Fangraphs 2024 positional power rankings

[Just Regular]

The Orioles open 28th in the 2024 bullpen forecast.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/

Last year, they were 2nd across 575 fantastic innings.    The Dodgers needed 75 more innings for a small edge as they didn't get heavy innings from anyone like Kyle Gibson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&stats=rel

I guess Felix Bautista achieved Barry Bonds-type things, affecting team standing in league about as much as any individual can.     His player development story is right there with Gunnar, Mayo and Basallo.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

The Orioles open 28th in the 2024 bullpen forecast.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/

Last year, they were 2nd across 575 fantastic innings.    The Dodgers needed 75 more innings for a small edge as they didn't get heavy innings from anyone like Kyle Gibson.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&stats=rel

I guess Felix Bautista achieved Barry Bonds-type things, affecting team standing in league about as much as any individual can.     His player development story is right there with Gunnar, Mayo and Basallo.

The Fangraphs bullpen rankings strike me as nonsensical.   For one thing, they have the whole range of teams averaging under 3 WAR, when the major league average last year was just a tick under 4.   So, they’re underrating all relievers as a group IMO.  Second, I don’t see how the Orioles’ pen that was worth 7.5 fWAR last year is going to be worth 1.4 this year.   Last year they had Bautista 2.7, Cano 1.7, Coulombe 1.4 and five guys at 0.4.  This year they’ve got Kimbrel and Cano at 0.4 each and everyone else lower.  I think it’s fair to expect some regression from Cano and Coulombe, but that’s ridiculous.   If you’re looking for the reasons Fangraphs underrates the Orioles, you can start right here.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The Fangraphs bullpen rankings strike me as nonsensical.   For one thing, they have the whole range of teams averaging under 3 WAR, when the major league average last year was just a tick under 4.   So, they’re underrating all relievers as a group IMO.  Second, I don’t see how the Orioles’ pen that was worth 7.5 fWAR last year is going to be worth 1.4 this year.   Last year they had Bautista 2.7, Cano 1.7, Coulombe 1.4 and five guys at 0.4.  This year they’ve got Kimbrel and Cano at 0.4 each and everyone else lower.  I think it’s fair to expect some regression from Cano and Coulombe, but that’s ridiculous.   If you’re looking for the reasons Fangraphs underrates the Orioles, you can start right here.  

Email them about save percentage!  

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Fangraphs bullpen rankings strike me as nonsensical.   For one thing, they have the whole range of teams averaging under 3 WAR, when the major league average last year was just a tick under 4.   So, they’re underrating all relievers as a group IMO.  Second, I don’t see how the Orioles’ pen that was worth 7.5 fWAR last year is going to be worth 1.4 this year.   Last year they had Bautista 2.7, Cano 1.7, Coulombe 1.4 and five guys at 0.4.  This year they’ve got Kimbrel and Cano at 0.4 each and everyone else lower.  I think it’s fair to expect some regression from Cano and Coulombe, but that’s ridiculous.   If you’re looking for the reasons Fangraphs underrates the Orioles, you can start right here.  

That under 3 range is just for the 16-30 ranked pens. They have the top 13 pens at 3+ WAR. Only three at 4+ WAR... if that's an underestimate of high performers I'm guessing it's the same median-outcome reason why the projected standings also cluster around the middle more than the real standings. 

I agree with you about the O's pen though. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Email them about save percentage!  

Well, they would laugh in my face about that.  But it does have real world consequences when a bullpen blows a lot of saves.   The O’s offense did an amazing job last year of regaining leads that the bullpen lost.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That under 3 range is just for the 16-30 ranked pens. They have the top 13 pens at 3+ WAR. Only three at 4+ WAR... if that's an underestimate of high performers I'm guessing it's the same median-outcome reason why the projected standings also cluster around the middle more than the real standings. 

I agree with you about the O's pen though. 

I’m talking about the average, not the range.   Sorry if my wording was unclear.  They have the top team at 4.8, which would have ranked 11th last year.  League-wide only 9 teams were below 3 WAR last year, but they have 17 teams below 3.   

[Spy Fox]

16th ranked rotation with 12.1 WAR projected.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/

[Frobby]

“Another FanGraphs article, another low Orioles ranking. But this one is a lot better than it would have been without Burnes, which is why we liked Baltimore’s decision to trade for him so much. Burnes is a staff anchor; you can expect a big chunk of high-quality innings from him, something the Orioles didn’t have the luxury of counting on last year. It’s one thing to have some arms work out, and quite another to come into the season expecting it; the latter is much more comforting from a roster-building standpoint.

“It’s a good thing, too, because the team’s best pitcher from last year is already on the shelf. Bradish was magnificent in 2023, with pinpoint command and a nasty slider headlining his rise. This winter, he experienced elbow soreness and after receiving a PRP injection, he’s trying to use rest and recovery to avoid Tommy John surgery. We’re penciling him in for a 50% workload, but there’s certainly some volatility there.

“Rodriguez could help pick up that slack. After a bumpy start to his debut season, the former top prospect buckled down and started fastballing his way to success. He might not be a 200-inning workhorse – he made 31 starts across all levels last year and only got to 163.1 innings – but you should expect the ones he does throw to be high quality.

“That leaves a bevy of speculative options to fill out the rotation. Kremer and Means have a lot going for them; they’re prototypical mid-rotation starters, perfect for keeping the team in games until their high-powered offense can deliver a knockout blow. (Means is still working his way back from an elbow injury that kept him out of last year’s ALDS, but he’s expected to debut early in the first half of the season.) Irvin, Wells, and Zimmermann all profile as lesser versions of that player, and I like the odds of the Orioles turning at least one of those guys into a nice fourth starter. I’d even be willing to bet on two of them working out; Baltimore has done a good job with pitching development recently. With Burnes in the fold, I like how this staff looks a lot, and I think it’ll be a fearsome playoff operation if Bradish can return at full strength.”

[Frobby]

So, 27.8 fWAR for the offense, 12.1 for the starters, 1.4 for the bullpen totals 41.3 fWAR.   Layer that on top of a 47-win assumed replacement level base, and it comes to 88 wins.