A well-kept secret: the O’s rotation has the 6th best ERA in baseball

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s not any one thing.  It’s a collective slump.   In the 27-game period referenced above:

Cowser .677

Rutschman .571

O’Hearn .430

Jimenez .404

Holliday .378

RISP hitting also has been poor.   

Point is, these guys can break out if it.  I’m not saying they will, but they’re definitely capable of it.  And if they do, the starting pitching is capable of supporting them. 

Now go do it!

 

Here's how I look at this:

Cowser: .677 for a rookie in a first full year in the major leagues is not great, but acceptable especially since it comes with good outfield defense.

Rutschman: I'm still just hoping he's not 100% right because his sudden lack of productivity is a head scrather if not.

O'Hearn: Elias gambled and lost that O'Hearn would not turn into a 2nd half pumpkin like he did in his first season. O'Hearn turned into a pumpkin when the team needed him most.

Jimenez: Is totally a product of the failure of draft college bats philosophy after the 1st round. Sure, he would not be playing if injuries did not occur, but the Orioles should have had a better laternative. Oh yeah, they did in Norby but traded him away for Cole Irvin the 2nd.

Holliday: Probably one of the biggest disappointments. Clearly he does not belong in the major leagues right now, but is here because of injuries.

As for the pitching, the impact of Suarez stepping up this year out of nowhere can't be minimalized. Elias made a good trade to get Eflin and besides missing a few starts and one bad start, he's been pretty darn good.

I don't feel terrible about the rotation of Eflin, Burnes, Kremer/Suarez/Rodriguez being a 3 or 4 inning opener going into the playoffs. I'm less enthused about the pen.

[e16bball]

8 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Fair on its own, but the guys filling in for them have hit far worse. Mountcastle since June: .679 OPS. Mateo overall: .668. Getting those mediocre production levels from the likes of Eloy, Mayo, Holliday, and post-expanded-role O'Hearn, would still qualify as a huge improvement. 

This is classic of a large percentage of this fanbase at the moment, a lack of appreciation for the value of average or even below-average players.

Those numbers come out to something in the neighborhood a 90 OPS+ for both guys, so yes, squarely below average hitting for both. Not what you’re looking for, especially from a 1B.

But there is so much worse out there, and we’re experiencing it right now. There’s the next tier below “below average,” which is the replacement level stylings of guys like Cowser (.629 since 8/11), McCann (.616), and Rutschman (.561).  Which is brutal to watch and leaves glaring holes in your lineup.

But wait…there’s more. 

There’s yet another circle of hell below “replacement level.” There is the “I’m genuinely not sure the best guy in my beer league couldn’t do just as well” level of production. And that’s where we find guys like O’Hearn (.489), Jimenez (.450), Holliday (.441), and Mayo (.376). Those guys have soaked up more than 300 PAs during the last 32 games or so, which is over a quarter of our total PAs. One of every 4 batters coming to the plate has hit like something right between “replacement level” and “pitcher.”

That’s why you don’t just DFA or trade dump competent MLB players. Because lurking somewhere in the shadows behind “marginally below average” is “absolutely awful.” And those reliably decent players are what protect you from having to keep rolling dice that will eventually come up snake eyes. We would all absolutely kill to have two .675 OPS guys air-dropped into this lineup right now.

Edited Tuesday at 22:19 by e16bball

[sevastras]

Are the Os still paying Chris Davis?    (My attempt to joke and say if they are paying him maybe he should come back and “help” down the stretch. He actually may benefit from not having 6 guys on the right side). 

[Sports Guy]

I think I’d rather find another Eflin guy in the offseason than pay for Burnes.

[Hallas]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think I’d rather find another Eflin guy in the offseason than pay for Burnes.

I'm a little worried about how much trade bait we have left.  Our farm isn't really as overloaded as it used to be especially with how thin we suddenly are due to injuries.  With Santander leaving, Mountcastle and Mullins as likely trade bait, we potentially have an OF spot to fill as well.

[spiritof66]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think I’d rather find another Eflin guy in the offseason than pay for Burnes.

I would agree with that if there's reason for confidence that GRod and Bradish can pitch at (or near) their past levels. Bring in another established guy at the level of Elfin or even Kyle Gibson. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I'm a little worried about how much trade bait we have left.  Our farm isn't really as overloaded as it used to be especially with how thin we suddenly are due to injuries.  With Santander leaving, Mountcastle and Mullins as likely trade bait, we potentially have an OF spot to fill as well.

Doesn’t have to be a trade.

Some FA on my list now:

Pivetta, Snell, Nick Martinez(he’s kind of a 6th starter type guy but could be an asset either way and Andrew Heaney.  
 

Buehler is an interesting guy to take a flyer on.  Bieber on a 2 year deal could be intriguing.

Right now, Pivetta would be high on my list.  I could see an Eflin like rise for him. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I would agree with that if there's reason for confidence that GRod and Bradish can pitch at (or near) their past levels. Bring in another established guy at the level of Elfin or even Kyle Gibson. 

We won’t see Bradish next year in all likelihood.  If we do, I would guess out of the pen at the end of the year if we are in playoff race.

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Doesn’t have to be a trade.

Some FA on my list now:

Pivetta, Snell, Nick Martinez(he’s kind of a 6th starter type guy but could be an asset either way and Andrew Heaney.  
 

Buehler is an interesting guy to take a flyer on.  Bieber on a 2 year deal could be intriguing.

Right now, Pivetta would be high on my list.  I could see an Eflin like rise for him. 
 

 

Okay, that makes sense.  I guess we have to see if anyone else is willing to sign pillow deals.  I doubt Snell will, for example.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Hallas said:

Okay, that makes sense.  I guess we have to see if anyone else is willing to sign pillow deals.  I doubt Snell will, for example.

  No but Snell isn’t likely to get the deal he hopes for either.

Can you get him for 4 years or less?  If so, I’d take that chance.

Right now, realistically speaking, I’m signing Pivetta and one of Martinez or Heaney.  If you can get Bieber on a 2 year deal, where year 1 is cheap (since he won’t pitch the full season I doubt) and then a reasonably priced second year, I would also sign that.

Eflin, GRod, Pivetta and Kremer are your starters with Povich, Rogers and Heaney/Martinez fighting for the final spot..loser is in the pen. McDermott could factor in as well but late season injury probably causes him to be in AAA to start. 
 

Another option is using Kjerstad to get someone….shame we didn’t trade for Woo this year and I doubt he would be available now.

I think signing pitching and using Mounty to target relievers is a good way to go. Mullins is perhaps trade bait too but that depends on what else you can do in the OF.  
 

The WS are already saying they want to decrease payroll next year. Robert is definitely going to be available and the value is down. I’d make a run at him. 

Edited yesterday at 00:25 by Sports Guy

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

  No but Snell isn’t likely to get the deal he hopes for either.

Can you get him for 4 years or less?  If so, I’d take that chance.

Right now, realistically speaking, I’m signing Pivetta and one of Martinez or Heaney.  If you can get Bieber on a 2 year deal, where year 1 is cheap (since he won’t pitch the full season I doubt) and then a reasonably priced second year, I would also sign that.

Eflin, GRod, Pivetta and Kremer are your starters with Povich and Heaney/Martinez fighting for the final spot..loser is in the pen. McDermott could factor in as well but late season injury probably causes him to be in AAA to start. 
 

Another option is using Kjerstad to get someone….shame we didn’t trade for Woo this year and I doubt he would be available now.

I think signing pitching and using Mounty to target relievers is a good way to go. Mullins is perhaps trade bait too but that depends on what else you can do in the OF.  
 

The WS are already saying they want to decrease payroll next year. Robert is definitely going to be available and the value is down. I’d make a run at him. 

Oh I'm on board with most of this.  I originally was going to speculate that Snell might get 4/120-140 but I ended up deleting that.  Do you go for that?

 

I think trading Kjerstad is risky unless we're taking a stab at Soto (which is probably a pipe dream.)  We don't have a lot of cost controlled outfielders left that can produce at a level that we would be happy with.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Oh I'm on board with most of this.  I originally was going to speculate that Snell might get 4/120-140 but I ended up deleting that.  Do you go for that?

 

I think trading Kjerstad is risky unless we're taking a stab at Soto (which is probably a pipe dream.)  We don't have a lot of cost controlled outfielders left that can produce at a level that we would be happy with.

Yea I bite that bullet for Snell. Plenty of guys on this team still won’t be making any or very little money for the life of that contract.

I don’t disagree about Kjerstad. I would rather keep him but if he gets you a cost controlled starter, it’s worth considering.  Would rather keep him and sign some guys though. I really like Pivetta as a 2-3 year deal for 15-20M a year.