Who are we looking at to take with our 1st round pick?

[allstar1579]

Allstar,

Is there a difference between what you are saying Tate is doing and someone telling teams that they really want to go to school for the college experience?

I guess I'm just (no offense intended) rubbed the wrong way a bit by your characterizations of Tate this spring -- especially since his family stated early on that they weren't going to discuss anything in public, and that Tate was committed to UNC.

I guess I don't see that as being any different than Purke saying "I'm not even thinking about the draft, I'm focused on the high school season and pitching for TCU next year -- whatever happens with the draft happens." (me paraphrasing Purke).

I know we don't really see eye to eye on the Tate thing, don't worry I'm not offended, I have been careful to say every time I mention it that it is the impression that I get. That is what I was saying a minute ago, that I would totally respect the situation if he would just say, I am focused on going to UNC blah blah, at least something to that effect, but the silence is almost what rubs me the wrong way. Teams and guys "in the know" wouldn't be thinking of drafting him in the top 5-10 picks if they were telling teams that they were positive he wanted to go to school and he wouldn't sign as some guys do. After that fiasco from last offseason where he said he was done with football to focus on baseball and the draft, and then as soon as he gets a call from Pete Carroll about a possible football scholarship as well he goes back on it and plays football this year.

Maybe I'm reading more into it than I should (but I am pretty good at that) but it really seems like he is a football first guy, and then baseball is his back up plan. Again, this is just my opinion because he's never going to come out and say that and hurt any kind of draft status, but between the sudden interest in football once he finds out he can play both, and the not issuing any public statements at all has just struck me wrong.

If he would come out and say I'm 100% into playing baseball for UNC and that is all I'm focusing on, then I'd be fine with that, and if a team thought they could talk him out of it, that is their prerogative. He hasn't said anything to that effect either though, I guess it's just an issue of being too non-committal either way. I didn't see him even talk about going to college until someone started offering him 2-sport deals, doesn't sit well with me personally.

[allstar1579]

For whatever it's worth, I don't think Tate has huge issues. I think gauging a player's interest is pretty easily done by sitting down and speaking with him. He could stay up the middle (in center field) and end up an average hitter with plus power, plus to plus-plus speed, plus defense and a plus arm.

I've seen him twice, and neither time was he dogging it. He had great at bats, working the count against some of the better HS competition in the class, and was aggressive and observant on the base paths.

I don't know how much I'd spend on him -- I'd have to sit down and figure out what he was looking for, and to be honest he may be better off going to school -- but I don't have any doubts that he could be a good to great major league outfielder.

Like I said, ability wise I agree with you. He's a five tool talent, I don't argue that at all. I put a lot less stock into 5-tool HS guys compared to guys you still see as 5-tool players in college though, it's just more of a preference thing I guess, but I'm just so used to seeing 5-tool types end up as 3-tool types later in development that I just really like to see them go to college for 2 years and see what they look like when they finish growing.

[Big Mac]

Crow is my favorite pitcher not named Strasburg, but I feel that the leverage issue is one that another team, like the Pirates might try to take advantage of. For a team that doesn't love to spend on the draft, it's best of both worlds for them. Top-5 talent for reasonable money.

If the pick is Crow, I certainly won't be disappointed. Same with Green, Gibson, and even Tate.

Yeah, Crow is the guy I'd be looking to take. It is a very appealing situation, you can sign him for a reasonable deal, and get him about 2 months of starts at Frederick (and maybe some at Bowie). He is a potential #1 SP who could be pitching for us very soon.

[QBsILLEST1]

Heres the question then, if Crow is gone but Scheppers is available and his medical comes back as 100% good and no sign on future arm problems, do you take him?

I personally would, and the only thing separating me between Crow and Scheppers is the arm injury. Take that out and I am pretty even on the 2, though I like Crow's polish and changeup slightly slightly more than Scheppers better fastball and extra breaking pitch.....

[allstar1579]

As much as I want to like Grant Green, I just can't bring myself to do it. He'd fit prefectly into our system as a position player and a SS to boot. However, there's just too many things that bother me about him. His plate discipline is not great. 20 walks and 38 K's in 211 AB's is certainly not great for a college player. He's advertised as having good speed but he's never had a great success rate (16-24 this year) in stolen bases. The draft experts I've read say he has the potential to be a 15-20 homer ML player. Pretty good but not great. He's got 18 errors this year in 54 games. I've read mixed reviews on his defense. Some say he's excellent and some say he might have to swtich to 3B down the road. He's supposed to have good power but has never hit more than 9 homers in a college season with just 4 this year. He did hit 6 in the Cape Cod summer league last year but that hardly led the league. The last time we drafted a USC player in the 1st round, he also had had a great Cape season. Mark Smith, OF, hit .400 at the Cape. That reason is more anecdotal than anything else, but I just don't see enough to get excited about and just too many red flags with this guy.

I'll take a pitcher, I guess. Crow or Matzek sound the best right now. Alex White is scaring me a little bit, considering his disappointing season.

Don't forget that statistics are an indicator of performance, not talent. Just because someone doesn't put up huge steal numbers doesn't mean they don't have speed. Just because they don't hit a lot of HR, doesn't mean they don't have power. It's really hard to read these players without seeing them a few times and reading between the lines so to speak.

[crawdad]

Don't forget that statistics are an indicator of performance, not talent. Just because someone doesn't put up huge steal numbers doesn't mean they don't have speed. Just because they don't hit a lot of HR, doesn't mean they don't have power. It's really hard to read these players without seeing them a few times and reading between the lines so to speak.

Actually, I'd say that statistics are an indicator of performance and talent. For the most part, it more strongly correlates to performance than it does to talent.

[allstar1579]

Actually, I'd say that statistics are an indicator of performance and talent. For the most part, it more strongly correlates to performance than it does to talent.

I totally saw you saying this as soon as I hit post. But yeah, I'll agree with you.

[crawdad]

I totally saw you saying this as soon as I hit post. But yeah, I'll agree with you.

I know, stat geek and all. One of these days I'll leave my mother's basement.

[allstar1579]

I know, stat geek and all. One of these days I'll leave my mother's basement.

Haha, just two different approaches. I couldn't do what I do without stats and I'm sure you couldn't do what you do without scouting.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osdraft602,0,4689923.story?track=rss

Sounds like they are thinking pitching...passing on Green as of right now?

[allstar1579]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osdraft602,0,4689923.story?track=rss

Sounds like they are thinking pitching...passing on Green as of right now?

Yeah, I mean Green isn't a horrible pick or anything, but a lot of those pitching guys are much better talents. If a guy like Matzek or maybe Crow is still there, you really gotta lean that way.

There are some lesser INF options that will be around 2-5 rounds that could have really good bats though.

[Greg Pappas]

Yeah, I mean Green isn't a horrible pick or anything, but a lot of those pitching guys are much better talents. If a guy like Matzek or maybe Crow is still there, you really gotta lean that way.

There are some lesser INF options that will be around 2-5 rounds that could have really good bats though.

I have to disagree with the comment that a lot of the top pitchers (outside Strasburg) are much better talents than Green. The Orioles may go Crow or Matzek or another pitcher, and it would be a very good arm and excellent talent, no doubt, but I think I rank Green more highly than you do.

[Sports Guy]

I have to disagree with the comment that a lot of the top pitchers (outside Strasburg) are much better talents than Green. The Orioles may go Crow or Matzek or another pitcher, and it would be a very good arm and excellent talent, no doubt, but I think I rank Green more highly than you do.

Give me Green over the HS pitcher if you think Green can stay at SS.

In fact, if you think he is an above average SS, he is the pick over anyone that is likely to be there.

[crawdad]

Hypothetical question. If Green's ceiling were to become a .280, 15 hr, ML average defensive SS, would you take that over the other choices at #5?

If it was certain he could provide that for 4 of the 6 years we had him under control . . . yes. I would take him and that certainty over the others.

[Sports Guy]

Hypothetical question. If Green's ceiling were to become a .280, 15 hr, ML average defensive SS, would you take that over the other choices at #5?

Probably...That would make him an above average ML SS...if you knew that you could draft an above average player for arguably the hardest position to find on the diamond, then I think you do it...especially since it sounds like there is no clear cut pitcher we should draft.