Number Nine prospect LHP Cameron Coffey

[Stotle]

I guess the other question I'd like to know: Based off of scouting reports prior to either playing a game for the Orioles, who had the higher ceiling at the time; Avery or Coffey?

Not to speak for anyone on the OH staff, but it's incredibly difficult to compare ceilings across HS pitchers and position players, particularly when you are talking about an injured pitcher and an unrefined outfielder. As it is, people can argue about whether a toolsy AA OF is more or less valuable than a good AA starting pitcher. It's just a very difficult proposition, and one to which usually there is no satisfactory, conclusive declaration.

[hoosiers]

The Crawford comp is to show people the type of player that Avery could become - a disruptive baserunner who plays superior defense - in this way, it's a good comp.

That expectations are developed based on the above that Avery will track Crawford's minor league performance also make this a bad comp.

Avery (and Hoes) made a massive jump in competition and performed as well or better statistically compared to last year - especially when one throws out the terrible start in April.

Avery is still very raw, still has a lot to learn and still retains a tremendous toolbox. IMO, his progress last year was fine - not great or poor, but fine, and worthy of the 8 spot.

[Stotle]

Tony's explained how we ranked these guys and all the things that factored in. Professional experience was one of the factors that we considered but it didn't make or break a guy's rank. Based on videos, scouting reports, and what Tony heard from Jordan, we could look foolish for ranking him so low when it's all said and done.

I understand what you're driving at, Scottie, but this certainly isn't the case. The whole point of your exercise is to give a snapshot of where things sit right now. Let's say Coffey turns into Johan Santana. That wouldn't make you right for ranking him #1 in the Orioles system right now, based on the info currently available to you. But, again, I understand you're just pointing out how high Jordan and the O's are on the kid.

[Tony-OH]

I was assuming Bundy is rated lower. Though I understand he could certainly be ranked higher, he isn't an option at 8 and I'm not sure you'll have him in th 5-7 range.

I guess to answer your question, I am concerned with Coffey being ranked at 9 considering the unknowns, particularly in the context of Bundy having fewer unknowns, comparable stuff and a lengthier track record at the prep and pro ranks.

I don't have any strong feelings about whether or not Bundy should be up here, but I think he's an appropriate comparison piece to Coffey.

Ok, fair enough. Bundy took a huge step back this year due to the shape he showed up in, a reported lack of work ethic and attitude. His stuff took a step back as well. This is one of the great concerns about ranking these guys so high but in the end, Coffey's work ethic and intelligence and body type were all big factors for me.

[Enjoy Terror]

I understand what you're driving at, Scottie, but this certainly isn't the case. The whole point of your exercise is to give a snapshot of where things sit right now. Let's say Coffey turns into Johan Santana. That wouldn't make you right for ranking him #1 in the Orioles system right now, based on the info currently available to you. But, again, I understand you're just pointing out how high Jordan and the O's are on the kid.

That's typically the point of prospect ranking exercises, but not necessarily this one. Particularly not this one. I'm not sure Coffey will be ranked on any other reputable sources top ten for the Orioles, and the only reason that can really be pointed to is rubrick and criteria, not poor ranking on the OH staff's part. Tony has weighed potential in absence of production very heavily, which isn't wrong... just a different way of looking at things.

[BringBackMagic]

Tony's explained how we ranked these guys and all the things that factored in. Professional experience was one of the factors that we considered but it didn't make or break a guy's rank. Based on videos, scouting reports, and what Tony heard from Jordan, we could look foolish for ranking him so low when it's all said and done.

This is a "foolish" statement. You shouldn't rank players on how foolish you may look if you turn out to be wrong. I remember years ago reading about Richard Stahl, Darnell McDonald and the pantheon of Orioles draft picks that busted along the way.

IMO, you look MORE foolish ranking players higher and being wrong because you raise expectations only to see them fall flat. It's much safer to project them lower and have them exceed expectations.

I really support Stotle's argument against Coffey and comp to Bundy. Both players have similar skill sets with Coffey being LH and Bundy RH. Coffey has an arm injury, which is more serious than Bundy's leg injury. Bundy has a year of spotted success on the pro level while in Tony's write-up we may not even see what Coffey can do until 2011. Given this information, Bundy wasn't nearly as highly pumped as Coffey is being here. IIRC, Bundy has a strong curve, I don't know what it's rated, to go along with his fastball, while Coffey is here mostly for his power arm and some feel for a change.

I really hope that Coffey lives up to the hype that has been created by placing him this high on the rankings all things considering. I loved the pick, I loved that Jordan ponied up the money to sign him and bring him into the system. It is just really concerning that our No. 9 prospect may not be able to pitch a complete season for two years.

[crawdad]

That's typically the point of prospect ranking exercises, but not necessarily this one. Particularly not this one. I'm not sure Coffey will be ranked on any other reputable sources top ten for the Orioles, and the only reason that can really be pointed to is rubrick and criteria, not poor ranking on the OH staff's part. Tony has weighed potential in absence of production very heavily, which isn't wrong... just a different way of looking at things.

How is this one different from the others?

Tony is making value judgements based on the projection and potential of these prospects. I'm not sure how that perspective is different from other trade rankings.

[Enjoy Terror]

How is this one different from the others?

Tony is making value judgements based on the projection and potential of these prospects. I'm not sure how that perspective is different from other trade rankings.

IMO Tony has his foot down a little harder on the potential/ceiling pedal moreso than other outlets, and we're going to see more newly drafted guys higher in the rankings as a result. I'm not complaining or criticizing. I just think it's different.

[crawdad]

IMO Tony has his foot down a little harder on the potential/ceiling pedal moreso than other outlets, and we're going to see more newly drafted guys higher in the rankings as a result. I'm not complaining or criticizing. I just think it's different.

Oh, I am not reading it as a complaint or a criticism. Leaning on potential is certainly a valid adjustment to any criteria. I think others do something similar though. From what I hear, I think Ohlman may be showing up around this range (9-15), but have heard less enthusiasm for Coffey. He will probably have to come out pretty hard for trade journals to respect him.

[Enjoy Terror]

I am often wrong. I'm awfully dedicated though!

[Stotle]

Oh, I am not reading it as a complaint or a criticism. Leaning on potential is certainly a valid adjustment to any criteria. I think others do something similar though. From what I hear, I think Ohlman may be showing up around this range (9-15), but have heard less enthusiasm for Coffey. He will probably have to come out pretty hard for trade journals to respect him.

Yeah, the journals, I imagine, will be less likely to afford Coffey the benefit of the doubt since his breakout didn't come until the beginning of his senior year, quickly ending with his surgery. Not to say he isn't a legit talent -- just that there isn't much to go on, yet, and he has yet to show the ability to maintain his new stuff over any significant amount of time, as of yet.

[QBsILLEST1]

This is a "foolish" statement. You shouldn't rank players on how foolish you may look if you turn out to be wrong. I remember years ago reading about Richard Stahl, Darnell McDonald and the pantheon of Orioles draft picks that busted along the way.

IMO, you look MORE foolish ranking players higher and being wrong because you raise expectations only to see them fall flat. It's much safer to project them lower and have them exceed expectations.

I really support Stotle's argument against Coffey and comp to Bundy. Both players have similar skill sets with Coffey being LH and Bundy RH. Coffey has an arm injury, which is more serious than Bundy's leg injury. Bundy has a year of spotted success on the pro level while in Tony's write-up we may not even see what Coffey can do until 2011. Given this information, Bundy wasn't nearly as highly pumped as Coffey is being here. IIRC, Bundy has a strong curve, I don't know what it's rated, to go along with his fastball, while Coffey is here mostly for his power arm and some feel for a change.

I really hope that Coffey lives up to the hype that has been created by placing him this high on the rankings all things considering. I loved the pick, I loved that Jordan ponied up the money to sign him and bring him into the system. It is just really concerning that our No. 9 prospect may not be able to pitch a complete season for two years.

First off, with TJ surgery, he will be back next year, hes already throwing as it is. But, the Bundy comparison here is not valid. Wheen Bundy was drafted, he was said to have a mid 90 fastball with a plus curve, he had no projection left he was maxed out. That to me is comparable to Coffey, sure, but, when he showed up out of shape for ST and lost a few MPH on the fast ball, that hurt his stock. Sure he could bounce back and I actually expect him to, but comparing Coffey 09 to Bundy 09, its not the same as comparing Coffey to Bundy when Bundy was drafted.

And I believe in Tony's write up, he staed that Coffey's changeup is above average which is a HUGE difference between that and having a feel for a changeup. He has a feel for the slider, but an above average changeup that projects to be plus.

Now, Im not saying I agree with Coffey being rated at #9, I dont disagree either. The situation we have here with all these unproven high ceiling guys, its hard to come up with a justifiable list. Based off of Tony's criteria, this is who he feels belongs here, and I myself based off of Tony's criteria agree. My own prospect list would be different but thats because I have a different criteria like just about all of us do.....

[Tony-OH]

The Crawford comp is to show people the type of player that Avery could become - a disruptive baserunner who plays superior defense - in this way, it's a good comp.

That expectations are developed based on the above that Avery will track Crawford's minor league performance also make this a bad comp.

Avery (and Hoes) made a massive jump in competition and performed as well or better statistically compared to last year - especially when one throws out the terrible start in April.

Avery is still very raw, still has a lot to learn and still retains a tremendous toolbox. IMO, his progress last year was fine - not great or poor, but fine, and worthy of the 8 spot.

Here's my major concern. Go look up Darnell McDonald, Luis Matos, Gary Cates and Mikiel Diaz and tell me what they have in common. I'll save you time, they all out hit both Avery and Hoes at Delmarva at the age of 19.

[LookinUp]

I really support Stotle's argument against Coffey and comp to Bundy. Both players have similar skill sets with Coffey being LH and Bundy RH. Coffey has an arm injury, which is more serious than Bundy's leg injury. Bundy has a year of spotted success on the pro level while in Tony's write-up we may not even see what Coffey can do until 2011.Given this information, Bundy wasn't nearly as highly pumped as Coffey is being here. IIRC, Bundy has a strong curve, I don't know what it's rated, to go along with his fastball, while Coffey is here mostly for his power arm and some feel for a change.

See Tony's last post in this thread. He gave two pretty concrete reasons that Bundy's not up here with Coffey...work ethic and stuff. Hopefully that changes next year, but it's a major red flag.

I really hope that Coffey lives up to the hype that has been created by placing him this high on the rankings all things considering. I loved the pick, I loved that Jordan ponied up the money to sign him and bring him into the system. It is just really concerning that our No. 9 prospect may not be able to pitch a complete season for two years.

Tony didn't say that. He said that Coffey will be ready at the start of this year. I think he implied that Coffey will be an instructional league/short season guy as opposed to a full season Delmarva guy like Hobgood. That's all (I think).

[ScottieBaseball]

This is a "foolish" statement. You shouldn't rank players on how foolish you may look if you turn out to be wrong. I remember years ago reading about Richard Stahl, Darnell McDonald and the pantheon of Orioles draft picks that busted along the way.

IMO, you look MORE foolish ranking players higher and being wrong because you raise expectations only to see them fall flat. It's much safer to project them lower and have them exceed expectations.

I really support Stotle's argument against Coffey and comp to Bundy. Both players have similar skill sets with Coffey being LH and Bundy RH. Coffey has an arm injury, which is more serious than Bundy's leg injury. Bundy has a year of spotted success on the pro level while in Tony's write-up we may not even see what Coffey can do until 2011. Given this information, Bundy wasn't nearly as highly pumped as Coffey is being here. IIRC, Bundy has a strong curve, I don't know what it's rated, to go along with his fastball, while Coffey is here mostly for his power arm and some feel for a change.

I really hope that Coffey lives up to the hype that has been created by placing him this high on the rankings all things considering. I loved the pick, I loved that Jordan ponied up the money to sign him and bring him into the system. It is just really concerning that our No. 9 prospect may not be able to pitch a complete season for two years.

Ugh...we didn't rank players on how foolish we might look if we turn out to be wrong. I was just saying it was a possibility.

Whether it's too high or too low, we think we've got him right where he belongs.

I see where you're coming from with Bundy, but with conditioning and work ethic popping up as issues, some red flags popped up. Coffey is tackling his rehab head-on, has an aggressive plan to get back on the mound, etc. Dedicated is an understatement. It sounds almost like Coffey's the anti-Bundy.