Fangraphs 2024 positional power rankings

[Just Regular]

I think FG's depth charts compilers are behind what I think is the reality the Orioles will ask their infielders to settle into the craft of their long-term positions this season.

So here I am translating their numbers to give Gunnar the same number of PA they are giving the 4 guys they list ahead of him today.

(4) Trea Turner - 4.5 fWAR in 679 PA     Gunnar - 3.2 fWAR in 392 PA.      679/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(3) Bobby Witt - 4.6 fWAR in 672 PA     672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(2) F. Lindor - 4.7 fWAR in 672 PA      672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(1) C. Seager - 4.3 fWAR in 504 PA     504/392 * 3.2 = 4.1

Seager with his WS trophy deserves his Per Plate Appearance edge.

 

[Frobby]

The O’s come in 9th at 3B at 3.8 fWAR, on a presumed split of 35% Westburg, 32% Gunnar, 16% Urias, 15% Mayo, 1% Mateo and 1% Maton.  

“For a team in the top 10, there’s sure a lot of uncertainty about who will actually get the playing time for the Orioles at third base. Right now, it looks like the configuration will be Jackson Holliday at second, Gunnar Henderson at shortstop, and Jordan Westburg at third, but any member of that trio could show up at any of these positions at any given point.

“I feel for Westburg — he likely would have gotten a lot more notice if he played for a team with a worse farm system. Normally, a young former first-round draft pick who plays shortstop and hit .278/.371/.506 in the minors (and even better at Triple-A!) would have the local hype machine cranking on all gears. But Westburg has had the misfortune of being in the shadow of two even better prospects in Henderson and Holliday, and Large Adult Infielder Coby Mayo is coming up quickly behind him. But we’ve got him projected as a solidly above-average third baseman overall, with at least a few more chances to blossom into something better than that. 

“Whether Mayo is an eventual threat to Westburg’s playing time will depend on just how good his glove is. He hasn’t gotten rave reviews with the leather, but ZiPS, which uses a probability-based defensive metric based on coordinate data for minor leaguers, thinks he’s much better than his reputation. For what it’s worth, this same methodology was going nuts for Ke’Bryan Hayes practically the second he became a professional.

“Ramon Urías, who came crashing down to terra firma after a hot April, is also in the mix. But even as the likely backup, there’s probably not a big ceiling on his playing time, as the O’s would more likely turn to Mayo to shuffle someone in from elsewhere if Westburg missed serious time.“

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-third-base/

 

Edited March 20 by Frobby

[ThisIsBirdland]

You have to appreciate the formal term Large Adult Infielder.

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I think FG's depth charts compilers are behind what I think is the reality the Orioles will ask their infielders to settle into the craft of their long-term positions this season.

So here I am translating their numbers to give Gunnar the same number of PA they are giving the 4 guys they list ahead of him today.

(4) Trea Turner - 4.5 fWAR in 679 PA     Gunnar - 3.2 fWAR in 392 PA.      679/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(3) Bobby Witt - 4.6 fWAR in 672 PA     672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(2) F. Lindor - 4.7 fWAR in 672 PA      672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(1) C. Seager - 4.3 fWAR in 504 PA     504/392 * 3.2 = 4.1

Seager with his WS trophy deserves his Per Plate Appearance edge.

 

I get what trying to do in terms of extrapolating pure SS WAR for Gunnar. Just wanted to add as FYI that fangraphs projects composite fWAR of 4.9 (so 3.2 SS and 1.7 3B) for Gunnar over 616 PAs. 

Edited March 20 by Say O!

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Say O! said:

I get what trying to do in terms of extrapolating pure SS WAR for Gunnar. Just wanted to add as FYI that fangraphs projects composite fWAR of 4.9 (so 3.2 SS and 1.7 3B) for Gunnar over 616 PAs. 

Yes, but the lower fWAR/PA at 3B is due to the fact that 3B has less defensive value.

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Say O! said:

I get what trying to do in terms of extrapolating pure SS WAR for Gunnar. Just wanted to add as FYI that fangraphs projects composite fWAR of 4.9 (so 3.2 SS and 1.7 3B) for Gunnar over 616 PAs. 

I guess Decision Science of Rest and all I can't blame them for capping him at 616 PA's vs. the extra 10% they are giving to Trea/Lindor/Witt.    We'll see if Sigbot sits a possible MVP candidate 10% of the games - that isn't a life experience most plausible MVP candidates have.

I think Dave Dombrowski would give Gunnar a clean look at 700 PA, and the Orioles used Adley 680+ last year.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I think FG's depth charts compilers are behind what I think is the reality the Orioles will ask their infielders to settle into the craft of their long-term positions this season.

So here I am translating their numbers to give Gunnar the same number of PA they are giving the 4 guys they list ahead of him today.

(4) Trea Turner - 4.5 fWAR in 679 PA     Gunnar - 3.2 fWAR in 392 PA.      679/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(3) Bobby Witt - 4.6 fWAR in 672 PA     672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(2) F. Lindor - 4.7 fWAR in 672 PA      672/392 * 3.2 = 5.5

(1) C. Seager - 4.3 fWAR in 504 PA     504/392 * 3.2 = 4.1

Seager with his WS trophy deserves his Per Plate Appearance edge.

 

I started responding with something similar, then work...  FG has no clue what to do with Holliday/Gunnar.  

I think Gunnar will get some on the order of 85-90% of SS PAs.  Which bumps up the SS WAR and lowers 3B a smidge (technical term).  The Westburg/Urias/Mayo job share is the real question.  Jackson is all but a locked for the cast majority of 2B.  But the Mayo question will be a big 2024 plot to follow.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I guess Decision Science of Rest and all I can't blame them for capping him at 616 PA's vs. the extra 10% they are giving to Trea/Lindor/Witt.    We'll see if Sigbot sits a possible MVP candidate 10% of the games - that isn't a life experience most plausible MVP candidates have.

I think Dave Dombrowski would give Gunnar a clean look at 700 PA, and the Orioles used Adley 680+ last year.

I think it’s an injury hedge.  

[Frobby]

The O’s rank 15th in LF at 2.4 fWAR, with Austin Hays projected as getting 82% of the playing time, Cowser 10%, Stowers 4%, Kjerstad 3%, McKenna 1%.

“Austin Hays heard his name come up in a bit of trade speculation over the winter. He has been less productive than Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander over the past two years, and with more talented young outfielders coming up the pipe for the Orioles, Hays looked like the odd man out. However, it seems as if the O’s will kick off 2024 with the same three primary outfielders they’ve used for the past several seasons.

“That’s certainly not a bad thing. While Hays doesn’t have Santander’s bat or Mullins’ glove, he’s good enough at just about everything to be an average regular in a corner outfield spot. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he regularly outperforms his expected stats. To that end, he has never had an xwOBA above the 34th percentile, but his batting average, slugging percentage and wRC+ have been above average in all three qualified seasons of his career. His strong arm offsets his unimpressive range, and the 28-year-old outfielder has been worth about two wins in each of the past three years.

“Among those talented youngsters I spoke of, Colton Cowser has been hot this spring, and he could be the fourth outfielder on the Opening Day roster. Top 100 prospect Heston Kjerstad is more likely to start the year at Triple-A, where he’ll get regular playing time until he forces his way onto the big league roster.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-left-field/

 

[Frobby]

Fangraphs rates the O’s 9th in CF at 3.2 fWAR, with Mullins getting 86% of the playing time, Cowser 7%, Mateo 4%, McKenna 2% and Hays 1%.  

“How’s this for a tale of two seasons? In 2023, Cedric Mullins was running a 125 wRC+ with 14 stolen bases and 11 home runs before a strained groin derailed his season in July. After his return in August, his wRC+ dropped to 55, his exit velocity dropped by 1.5 mph, and his strikeout rate jumped by more than six percentage points. He put up 2.0 WAR before the injury and -0.2 after it. The funny thing is that after all that, Mullins’ .320 projected 2024 wOBA is almost exactly the same as the .321 we projected for him in 2023. A healthy Mullins seems like a pretty good bet to bounce back, but it’s fair to wonder how healthy he is, after dealing with a minor hamstring issue earlier in spring training. 

“Should he miss time, there are some interesting players behind him. Colton Cowser struggled in 26 games with Baltimore in 2023, whiffing more than you’d like. He may not have the glove for center either. However, he’s done nothing but hit in the minors, and he’s currently terrorizing the Grapefruit League. Jorge Mateo, an excellent defensive shortstop by trade, was off to his own fantastic start in 2023 when he suffered a hip injury that may or may not have been the reason for the utter collapse in his performance.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-center-field/

 

[dzorange]

Big year for Mullins. Excited to see if he can stay healthy. If he can, I too am expecting a bit of a bounce back year.

[interloper]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs rates the O’s 9th in CF at 3.2 fWAR, with Mullins getting 86% of the playing time, Cowser 7%, Mateo 4%, McKenna 2% and Hays 1%.  

“How’s this for a tale of two seasons? In 2023, Cedric Mullins was running a 125 wRC+ with 14 stolen bases and 11 home runs before a strained groin derailed his season in July. After his return in August, his wRC+ dropped to 55, his exit velocity dropped by 1.5 mph, and his strikeout rate jumped by more than six percentage points. He put up 2.0 WAR before the injury and -0.2 after it. The funny thing is that after all that, Mullins’ .320 projected 2024 wOBA is almost exactly the same as the .321 we projected for him in 2023. A healthy Mullins seems like a pretty good bet to bounce back, but it’s fair to wonder how healthy he is, after dealing with a minor hamstring issue earlier in spring training. 

“Should he miss time, there are some interesting players behind him. Colton Cowser struggled in 26 games with Baltimore in 2023, whiffing more than you’d like. He may not have the glove for center either. However, he’s done nothing but hit in the minors, and he’s currently terrorizing the Grapefruit League. Jorge Mateo, an excellent defensive shortstop by trade, was off to his own fantastic start in 2023 when he suffered a hip injury that may or may not have been the reason for the utter collapse in his performance.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-center-field/

 

Why don't I recall the Mateo hip injury?

[Frobby]

The O’s were ranked 12th for RF at 2.5 fWAR, assuming 80% Santander, 11% Cowser, 7% Kjerstad, 1% McKenna, 1% O’Hearn.  I don’t think Santander will play 80% of the games in RF, but whatever.  

“For the second year in a row, Santander claimed a share of the Orioles home run lead, hitting 28 to go with a .257/.325/.472 (119 wRC+) line. He was wildly inconsistent from month to month in terms of wRC+, with marks of 90 or lower in April, June, and September offset by a 191 in May, a 118 in July, and a 152 in August. His platoon splits were basically even after similarly veering all over the map in recent years, another reminder not to take small samples too seriously. It’s worth noting that despite Statcast metrics quite similar to 2022, he produced a career-low .426 xSLG, which he exceeded by 46 points. 

“In Cowser and Kjerstad, the Orioles do have a couple of prospects with no clear path to regular playing time. Cowser, a 24-year-old lefty, hit .300/.417/.520 (136 wRC+) with 17 homers at Triple-A but struck out 26.8% of the time, and he was eaten alive in a 77-PA sample in the majors (.115/.286/.148, 40 wRC+). His lack of standout tools, concerns about his ability to handle center field, and problems with lefties cast him as a potential corner platoon option. Kjerstad, the second pick of the 2020 draft, is a 25-year-old lefty who placed 24th on our Top 100 list after hitting .303/.376/.528 (133 wRC+) at Double- and Triple-A; he’s got quick wrists, fantastic plate coverage and 70-grade raw power, though he’s bit chase-prone.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field/

 

[Frobby]

At DH, the O’s ranked 9th at 1.6 fWAR, with 7 players splitting time there, led by Ryan Mountcastle with 40% of the playing time there.   They have Santander at only 11%.  No way I’m buying that.  

“How many of the players listed here would most teams be more than happy to employ as their everyday DH? Personally, I’d set the over/under at four — then proceed to take the over. Ryan O’Hearn, who blossomed after departing Kansas City, is an established big leaguer coming off a season where he slashed .289/.322/.480 with 14 home runs and a 118 wRC+ in 368 PAs. The switch-hitting Santander — projected to hit 29 home runs with a 117 wRC+ — is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. Kjerstad, who like Cowser got a cup of coffee last season, is a former first-rounder who has excelled with the bat since returning from a health scare. Currently lacking a clear pathway to playing time, he’ll start the year in the minors after a down spring.

“As for the hitters we project to get most of Baltimore’s DH reps, Mountcastle has averaged 24 home runs over his three major league seasons and is projected to hit 25 in the coming campaign. He’s also been getting incrementally better in other areas. Last year’s age-26 season saw him decrease his strikeout rate and increase his batting average, walk rate, and on-base percentage. Rutschman — likewise a former first rounder — might be the best catcher in baseball.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-designated-hitter/

 

[Frobby]

Summary of the offense:

C 5.1 fWAR 1st

1B 1.8 fWAR 15th

2B 2.9 fWAR 14th

3B 3.8 fWAR 9th

SS 4.5 fWAR 5th

LF 2.4 fWAR 15th

CF 3.2 fWAR 9th

RF 2.5 fWAR 12th

DH 1.6 fWAR 9th

TOTAL 27.8 fWAR

Note the O’s are no worse than average at any position.

 

Edited March 23 by Frobby