Number Nine prospect LHP Cameron Coffey

[BringBackMagic]

But isn't this the case with every prospect? None of the guys besides Matusz and Mickolio have any major league time so they are all projection. I understand the concern, and I agree with the premise that the system took a hit with so many players that graduated, but at some point you have rank those projection "ceiling" guys.

BTW, I disagree on your assessment that Avery would be anywhere close to the number one guy based off pure ceiling. I'm not even sure he'd be in the top ten.

Tony, I'm not trying to be rude, but how can you say that? The only reason for drafting Avery was his high ceiling. If somebody looked at his numbers in a complete vacuum, unaware of who he was or any of his background, he'd be viewed as an organizational player. The only thing Xavier Avery has going for him is his tools and potential ie ceiling. If you don't think he has one of the highest ceilings in our system, then you are essentially writing him off as a wasted pick right now.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, I'm not trying to be rude, but how can you say that? The only reason for drafting Avery was his high ceiling. If somebody looked at his numbers in a complete vacuum, unaware of who he was or any of his background, he'd be viewed as an organizational player. The only thing Xavier Avery has going for him is his tools and potential ie ceiling. If you don't think he has one of the highest ceilings in our system, then you are essentially writing him off as a wasted pick right now.

I don't think you are being rude at all and I enjoy the conversation. All I will say on Avery is that I'm not as high on him as the Orioles are.

[Three Run Homer]

I don't think you are being rude at all and I enjoy the conversation. All I will say on Avery is that I'm not as high on him as the Orioles are.

Apparently not enough people have read your comments on Avery in this thread...he's getting lots of support as the #8 prospect!

[Enjoy Terror]

If Avery's ceiling is supposedly Carl Crawford, why wouldn't Avery be a highly touted prospect? Right now Coffey has a high ceiling, but he's never thrown a pitch for us and is coming off an arm injury. What kind of pitcher is he projecting to be?

[Tony-OH]

If Avery's ceiling is supposedly Carl Crawford, why wouldn't Avery be a highly touted prospect? Right now Coffey has a high ceiling, but he's never thrown a pitch for us and is coming off an arm injury. What kind of pitcher is he projecting to be?

Go look up Carl Crawford's stats at 19 and then look at Avery.

As for Coffey, it's too early to tell because we don't know anything about his ability to go deep into a game or how his breaking stuff will come around. If everything hits, he could be a top of the rotation kind of guy.

[LookinUp]

I was really hoping that Coffey would be the guy here, mostly for the exact reason that you picked him. I wanted to hear that we have an incredibly high-ceiling lefty in the system. We do...awesome.

[Stotle]

The only question/concern I have with the ranking is that it seems like Bundy 1) had a more impressive prep resume (fastball velo for a much longer stretch of time and far better breaking ball with admittedly inferior change-up), 2) had a less serious injury (knee rather than elbow), and 3) has a year of rehab and pro experience under his belt. I'm all for ceiling and potential, but I think I'd personally be more comfortable rating Bundy up here than I would be rating Coffey above some other kids (Bundy included, assuming he's rated lower).

[Enjoy Terror]

Go look up Carl Crawford's stats at 19 and then look at Avery.

As for Coffey, it's too early to tell because we don't know anything about his ability to go deep into a game or how his breaking stuff will come around. If everything hits, he could be a top of the rotation kind of guy.

I'm confused.

With Avery it's "compare his stats to x-player's stats and forget about his ceiling".

With Coffey it's "stats? who needs those? his ceiling is huge!"

[Tony-OH]

I'm confused.

With Avery it's "compare his stats to x-player's stats and forget about his ceiling".

With Coffey it's "stats? who needs those? his ceiling is huge!"

Once you have some stats in front of you and can compare them to similar players of the past you get a better idea of whether that player's tools will play out. Avery is far from a bust yet, but his year did nothing to impress me regardless of his age.

[Tony-OH]

The only question/concern I have with the ranking is that it seems like Bundy 1) had a more impressive prep resume (fastball velo for a much longer stretch of time and far better breaking ball with admittedly inferior change-up), 2) had a less serious injury (knee rather than elbow), and 3) has a year of rehab and pro experience under his belt. I'm all for ceiling and potential, but I think I'd personally be more comfortable rating Bundy up here than I would be rating Coffey above some other kids (Bundy included, assuming he's rated lower).

I'm not sure I understand. Are you more concerned with Bundy not being nine this year or that Coffey is just too high because of his unknowns?

[McLovin]

Go look up Carl Crawford's stats at 19 and then look at Avery.

Oh I agree wholeheartedly there. And after you look up Crawford's age 19 season, look up Darnel McDonald's.

[crawdad]

Oh I agree wholeheartedly there. And after you look up Crawford's age 19 season, look up Darnel McDonald's.

Although advanced for the league, I find it slightly humorous that Crawford age 19 season was his least productive one in the minors. He probably would have been an 825-850 OPS guy in low A. Of course, comparing players just by age is fraught with error especially in the late teens because players come into a system with different experiences levels.

To be clear . . . I am not saying Avery is Carl Crawford. Does he have a chance to reach that level? Sure. I don't think he is in the same mold though. I think the comparisons are largely due to his speed and skin color. I find it peculiar how throughout baseball, comps are segregated. Oh well. Tangential thought there.

[Stotle]

I'm not sure I understand. Are you more concerned with Bundy not being nine this year or that Coffey is just too high because of his unknowns?

I was assuming Bundy is rated lower. Though I understand he could certainly be ranked higher, he isn't an option at 8 and I'm not sure you'll have him in th 5-7 range.

I guess to answer your question, I am concerned with Coffey being ranked at 9 considering the unknowns, particularly in the context of Bundy having fewer unknowns, comparable stuff and a lengthier track record at the prep and pro ranks.

I don't have any strong feelings about whether or not Bundy should be up here, but I think he's an appropriate comparison piece to Coffey.

[ScottieBaseball]

Can't agree with a pitcher who's never set foot on a professional mound.

Tony's explained how we ranked these guys and all the things that factored in. Professional experience was one of the factors that we considered but it didn't make or break a guy's rank. Based on videos, scouting reports, and what Tony heard from Jordan, we could look foolish for ranking him so low when it's all said and done.

[Enjoy Terror]

I guess the other question I'd like to know: Based off of scouting reports prior to either playing a game for the Orioles, who had the higher ceiling at the time; Avery or Coffey?