Poll: Who would be more of a gamble?

[ChaosLex]

Poll to come...

[ChaosLex]

The reason I include these two names in the poll is because I've seen a lot of posters worried about both Matzek (because he's a high school pitcher) and Scheppers (because of his injury history).

Both of these kids have all the upside in the world, IMO. I'm just wondering who y'all think would be the more riskier gamble.

[crawdad]

I really cannot answer this question because I have no idea to type and severity of Scheppers injury.

[allstar1579]

I really cannot answer this question because I have no idea to type and severity of Scheppers injury.

That is actually the reason why I said he's more of a gamble, because it's possible the injury was a bad one that could linger. If I knew what it was I could make a better decision.

[Stotle]

I missed what the concerns are about Matzek. Someone kindly hook a brotha up?

[crawdad]

That is actually the reason why I said he's more of a gamble, because it's possible the injury was a bad one that could linger. If I knew what it was I could make a better decision.

I figure Matzek in the low 90s vs a completely healthy Scheppers . . . I imagine Scheppers might be the better bet to be a MLB quality pitcher. Anything deviating from that would tip things in Matzek's favor by a considerable margin. Those things being that Matzek is throwing harder or Scheppers is not completely healthy. More than likely, I imagine the scale will tip in Matzek's favor, but there is so much uncertainty . . . I just do not know how I can honestly answer the question beyond I don't know.

I do know that I would take Matzek over Scheppers.

[crawdad]

I missed what the concerns are about Matzek. Someone kindly hook a brotha up?

I don't think there are any concerns beyond the whole he has pitched less, so he has less wear and tear on his arm. Just basic high school mumbo jumbo fear that I do not really buy into.

[Stotle]

I don't think there are any concerns beyond the whole he has pitched less, so he has less wear and tear on his arm. Just basic high school mumbo jumbo fear that I do not really buy into.

Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't understand (well I sort of do I guess) why we haven't moved past the broad strokes of "HS = less likely to succeed". It isn't perfect, but there are a lot more tools to use in evaluating than there were ten years ago.

EDIT -- Just realized that could have come off wrong. Chaos, that wasn't directed at you -- I've read two well-followed writers who have recently expresed the same general HS concerns. I was just blathering out loud. Pay me no mind.

[allstar1579]

I figure Matzek in the low 90s vs a completely healthy Scheppers . . . I imagine Scheppers might be the better bet to be a MLB quality pitcher. Anything deviating from that would tip things in Matzek's favor by a considerable margin. Those things being that Matzek is throwing harder or Scheppers is not completely healthy. More than likely, I imagine the scale will tip in Matzek's favor, but there is so much uncertainty . . . I just do not know how I can honestly answer the question beyond I don't know.

I do know that I would take Matzek over Scheppers.

Yeah same here, but I've said 100 times, I really like the guys with secondary pitches and polish more so than the harder throwers, so Matzek is really just my kinda guy.

[crawdad]

Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't understand (well I sort of do I guess) why we haven't moved past the broad strokes of "HS = less likely to succeed". It isn't perfect, but there are a lot more tools to use in evaluating than there were ten years ago.

Right . . . the argument does not really hold up. I think as it stands right now . . . LHSP from college are the only ones with a weirdly significant increase rate in terms of success. Though . . . there are so few of them, it may just be a blip. It is difficult to take much from these simple descriptive statistics because each data point is chosen via such a myriad different perspectives.

We really need to convince MLB to just let one person pick people for every team for about 5 years straight . . . then we might have some useful data.

[Stotle]

Right . . . the argument does not really hold up. I think as it stands right now . . . LHSP from college are the only ones with a weirdly significant increase rate in terms of success. Though . . . there are so few of them, it may just be a blip. It is difficult to take much from these simple descriptive statistics because each data point is chosen via such a myriad different perspectives.

We really need to convince MLB to just let one person pick people for every team for about 5 years straight . . . then we might have some useful data.

You mean like just let Keith Law assign amateurs to organizations? That would be interesting...

[crawdad]

Yeah same here, but I've said 100 times, I really like the guys with secondary pitches and polish more so than the harder throwers, so Matzek is really just my kinda guy.

I guess it depends what the base level is. I think a hard throwing college guy with reasonable accuracy has a better chance of being a middle reliever than a polished high school pitcher with secondary pitches. If we raise the base level to starting pitcher . . . I think Matzek takes it.

[crawdad]

You mean like just let Keith Law assign amateurs to organizations? That would be interesting...

Or me.

Since I am acting like an agent as well, I assume I will get 5% of every contract signed.

[Stotle]

Or me.

Since I am acting like an agent as well, I assume I will get 5% of every contract signed.

That would pay for a lot of test tubes. Keith could go out to even more restaurants and buy lots of books and stuff. If only more of his fans could incorporate food and literature questions into his baseball chats.

[crawdad]

That would pay for a lot of test tubes. Keith could go out to even more restaurants and buy lots of books and stuff. If only more of his fans could incorporate food and literature questions into his baseball chats.

How can you forget his music selections. I am just waiting for ESPN to start issuing Keith Law mix CDs with their subscriptions to ESPN the Magazine.