Shadow Draft

[Stotle]

Why is it an incorrect critique when you follow that statement up admitting the guys can't be signed or should be swapped out?

If one is drafting combinations of guys that are in excess of what teams are spending in reality, then it's a wish list - not an exercise worth judging against what real GMs do.

Your critique was solely based on perceived cost. That's an incomplete thought, isn't it? I don't think JT's grouping was optimal, but I also don't think it's incorrect to imply that BAL could have targeted a couple more signability guys.

Let's see who of these players sign and for how much, then we can judge how crazy it is. Matzek is really the only part that seems like a stretch. Otherwise, I don't see a crazy issue from a cost perspective. I also think the way this draft unfolded, some teams missed an opportunity to grab guys that were signable and droped (as opposed to dropping because they would be difficult signings). I think OAK and PIT (off the top of my head) seemed to somewhat take this into account.

[rhall]

These are most of the players that were mentioned in the thread and what they've done to this point. It's very early. Any surprises or disappointments?

17. Danny Fields (19 years old) (High A - Florida St L)

12 games, .256 AVG, .666 OPS

If anyone else was surprised to see Fields in High A, here's a little more info.

He started the season in extended spring training to work on his defense. Towards the end of ST, the Tigers moved him into the outfield so they wanted to give him some more time at his new position before he had to play it in a game. He was promoted straight to High A when there was an injury that forced them to reshuffle the deck, so to speak.

It's still an honor that the Tigers chose to promote him straight out of Ext. ST, but I thought I'd put that into context. I would not be surprised to see him demoted back to Single-A at some point.

As for the rest of those players... I'd say the only other surprise (yes, Fields playing High A is a surprise to me) is Wheeler. His struggles so far are definitely a disappointment. An interesting comment, BA's Prospect Handbook scouting report for Wheeler actually said that he was more advanced coming out of high school than Madison Bumgarner was. Needless to say, Wheeler isn't repaying them for that vote of confidence.

[PBR Street Gang]

These are most of the players that were mentioned in the thread and what they've done to this point. It's very early. Any surprises or disappointments?

1. Zach Wheeler (22 years old in 5/30) (Low A - SAL)

4 G's, 13 IP, 11 H, 11 walks, 15 K's, 6.23 ERA

1A. Grant Green, 22 years old (High A - California League)

104 AB's, 2 hrs, 9 RBI, 4 walks, 22 K's, .700 OPS

2. Tommy Mendonca, 22 years old (High A - California League)

75 AB, .227 AVG, 0 homers, 4 BB's, 23 K's

3. Jeff Malm, 19 years old (no league. Must be starting in SS league in June)

4. Ian Krol, 19 years old (21 IP, 19 H, 6 BB, 19 K's, 3.43 ERA)

5. Todd Glaesman (no league. SS in June)

6. Chris Dominguez (23 years old) (Low A - SAL)

96 AB's, 3 walks, 25 K's, .755 OPS

7. Kent Matthes (23 years old) (not playing full season ball)

8. Max Stassi (19 years old) (Low A - Midwest League)

81 AB's, 10 walks, 33 K's, 3 hrs, 14 RBI, .718 OPS, .235 AVG

9. Dustin Dickerson (22 years old) (not playing full season ball)

10. Madison Younginer (19 years old) (signed late- didn't play last year and yet to play this year)

11. Brody Colvin (19 years old)

5 games, 22 IP, 30 H, 10 walks, 16 K's, 9.41 ERA

12. Kendal Volz (22 years old) (Low A - SAL)

23 IP, 21 H, 0 BB's, 17 K's, 2.74 ERA

13. Brian Moran (21 years old) (Low A - Midwest L)

As a reliver. 7 G's, 12 IP, 9 H, 0 BB's, 17 K's

14. Kyle Seager (22 years old) (High A - Cal L)

80 AB's, 1 hr. 6 RBI, .313 AVG, .852 OPS

15. Garret Gould (18 years old) (not paying full season ball)

16. Dan Tuttle (19 years old) (not playing full season ball)

17. Danny Fields (19 years old) (High A - Florida St L)

12 games, .256 AVG, .666 OPS

Thanks RZNJ, I tried to give you rep but need to spread some around first. That's a lot of work and it's appreciated.

[Arthur_Bryant]

These are most of the players that were mentioned in the thread and what they've done to this point. It's very early. Any surprises or disappointments?

As you say, it's early. But both Green and Mendonca have been less than scintillating (.700 OPS and .622 OPS respectively, with ugly K/BB ratios). Not what you would want to see from highly-regarded players out of Division 1 programs, in the California League, no less. Mendonca with 23 K in 75 ABs--yikes!

It'll be interesting to watch Max Stassi, Will Myers, and Michael Ohlman, who are all in A ball after being big-money overslot catchers last year. Myers so far has outhit the others.

[allstar1579]

As you say, it's early. But both Green and Mendonca have been less than scintillating (.700 OPS and .622 OPS respectively, with ugly K/BB ratios). Not what you would want to see from highly-regarded players out of Division 1 programs, in the California League, no less. Mendonca with 23 K in 75 ABs--yikes!

It'll be interesting to watch Max Stassi, Will Myers, and Michael Ohlman, who are all in A ball after being big-money overslot catchers last year. Myers so far has outhit the others.

I never expect anyone outside the top 5 to put up real remarkable numbers their first pro year. It happens here and there, especially with college pitchers, but I never really expect anything until they've had a good year of professional coaching and experience. Look at Avery and Hoes, people were freaking out last year because their numbers weren't great, but after a full year, they come out this season and look like totally different guys.

[Stotle]

Krol looks good. I don't really think too much can be drawn from a month of action, but it's interesting to see early returns.

[Stotle]

I never expect anyone outside the top 5 to put up real remarkable numbers their first pro year. It happens here and there, especially with college pitchers, but I never really expect anything until they've had a good year of professional coaching and experience. Look at Avery and Hoes, people were freaking out last year because their numbers weren't great, but after a full year, they come out this season and look like totally different guys.

I wouldn't say everyone was freaked-out. I was less high on Avery, but only dropped Hoes from #9 to #11 on Top 20, and I know others shared the thought that Hoes would be fine (I think maybe RZNJ was one of those people?). Agree that making any sort of meaningful assessment after a month is unlikely.

[Stotle]

Certainly, it's impossible to draw conclusions from 1 month of baseball. However, I would call it an early concern that college players Green, Mendonca, and Dominguez are not showing very good plate discipline. No conclusions. Just an early observation.

Yeah, but these are three college players that weren't ever particularly great BB/SO guys, no? I mean, Mendonca and Dominguez in particular are power bats that project to hit for below-avg hit tool. Certainly grant that Green is somewhat of a concern, though again it's only a month into his pro career.

[Stotle]

Ok. Let me put it another way. For what some may have considered advanced college bats, their numbers don't look so good, so far. Let's take Mendonca. After striking out 66 times and walking just 9 times in short season ball, where he did show some power, he's still striking out 1/3 of the time and has yet to hit a homer. He may start to hit some but those plate discipline numbers aren't just bad, they're terrible. He's making Xavier Avery look like Wade Boggs. Dominguez is 23 years old and in low A ball. He should be raking down there. Again, it's still early. He may go on a tear. But for his age, 3 walks and 25 K's in Low A ball is a scary start even with the power numbers being decent. JMO

Oh, I don't disagree that the stats aren't good. I just think that's why Dominguez was a third rounder -- the power is legit but the plate discipline was a question even against college pitching. Mendonca has more defensive value, so I'm not surprised he went earlier. But again the discipline hasn't ever really been there. These weren't advanced bats, just powerful ones. College doesn't always mean more disciplined, IMO.

[allstar1579]

Oh, I don't disagree that the stats aren't good. I just think that's why Dominguez was a third rounder -- the power is legit but the plate discipline was a question even against college pitching. Mendonca has more defensive value, so I'm not surprised he went earlier. But again the discipline hasn't ever really been there. These weren't advanced bats, just powerful ones. College doesn't always mean more disciplined, IMO.

I think they were talked about a bit more about here because of the lack of positional prospects last year too though. You have a good chunk of HS bats that are much better than either of them last year. Guys like Machado, Colon, Castellanos, Y. Cabrera, not to mention Brentz and some of the HS OF are a lot better than what I remember being around last year. Yet another reason I was so NOT happy about giving up the 2nd rounder for M.G. this year. Hopefully with the money saved from that pick we get a couple more tough signs like last year.

[Stotle]

I think they were talked about a bit more about here because of the lack of positional prospects last year too though. You have a good chunk of HS bats that are much better than either of them last year. Guys like Machado, Colon, Castellanos, Y. Cabrera, not to mention Brentz and some of the HS OF are a lot better than what I remember being around last year. Yet another reason I was so NOT happy about giving up the 2nd rounder for M.G. this year. Hopefully with the money saved from that pick we get a couple more tough signs like last year.

Yeah, but why are you comparing potential 1st round bats this year with 2nd and 3rd round bats from last year? I mean, out of the guys you listed, Cabrera has probably slipped the most (maybe to the supp or 2nd). But Colon, Castellanos, Machado and Brentz are all almost certainly 1st rounders.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, but why are you comparing potential 1st round bats this year with 2nd and 3rd round bats from last year? I mean, out of the guys you listed, Cabrera has probably slipped the most (maybe to the supp or 2nd). But Colon, Castellanos, Machado and Brentz are all almost certainly 1st rounders.

Wasn't trying to compare apples to apples, I guess I could have thrown Borchering, Trout or Franklin's stats around first, I more just meant like you said most of those guys look to be first rounders, and I would have taken most of last year's first round position guys after all of these guys. I feel like it's MUCH deeper this year. Is that just me?

[Stotle]

Wasn't trying to compare apples to apples, I guess I could have thrown Borchering, Trout or Franklin's stats around first, I more just meant like you said most of those guys look to be first rounders, and I would have taken most of last year's first round position guys after all of these guys. I feel like it's MUCH deeper this year. Is that just me?

Ehhh. I think it's deeper once you start moving into the draft, but not at the tap. This year basically looks like pitching, pitching, pitching up top to me.

[allstar1579]

Ehhh. I think it's deeper once you start moving into the draft, but not at the tap. This year basically looks like pitching, pitching, pitching up top to me.

Definitely with you there, but in the latter half of the first I REALLY like some of the young bats this year.