Phillies 2009 Pre-Season Review

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The 2008 World Series winners will try to be the first team to repeat as champs since the Yankees 98-99-00 trifecta. They’ll do it with pretty much the same cast of characters, with the two most notable differences being the replacement of Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez and the addition of Chan Ho Park.

Injuries were a concern earlier in the off-season but appear less so now; Utley (hip surgery) will be ready for opening day, and while Hamels probably won’t start on opening day because of a sore elbow, he’s not expected to miss any significant time. I’ve seen some conflicting reports about Pedro Feliz and his back (off-season surgery) but Charlie Manuel says he’ll be ready to start the season on time, too.

One player who will miss a significant amount of playing time is middle reliever J.C. Romero, who was a solid contributor last year but will be serving a 50 game suspension for taking a banned substance. This could make things interesting in Philadelphia, as their bullpen was such a factor in their success last year, and Romero appeared in 81 games, pitched 59 innings, and had a 2.75 ERA.

The rotation will of course include Hamels, Brett Myers (who has reported to camp a good deal slimmer, and is in the last year of his $25 million contract), Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton (also lost some weight), with Chan Ho Park looking likely to beat out J.A. Happ for the fifth starting position. Kyle Kendrick, who won 21 games for the Phillies in the last two years, has been sent to the minors to work on his change-up, but it’s probable that Philadelphia won’t see him as an effective starter again, especially with Carlos Carrasco waiting in the wings. And of course they no longer have Adam Eaton, and the less I say about that, the better.

That ‘pen that was so great last year also returns basically intact. Lidge closes things out, with Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey, J.A. Happ and probably Scott Eyre helping bridge the gap between the starters and the 41-0 Mr. Lidge.

The line-up will look a lot like last year:

Jimmy Rollins – SS

Shane Victorino – CF

Chase Utley – 2B

Ryan Howard – 1B

Raul Ibanez – LF

Jayson Werth – RF

Pedro Feliz – 3B

Carlos Ruiz – C

…with the big difference being in left field. Outside Philadelphia, the move to replace Burrell with Ibanez, who is older, more expensive, and a lefty, seemed curious at best. But lots of Philadelphia fans saw it as an improvement, albeit slight, hoping that Ibanez will provide a more consistent presence in the lineup than Burrell, who was quite streaky and frustrating at times yet somehow remained a fan favorite. And he is going from a pitcher’s park in Safeco field (park factor of .954) to a slight hitter’s park in Citizens Bank (park factor of 1.007). There’s also the idea that he’ll be less of a defensive liability than Pat the Bat, but there’s not a lot of hard data to support that claim, though the 2009 Bill James Handbook lists Ibanez as the 5th best fielder amongst regular LF’ers, with Pat Burrell at the very bottom in 21st (Baseball Prospectus describes Ibanez as “defensively challenged” and Burrell as having “no defensive value”).

It’s interesting to note that last year the Phillies were 2nd in the NL in Runs Scored per Game, at 4.94 – and that was with an ice-cold start by Ryan Howard, a first time trip to the DL for Jimmy Rollins in April, and an ailing Chase Utley. Scoring runs shouldn’t be a problem for this team, assuming they stay healthy.

There don’t appear to be any youngsters in spring training who are blowing people away and are going to force their way onto the roster. One exception is outfielder John Mayberry, Jr., who the Phillies received in a trade with the Texas Rangers, and who hits for power and has a good arm. He’s been optioned to the minor league camp but did well enough that there’s been talk of finding a spot on the bench for him, perhaps in mid-season.

That bench, by the way, is also largely unchanged from 2008, and includes new face Miguel Cairo (the only extra right-handed bat) with Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett and Chris Coste. There’s been speculation that the Phillies would trade or release Jenkins and/or Stairs, but nothing so far. If Cairo isn’t on the 25 man roster by the start of the season, he can ask for his release.

So it’s basically the same crew from last year that “caught lightning in a bottle” and became heroes in Philadelphia. It’s a long shot that they’ll repeat, but just because it’s so hard to do. The Phillies are still a very good team with several of the game’s premiere stars, a manager who may be fooling us with his “Aw shucks, I’m just a simple country boy” routine since he seems to get the most out of his players, owners who aren’t the biggest spenders in baseball but have deep pockets, and a new GM in Ruben Amaro who has been quietly waiting in the wings and studying hard for this role. They probably won’t see the benefit of another epic late-season collapse by the Mets, but the rest of the division doesn’t look ready to challenge them for the top spot yet, either.

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The Phillies have released RF Geoff Jenkins, apparently making room on their roster for Miguel Cairo.

There have been some rumors that the Phillies will pursue Gary Sheffield, but an article in the Philadelphia Daily News says "members of the organization were privately lukewarm" on the idea of adding Sheffield.

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20090401_Phillies_release_veteran_Geoff_Jenkins.html