Count me on the Matzek bandwagon

ChaosLex · May 25, 2009

There are so many phenomenal pitching prospects that are going to be available at #5, it's truly going to be hard to choose between them. Of course, this is provided we go with a pitcher in the 1st round of this year's draft.

Perhaps it's just me, but there's just something about Matzek that screams out future ace to me. I don't know what that "something" is; however, what I do know is that if he's available at #5, I sincerely hope the O's are all over him. High school level be damned!

Does anyone else look at this kid and see the next Kershaw-esque talent?

Duke2010 · May 25, 2009

I'm on the Crow bandwagon myself, and I feel like we'll end up with one of Crow or Matzek. Either way we're getting a very solid talent, and despite being a high schooler, I think that Matzek could reach the majors fairly quickly.

At this point, I'd say that I'm a bigger fan of Crow because I like his mix of pitches plus his attitude on the mound, and he could potentially be ready to help the big club by late 2010. But on the other hand, I don't see how anyone could be upset with a potential younger version of our own Brian Matusz.

Hank Scorpio · May 25, 2009

Not Kershaw-esque talent, IMO.

Still damn good, though. He'd be a quality pick @ 1:5.

Duke2010 · May 25, 2009

Not Kershaw-esque talent, IMO.
Still damn good, though. He'd be a quality pick @ 1:5.

I agree. Kershaw is a tick above Matzek with the fastball, and Kershaw had the better breaking stuff at the same point in their careers. However, in three or four years, I could see Matzek becoming one of the better prospects in the game, and I really like his delivery. Looks pretty smooth and I would think that he's a fairly low injury risk.

Greg Pappas · May 25, 2009

The HS arms, while historically the riskiest bunch, are again impressive this year. Very little separates Matzek with Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller or Jacob Turner. Those four have stepped it up big time, while guys like Matt Purke and Garrett Gould are only a shade behind... for now.

The reports on Wheeler have me pretty excited, and he may have just pitched himself into the top 5. It wouldn't shock me to see Joe Jordan go HS arm, as he would have some great projection in that group.

Moose Milligan · May 25, 2009

I don't care who we pick...I just want to see another Smoak meltdown.

ChaosLex · May 25, 2009

The HS arms, while historically the riskiest bunch, are again impressive this year. Very little seperates Matzek with Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller or Jacob Turner. Those four have stepped it up big time, while guys like Matt Purke and Garrett Gould are only a shade behind... for now.
The reports on Wheeler have me pretty excited, and he may have just pitched himself into the top 5. It wouldn't shock me to see Joe Jordan go HS arm, as he would have some great projection in that group.

Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me either. I know a lot of people (Sports Guy included) are skeptical of drafting a high school pitcher in the first round, especially after what happened with Adam Loewen, but every great leader has to take chances. It's undecided whether or not Matzek (and the rest) will live up to their potential, but I wouldn't mind finding out. Even at the cost of an early 1st round draft pick.

Sports Guy · May 25, 2009

Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me either. I know a lot of people (Sports Guy included) are skeptical of drafting a high school pitcher in the first round, especially after what happened with Adam Loewen, but every great leader has to take chances. It's undecided whether or not Matzek (and the rest) will live up to their potential, but I wouldn't mind finding out. Even at the cost of an early 1st round draft pick.

Let me be clear here...I am skeptical about drafting a HS pitcher with a high first round pick(ie top 10) unless that pitcher is a very special talent.

If you feel someone is a Beckett-like talent out of HS, then ok...But if you feel he is a very good talent but not much better than any of the college players, then you pass on the HS kid.

allstar1579 · May 25, 2009

Let me be clear here...I am skeptical about drafting a HS pitcher with a high first round pick(ie top 10) unless that pitcher is a very special talent.
If you feel someone is a Beckett-like talent out of HS, then ok...But if you feel he is a very good talent but not much better than any of the college players, then you pass on the HS kid.

The problem is, that is relevant to the available talent. There is no clear Beckett like talent this year aside from Strasburg, HS, college and pro alike. You just have to look at what you have to pick from and decide if you are going to go high upside and longer development time (in order to create a second wave of pitching talent and keeping the flow continuous over time) or if you want to try to go college and go lower floor, lower ceiling.

I personally feel that with the wealth of pitching talent we have coming at the mid-high levels it would be a perfect time to take advantage of the deep HS pitching talent this year. We aren't in as dire straits as the Nats for instance who could use help right now (I expect them to go 2 college arms in the top 10), we have guys coming, and could really use guys that will develop after these guys have had a chance to get established or flame out, whatever happens.

Arthur_Bryant · May 25, 2009

The problem is, that is relevant to the available talent. There is no clear Beckett like talent this year aside from Strasburg, HS, college and pro alike. You just have to look at what you have to pick from and decide if you are going to go high upside and longer development time (in order to create a second wave of pitching talent and keeping the flow continuous over time) or if you want to try to go college and go lower floor, lower ceiling.
I personally feel that with the wealth of pitching talent we have coming at the mid-high levels it would be a perfect time to take advantage of the deep HS pitching talent this year. We aren't in as dire straits as the Nats for instance who could use help right now (I expect them to go 2 college arms in the top 10), we have guys coming, and could really use guys that will develop after these guys have had a chance to get established or flame out, whatever happens.

Seems to me that the depth of an organization's talent ought to figure into draft strategy. Some teams really need to minimize risk so as to give themselves the best chance of getting something meaningful out of a very valuable pick.

It's kind of like giving $100,000 in investment money to a salaried worker and a multi-millionaire, with the proviso that they can make only one investment. The first guy really should be conservative. The millionaire can afford to lay it on a high-risk investment with a high potential yield.

I thought that the O's were more in the first camp last year, and that Smoak would've been closer to a sure thing -- I know, there are arguments why that might not have been the case. But the continued successful development of the young arms seems to allow them to take a flier on a high-upside HS arm. And, as you point out, a HSer would fit just right into the talent flow.

And although I'm no expert, Matzek sure looks good to me. Purke, not so much.

allstar1579 · May 25, 2009

Seems to me that the depth of an organization's talent ought to figure into draft strategy. Some teams really need to minimize risk so as to give themselves the best chance of getting something meaningful out of a very valuable pick.
It's kind of like giving $100,000 in investment money to a salaried worker and a multi-millionaire, with the proviso that they can make only one investment. The first guy really should be conservative. The millionaire can afford to lay it on a high-risk investment with a high potential yield.

I thought that the O's were more in the first camp last year, and that Smoak would've been closer to a sure thing -- I know, there are arguments why that might not have been the case. But the continued successful development of the young arms seems to allow them to take a flier on a high-upside HS arm. And, as you point out, a HSer would fit just right into the talent flow.

And although I'm no expert, Matzek sure looks good to me. Purke, not so much.

Yeah it's more of a preference and personal job security thing. If you have been scouting director for a team that hasn't drafted well recently you could feel the pressure to produce SOMETHING, no matter how good, but the really good guys will stick to their guns and do it the right way.

As hard as it is to do sometimes, you have to take the best player out there, I guess the real question is the subjectivity of BPA. For some teams it's the guy with the highest upside, for some teams it's the guy they have ranked overall the highest, and for some teams it could be the safest bet to reach the majors.

I'd be willing to bet last year it was a lot closer between Smoak and Matusz than any of us know, it's not like it was a choice between Smoak and a "projectable" guy like Turner this year. I just firmly believe that a good pitcher can be judged on the strength of his secondary pitches, and Matzek has by far the highest ceiling there. I mean, plenty of guys can throw 98-100mph, but a real closer has a great offspeed pitch to compliment it, and a great starter would have a couple different pitches to compliment it. This year just works out that the HS pitching depth is pretty good (Matzek, Miller, Purke and Wheeler all look legit, not a fan of Turner though).

I'll have more on some of this when I do my write ups for some of the HS guys tonight, just trying to finish it up now.

dcterp · June 2, 2009

Jim Callis of BA did an online chat with fans in the Dallas Forth Worth newspaper. If I'm reading his comments correctly it looks like he's saying that Matzek's FB has been clocked as high as 98.

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/06/live-chat-with-baseball-americas-jim-cal.html

What HS pitcher would you say has the most upside? I am really looking for what guy you believe has the most long term potential?

1:51 Jim Callis: Tyler Matzek, LHP from California. Has hit some 98s recently and does it with very little effort. He's pretty polished for a high schooler, too.

QBsILLEST1 · June 2, 2009

If Matzek is hitting 98 mph on the gun with very little effort, then he is hands down the best HS pitching prospect. The one thing that the other HS pitchers had on him was a bit more heat on the fastball, if he is throwing that hard with little effort and those sweet mechanics with his advanced repetoire and command, he would be awesome to have in our system. He was already ahead of everyone else with the other aspects of pitching, and this would definately seal the deal for me.....

Now the question is how true is this? Hes not a Boras guy right?

WebLink21 · June 2, 2009

Jim Callis of BA did an online chat with fans in the Dallas Forth Worth newspaper. If I'm reading his comments correctly it looks like he's saying that Matzek's FB has been clocked as high as 98.
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/06/live-chat-with-baseball-americas-jim-cal.html

What HS pitcher would you say has the most upside? I am really looking for what guy you believe has the most long term potential?

1:51 Jim Callis: Tyler Matzek, LHP from California. Has hit some 98s recently and does it with very little effort. He's pretty polished for a high schooler, too.

Wow! If this is true I do not think that Matzek will be available at pick #5. Sounds like the perfect pick for a low budget team like Pitt or SD. That would be an easy sell to the fans. Does Boras represent Matzek?

ChaosLex · June 2, 2009

Wow! If this is true I do not think that Matzek will be available at pick #5. Sounds like the perfect pick for a low budget team like Pitt or SD. That would be an easy sell to the fans. Does Boras represent Matzek?

Maybe. Although I'm not sure if a team with as many woes as the Pads or Bucs should take a high school pitcher with the 1st pick.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Matzek is still on the board when we pick.

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