy the role of the contrarian. It gives you joy to pick apart another poster's ideas. I find it ironic that you would describe your responses as pithy while others find them to be troll-like. It makes me chuckle.

I take no offense from your approach and appreciate your willingness to engage in the conversation. Rock on.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It appears to me that you enjoy the role of the contrarian. It gives you joy to pick apart another poster's ideas. I find it ironic that you would describe your responses as pithy while others find them to be troll-like. It makes me chuckle.

I take no offense from your approach and appreciate your willingness to engage in the conversation. Rock on.

I was using the brief-terse definition for pithy. 

I thought adding in "off the cuff" would imply that I don't consider those comments to be "full of vigor, substance or meaning".

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was using the brief-terse definition for pithy. 

I thought adding in "off the cuff" would imply that I don't consider those comments to be "full of vigor, substance or meaning".

Never sure if your last name is Webster or Roget.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Never sure if your last name is Webster or Roget.

When I was in Basic they called me Dictionary, or Dic for short.

 

*The preceding was a true story*

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When I was in Basic they called me Dictionary, or Dic for short.

 

*The preceding was a true story*

Is that what they told you?

[Can_of_corn]

14 hours ago, Pickles said:

Is that what they told you?

Everyone was very aware at the time.

[Jim'sKid26]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When I was in Basic they called me Dictionary, or Dic for short.

 

*The preceding was a true story*

So is that what you would prefer to be called?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So is that what you would prefer to be called?

If it was what I preferred to be called wouldn't it be my name on this board?

I just checked, it's available. 

[Tony-OH]

On 12/16/2023 at 10:49 PM, Jagwar said:

I thought in his best seasons Matusz was throwing 96-98?

Matusz may have touched 94 MPH at times, but was consistently 88-92 MPH for most of his career.

[emmett16]

@Tony-OH how do you think Grayson does next year?  Do you think the second half was more of a good stretch with some luck?  Or do you think it’s a preview of what’s to come next year?  Do you think he took most of his growing pain lumps last year -or- that there are still some lumps/hurdles to overcome before truly breaking out? 

[nvpacchi]

Biggest things for Grayson we're his significant improvement in walk rate and barrel rate from 1H to 2H.

Walk rate from 10% to 6.9%

Barrel rate from 12% down to 4%

He ditched a mediocre cutter in favor of his better 4S (prolly helped his barrel rate the most), and threw far many more pitches in-zone in 2H.

For example: Four-seam zone rate 1H: 54% 2H: 59.5%

slider zone rate 1H: 36% 2H: 48%

zone rate isn't everything, but when your stuff is as good as his, it behooves you to be in or around the zone and minimize the easy takes for hitters.

I'd be optimistic enough that he has a better handle on his pitch mix and a stronger action plan to attack hitters now.

 

edit: I just checked his swinging strike rates and he substantially increased his rate on the slide from 1H to 2H 12.% to 18.6%.  More strikes, more swings and misses - pretty straightforward correlation I'd reckon when your slider stuff is so good.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by nvpacchi