20/20 Rowell Hindsight

[3M9]

How would he handle a demotion to Delmarva? gotta tell you - he probably would go to Delmarva, and not do anything different than he's doing right now. He'd walk to his position, he'd pick up any ball that's rolling out to him, toss it in. He'd take awful 3 and 1 count swings on pitches down and away and just keep doing it his way.

You'd like to think that he'd get upset, light a fire, then just get after it. But won't happen.

[allstar1579]

The same is true for every single draft. No team drafts the player that ends up as the best one every time.

Yeah, that's why I try to avoid draft results after the fact. Knowing we could have had Lincecum, Joba, and LaPorta that year stings a lot, but then when you figure in signing costs versus the draft itself it's impossible to be perfect. Well until someone builds a Delorean and travels back to 1995 to straighten things out.

[BaltimoreTerp]

How would he handle a demotion to Delmarva? gotta tell you - he probably would go to Delmarva, and not do anything different than he's doing right now. He'd walk to his position, he'd pick up any ball that's rolling out to him, toss it in. He'd take awful 3 and 1 count swings on pitches down and away and just keep doing it his way.

You'd like to think that he'd get upset, light a fire, then just get after it. But won't happen.

And you know him that well?

[3M9]

I don't know him at all. But if you watch the game, how it's played, see how he goes about it you'll know that it's an accurate assessment. Again, this comes from years of experience of watching the game and speaking w/ players involved in the game. Certainly doesn't make me right since none of us can tell the future...but it's certainly my opinion.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I don't know him at all. But if you watch the game, how it's played, see how he goes about it you'll know that it's an accurate assessment. Again, this comes from years of experience of watching the game and speaking w/ players involved in the game. Certainly doesn't make me right since none of us can tell the future...but it's certainly my opinion.

I'm just wondering why you seem so sure that he can't change. We can afford to wait on him; he isn't taking away any time from someone with more ability.

[3M9]

It's just my opinion, just like everyone else has theirs. I think attitude and effort are extremely important given that tools are similar between most players. Granted, Rowell has BIG time power. But he makes no effort to get better. I just read Stocky's evaluation and his comment that Rowell has improved so much. Not sure what he's looking at, but Rowell WAS drafted on his watch. If I couldn't catch a fly ball, I would be out every day for early work. I'd not let a single pitcher come into RF during BP so I could work on tracking fly balls off the bat. I'd actually make an adjustment in my swing mechanics. But Rowell literally does NONE of this. If you looked at video of his swing last year and this year - it's the SAME swing. He has more errors in RF, I don't care that he's "new to the position", than ALL the other OF's COMBINED. Henson has a couple "OF" errors...but he also actually attempts to catch everything that's hit his way. Not sure how Rowell can have so many errors when all he does is wait for a ball to stop rolling and then pick it up.

As for Rowell not holding back anyone else w/ his "talent"...you're assuming that because Rowell was drafted #1 he has all this "talent". Even if you agree he's talented, his impact on other professional ballplayers is extended...pitchers are impacted, you could say that Welty is impacted...it's all connected. And, it's just my opinion.

[allstar1579]

It's just my opinion, just like everyone else has theirs. I think attitude and effort are extremely important given that tools are similar between most players. Granted, Rowell has BIG time power. But he makes no effort to get better. I just read Stocky's evaluation and his comment that Rowell has improved so much. Not sure what he's looking at, but Rowell WAS drafted on his watch. If I couldn't catch a fly ball, I would be out every day for early work. I'd not let a single pitcher come into RF during BP so I could work on tracking fly balls off the bat. I'd actually make an adjustment in my swing mechanics. But Rowell literally does NONE of this. If you looked at video of his swing last year and this year - it's the SAME swing. He has more errors in RF, I don't care that he's "new to the position", than ALL the other OF's COMBINED. Henson has a couple "OF" errors...but he also actually attempts to catch everything that's hit his way. Not sure how Rowell can have so many errors when all he does is wait for a ball to stop rolling and then pick it up.

As for Rowell not holding back anyone else w/ his "talent"...you're assuming that because Rowell was drafted #1 he has all this "talent". Even if you agree he's talented, his impact on other professional ballplayers is extended...pitchers are impacted, you could say that Welty is impacted...it's all connected. And, it's just my opinion.

I agree that character and "coachability" are two very important and underrated tools when drafting a player, and if you look at the drafts since BR you'll see two shining examples of that. Matusz and Hobgood are two of the nicest, most down to earth guys who absolutely love the game (from first hand knowledge and from what I hear).

[3M9]

Exactly...Wieters and Matusz are liked by virtually ALL their teammates! They are guys that are "leaders" (granted, college guys, not HS guys). Hobgood seems to be a "good" teammate as well.

There are a LOT of quality young men in the organization right now. Some of them will be big league guys. Some will not. It happens. However, in my opinion, Rowell and Adams are simply two that don't get it. Doesn't mean they won't ever figure it out, but often a person isn't likely to change how they approach things suddenly at 21 or 22. I personally believe it comes down to one of five things w/ the two of them:

1) their talent is overrated and was when they were drafted

2) they don't have any desire to learn, make adjustments, get better

3) they aren't capable of learning, making adjustments, get better

4) O's don't have the correct people in place to "teach"

5) combination of any of the above

[allstar1579]

Exactly...Wieters and Matusz are liked by virtually ALL their teammates! They are guys that are "leaders" (granted, college guys, not HS guys). Hobgood seems to be a "good" teammate as well.

There are a LOT of quality young men in the organization right now. Some of them will be big league guys. Some will not. It happens. However, in my opinion, Rowell and Adams are simply two that don't get it. Doesn't mean they won't ever figure it out, but often a person isn't likely to change how they approach things suddenly at 21 or 22. I personally believe it comes down to one of five things w/ the two of them:

1) their talent is overrated and was when they were drafted

2) they don't have any desire to learn, make adjustments, get better

3) they aren't capable of learning, making adjustments, get better

4) O's don't have the correct people in place to "teach"

5) combination of any of the above

Yeah, I mean 2 + 2 and you are starting to see things. They definitely had a premium on the fact that Hobgood was such a good kid this year, and if you talk to Matusz for 10 minutes you can't help but love the kid. I think kinda like when Joe Gibbs came back to the Redskins he put a premium on character above other traits you are starting to see that in Baltimore. I haven't met some of the other recent picks yet to know more, but I know Joseph is in that mold too, I sense a trend.

[bej6789]

I'm just wondering why you seem so sure that he can't change. We can afford to wait on him; he isn't taking away any time from someone with more ability.

Exactly... Yeah, it does suck that Lincecum is dominating at the big league level... but that's life. That's why the draft is awesome. That being said, how old is Rowell again? 21 years old? Yeah, plenty of time left before this ship sails. For all I care, he can spend the next 3 years working out his demons at the minor league level. A 24 year old rookie isn't farfetched, and sometimes these players need to hit rock bottom before they can start to get better. The high school scenario goes both ways -- you can say that the player is more mature, but you can also say that you have more years to correct flaws.

It's hard to argue that Rowell isn't a bust up until now, but if he comes up in 3 years at age 24 and hits 25 HR -- I don't really care who was drafted after him.

[howie14]

A "what happened to him?" article on Rowell.

[mdterpsrule]

A "what happened to him?" article on Rowell.

Links not working for me, but this one worked: http://carrollcountytimes.com/articles/2009/08/26/sports/4_orioles_rowell.txt

But good article.

[3M9]

Interesting article. Not sure what the one person is looking at when you watch Rowell swing the bat. He does NOT take huge cuts on every swing. Part of the rap on him is that he is too passive in his swing. A HUGE HOLE in his swing is the biggest problem, not how hard he swings.

If you watch him in BP you can tell why there is such hope...the ball JUMPS off of his bat. And he hits TOWERING HR's (in BP). He simply has to fix his swing if he wants to become a better hitter.

[Rufus]

As for Rowell not holding back anyone else w/ his "talent"...you're assuming that because Rowell was drafted #1 he has all this "talent".

YES. The position a player is drafted is nothing more than an assessment of how good he will be in the future based on how good he is at the time, given the information available to you (stats, scouting...).

Given the information available to any front office now, would Rowell have been drafted anywhere near the first round? Of course not. Had Rowell had a poor senior season in HS, would he have been drafted in the first round? Of course he wouldn't. You can't treat a player's talent as a static figure.

If you expect former first-rounders to improve purely based on where they were drafted a few year ago (or more), would you also expect late-round picks having success to start sucking because they don't have as much "talent"?

What about players who are drafted multiple times in drastically different spots? Has their talent level risen/fallen that much? Or is there simply more information on which to base their evaluation?

[Behemoth Jones]

I'm more interested in a different type of Rowell hindsight -- would he have developed better if the Orioles had not promoted him so aggressively? He put up a 761 OPS at Delmarva in 2007, which is pretty respectable but hardly dominant. In 2008 at Frederick, at a very young age for the league, he couldn't crack 700. Would a slower promotion schedule have helped him adapt better to the tougher pitching? Would a 2008 demotion back to Delmarva have helped him reestablish himself, and given him... well something that he could build on?

I'm not asking this as a means of bashing the organization, but as a means of learning what we can do with some newer prospects. I look now at some of our players who have somewhat disappointed at Delmarva this year -- Hoes, Avery, Hudson -- and wondering if there are lessons here. Was any consideration given to moving one or more of them to Aberdeen (or even Bluefield) after the short seasons started? Where do we put them next year?