O's July swoon

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, DEOriolesfan said:

My concern is the lack of offense against left handed pitchers. Continuously using McCann, Urias, Mateo (before injury) is a major issue. It won't get it done in October.

McCann will likely start zero games in October. That is a regular season thing to get Adley through 162. 

[DEOriolesfan]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

McCann will likely start zero games in October. That is a regular season thing to get Adley through 162. 

Kjerstad, O'Hearn, Cowser all left handed and very rarely start against lefties. How can we expect them to perform in postseason when we've essentially hidden them most of the season against lefties?

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

They’re not in danger of missing the playoffs but winning the division is a lot better than playing in the wildcard. And if they do play in the wildcard and advance, they may need 4 starters anyways. Skubal helps more in the playoffs but I could argue a rotation of Skubal/Kremer/Suarez (not including Burnes and GRod) is worse in the regular season than Fedde, Kikuchi, Kremer due to only having 3 quality starters rather than 4. ZiPS has both trios averaging out to 2 WAR the rest of the season, FWIW. 

Kremer figuring it out does solve a lot of issues but he’s pitched much better than his peripherals suggest the last few years, so it’s tough to decide if he’s just falling back to earth now or if we should expect better going forward. Pretty much, I think they can live with Suarez in the rotation if Kremer stabilizes. If Kremer doesn’t, it just doesn’t look great the rest of the season, even with a top 3 of Skubal/Burnes/Rodriguez. 

 

Winning the division gets you one round deeper but you still have to win three series. Do you think you have a better chance of winning four series with Skubal/Burnes/Grayson or three series with Burnes/Grayson/Fedde? 

I'm not even convinced Fedde/Kikuchi outperforms Skubal/(McDermott/Irvin/Povich) in the regular season. At 5 WAR, Skubal himself is worth about the same as the Fedde 4.5/Kikuchi 0.5 combo. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, DEOriolesfan said:

Kjerstad, O'Hearn, Cowser all left handed and very rarely start against lefties. How can we expect them to perform in postseason when we've essentially hidden them most of the season against lefties?

I'm guessing when rosters expand (barring trades) the extra guy will be a RHB, likely Mayo. 

Adley C, Gunnar SS, Santander RF, Mountcastle 1B, Westburg 2B/3B, Hays LF, Mayo DH, Urias 3B/Norby 2B, Cowser/Mullins CF

One of Cowser or Mullins has to play CF whether McCann is in the lineup or not. They each have about 70 AB vs LHP this year. 

I agree, if the plan is to play Kjerstad vs LHP then he should get more AB's against them. That appears not to be the case even though he has even splits. 

[LGOrioles]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Winning the division gets you one round deeper but you still have to win three series. Do you think you have a better chance of winning four series with Skubal/Burnes/Grayson or three series with Burnes/Grayson/Fedde? 

I'm not even convinced Fedde/Kikuchi outperforms Skubal/(McDermott/Irvin/Povich) in the regular season. At 5 WAR, Skubal himself is worth about the same as the Fedde 4.5/Kikuchi 0.5 combo. 

At best it’s maybe a 65% chance you win the wildcard, so yeah I would choose the clear path to the ALDS with a slightly weaker rotation rather than go through the WC with a stronger rotation. 

I think there’s an argument to be made either way, but I have little confidence in anyone besides Grayson and Burnes right now, so I would prefer them to add 2 good pitchers versus one ace if it comes down to it. 

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, ScGO's said:

O's have gone 15-16 since Kyle Bradish went down and we lost a true #3 option

O's are 8-5 in games GrayRod or Burnes have started. They are 7-11 in games started by any other pitchers in that span

This is why one SP is not enough. We need two, plus a solid RP who walks few and Ks many.

[Malike]

Since his return from the IL, Kremer has given up 0, 7, 2, 3 ER. I understand that the HRs have hurt him this season, but if pitching into the 6th inning and giving up 3 runs isn't good enough for the rotation like his last start in Texas, then we'll probably be disappointed with whomever they bring in to start games. You can't expect your number 4/5 starter to throw a shutout each turn and it's not unreasonable to expect if they keep allowing 3 runs or so, that we should win some of those games.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

At best it’s maybe a 65% chance you win the wildcard, so yeah I would choose the clear path to the ALDS with a slightly weaker rotation rather than go through the WC with a stronger rotation. 

I think there’s an argument to be made either way, but I have little confidence in anyone besides Grayson and Burnes right now, so I would prefer them to add 2 good pitchers versus one ace if it comes down to it. 

Think of it this way: Kikuchi is worth only 0.5 WAR this year. He hardly brings anything. For the last 1/3 of the season he would not be projected to make any W/L difference for us. Maybe there is a better 2nd guy we could get but they will cost more.

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Think of it this way: Kikuchi is worth only 0.5 WAR this year. He hardly brings anything. For the last 1/3 of the season he would not be projected to make any W/L difference for us. Maybe there is a better 2nd guy we could get but they will cost more.

FanGraphs has him at 2.2 WAR (26th among qualified SP’s) with a 3.57 FIP (29th), and 3.32 xFIP (15th). His xERA is 3.99. His SIERA is 3.39. His pitchbot ERA is 2.95 and his stuff+ is 11th in the league.

You’d be betting on the stuff and the peripherals to line up with his ERA (or at least closer to it) over the last 2 months of the season. I would certainly take him over any SP on the roster other than Burnes or Rodriguez. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

FanGraphs has him at 2.2 WAR (26th among qualified SP’s) with a 3.57 FIP (29th), and 3.32 xFIP (15th). His xERA is 3.99. His SIERA is 3.39. His pitchbot ERA is 2.95 and his stuff+ is 11th in the league.

You’d be betting on the stuff and the peripherals to line up with his ERA (or at least closer to it) over the last 2 months of the season. I would certainly take him over any SP on the roster other than Burnes or Rodriguez. 

He's given up 19 ER in his last 5 starts over 28 IP. I don't care what the metrics say, the performance hasn't been there, and we need results, not stuff+ rankings.

[LGOrioles]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

He's given up 19 ER in his last 5 starts over 28 IP. I don't care what the metrics say, the performance hasn't been there, and we need results, not stuff+ rankings.

You just posted about Kremer, who has given up 18 ER in his last 28.2 IP. I’m not saying Kikuchi is a true number 3, but I will certainly take him over Kremer as a number 4. Give me the guy with similar results but much better peripherals and stuff all day. 

Also, his ERA isn’t great this year but he has a 4.13 ERA and has been worth 4.8 WAR since last year. He’s better than any SP on the Orioles besides Burnes or Rodriguez.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

You just posted about Kremer, who has given up 18 ER in his last 28.2 IP. I’m not saying Kikuchi is a true number 3, but I will certainly take him over Kremer as a number 4. Give me the guy with similar results but much better peripherals and stuff all day. 

Also, his ERA isn’t great this year but he has a 4.13 ERA and has been worth 4.8 WAR since last year. He’s better than any SP on the Orioles besides Burnes or Rodriguez.

Kikuchi has a 4.54 ERA, I'm assuming you are pointing to FIP or something. He gives up a ton of HRs and hits and his WHIP is trash. He strikes people out, fWAR loves that, he isn't a sure upgrade over anyone the way he's pitched this year. I certainly wouldn't give Toronto anything of value for 10 starts of Kikuchi so we get to look at how dumb it was for the next 6 years.

[LGOrioles]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Kikuchi has a 4.54 ERA, I'm assuming you are pointing to FIP or something. He gives up a ton of HRs and hits and his WHIP is trash. He strikes people out, fWAR loves that, he isn't a sure upgrade over anyone the way he's pitched this year. I certainly wouldn't give Toronto anything of value for 10 starts of Kikuchi so we get to look at how dumb it was for the next 6 years.

I am pointing to FIP and virtually every peripheral as well as projection system. I don’t think he’s amazing but again, I will take him over anyone else we have besides Burnes and Rodriguez.

He has been bad in June and July but has a BABIP over .350 during that time frame with a LOB% around 65% and a HR/FB% around 20%. I wouldn’t trade a highly rated prospect for him but if you get the guy he was in April/May, he’s a difference maker. And he’s still an upgrade even if he just pitches to his averages since the beginning of last season. 

[Malike]

12 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I am pointing to FIP and virtually every peripheral as well as projection system. I don’t think he’s amazing but again, I will take him over anyone else we have besides Burnes and Rodriguez.

He has been bad in June and July but has a BABIP over .350 during that time frame with a LOB% around 65% and a HR/FB% around 20%. I wouldn’t trade a highly rated prospect for him but if you get the guy he was in April/May, he’s a difference maker. And he’s still an upgrade even if he just pitches to his averages since the beginning of last season. 

Hopefully, they do better. There is no guarantee that he will perform to any of his metrics. His pitching runs value has been awful this year and he is bottom of the barrel in Avg EV, Barrel %, and HH%. I want nothing to do with him.

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I am pointing to FIP and virtually every peripheral as well as projection system. I don’t think he’s amazing but again, I will take him over anyone else we have besides Burnes and Rodriguez.

He has been bad in June and July but has a BABIP over .350 during that time frame with a LOB% around 65% and a HR/FB% around 20%. I wouldn’t trade a highly rated prospect for him but if you get the guy he was in April/May, he’s a difference maker. And he’s still an upgrade even if he just pitches to his averages since the beginning of last season. 

Kikuchi has not been the April/May guy through most of his career. He did have a good year last year but I do not trust him at all. I could be on board with your overall point about getting two guys, but I don't think Kikuchi would be one of them. Then again, Kikuchi wouldn't cost much so I could even see getting Skubal and Kikuchi, depending on price.