Tony-OH

Although his first full professional season was delayed by a spring training hamstring injury, the former 1st round pick ended his year on a high note with a great AFL season and ending up as the Orioles #10 prospect. Heston Kjerstad Pos: OF Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2022 Level: A/A+ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 30/45 Game Power: 30/60 Raw Power: 65/65 Run: 45/45 Defense: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: Starting right fielder Ceiling: 1st Division Starting right fielder Stats What we know: The Orioles 1st pick (2nd overall) in the 2020 finally made it to the field after battling complications from Myocarditis and then a hamstring injury this past spring. Made his professional debut on June 10th with Delmarva in the Carolina League and immediately destroyed the young pitching in the league slashing .463/.551/.650/1.201 in 98 PAs in 22 games. Despite the impressive numbers, he was not driving the ball much and hitting the ball on the ground too much (53.1 GB%) while hitting just two home runs. He was also jumping on a lot of fastballs early in the count so the Orioles sent him to Aberdeen (High-A, Sally League) where he immediately found trouble with offspeed pitches. He has plenty of bat speed to get to upper velocity, but seemed to have some trouble picking up spin and changeups. Most of his power this season went to the opposite field. Despite some of the struggles (23.6% K rate) and the lack of power (.129 ISO/3 HRs in 186 PAs) in Aberdeen, his numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt since several Aberdeen hitters, including Colton Cowser and Connor Norby, struggled there and then hit well in AA. Trying to give him some more PAs, the Orioles sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he slashed .357/.385/.622/1.007 in 104 PAs with 5 home runs. Although the pitching quality was down, and the AFL is typically a hitter’s league, he finally showed his power potential when he started turning on some balls for home runs. He was even selected to be part of the home run derby, coming in second. While he does hit righties a bit better than lefties, he doesn’t have a huge platoon difference. Defensively, Kjerstad is fair at best out in right field where he catches everything hit to him, but he looks tentative at times with jumps and doesn’t have the footspeed to make up for the below average jumps. He’s got an average arm that can play in RF, but his throws can be inconsistent. What we don’t know: Kjerstad started to pull the ball for power in the AFL after hitting most of home runs to left and left-center this year. Can he get the Bowie bump like Cowser and Norby? With a full offseason to get stronger, will next year be a break out year where his talent can shine through? Will he be able to adjust to upper level offspeed pitching? He’s only fair in RF defensively, so we he get better with more experience? What we think: It was an up and down year for Kjerstad, but his AFL work ends the year on a positive note. We’ll have a better idea of what kind of player he may become after next season. He should start the year in Bowie (AA) and if he can put up some good power numbers next year there and end up with 200 PAs in AAA, he could be option for the Orioles by 2024 in RF. The real question is what is his ceiling? It’s still tough to know because of all the injuries, but there is some pop in that bat. If he starts to tap into that more consistently, and can improve that hit tool as he moves up, he’s got a chance to be solid everyday RFer on a 1st Division team. https://orioleshangout.com/2022-10-prospect-heston-kjerstad-rf/ 2022 Highlights

I could build a case for three players to be #1.

Why would it not make logical sense? I've always said the power rankings are not an official prospect list. I haven't talked to people or done my full analysis so guys can move around a bit. Now, I doubt a guy is going to move ten spots, but yeah, guys can move around a bit as I put everything together.

I still talk to people inside and outside the organization.

I know most of you know this but remember, the rankings are based on statistics, conversations with scouts and other observers, and my own video scouting and analysis. The final rankings are determined by asking, if I could only have one player in my system, regardless of the status of my big league team or the rest of the organization's prospects, who would I take. I take everything into consideration including performance, age vs level, injury history, distance from big leagues, and make up of player.

Gunnar is eligible, Stowers is not because he exceeded his rookie status with days on the 26man roster.

Who are the Orioles 2022 #9 and #10 Prospects

Good little scrappy hitter and player. Good luck to him in his next endeavor!

As for Diaz, he just never developed the ability to have a plan at the plate. His tools had degraded over the years as well and while he would show flashes, he clearly never developed the ability to stay healthy and be consistent. He's a guy that probably needs a fresh start, but I just wasn't impressed over the last 2-3 years to have any concern over losing him.

Never saw that velocity. He was 91-93, when I watched him with very mediocre offspeed pitches. If he was mid to high 90s I'm pretty sure the Orioles would have added him to the 40-man.

Some Cameron highlights and a fielding lowlight for 2022. https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/daz-cameron-highlights

This is a pretty solid claim though. I do agree that Elias may try to sneak him through closer to the Rule 5 draft, but he's a good backup plan to McKenna as a 4th outfielder.

Bencosme has the athletic tools to play SS, but he has a funky sometimes side arm throwing motion that suggest staying at SS could be a problem. 2B might be his best position longterm, but I think they will play him at all three infield position for awhile.

I think we'll see Jackson in Delmarva mainly playing SS, and Young in Aberdeen playing SS to start off 2023. Bencosme will get some PAs at SS, but most will be at 2B and some 3B at Aberdeen. If Jackson is as good as everyone seem to think, he won't be at Delmarva long.

Well let's take a look: Name Age/2023 Barl% EV xwOBA Hardhit% K% B% Sprint McKenna 26 9.6 86.7 .267 30.1 32.0 6.4 95.4% Cameron 26 9.1 90.4 .303 43.2 28.6 7.1 77.8% OOA feetcover arm McKenna 3 34.1 89.1 Cameron -1 34.2 87.4 In just 23 PAs (SSS) Cameron slashed .300/.391/.400/.791 against lefties last year and .252/.333/.370/.703 in 144 PAs last year. McKenna slashed .270/.333/.460/.794 in 63 PAs against lefties last year. It's look to me that Cameron gets the edge in hitting potential a bit with the higher EVs Hardhit% and xwOBA being higher. McKenna gets the edge though on defense with the better OOA and arm. Either way, Cameron looks to be a deeent 4th/5th outfielder though I'd take McKenna over him because you can use McKenna late in games for defense or pinch running.

At first glance, looks like the right-handed hitting, outfielder version of Rio Ruiz. A failed Elias draft pick from his days in Houston available because everybody else has figured out he's not very good.

It would be very surprising since that's usually set up for veterans and if Elias doesn't get at least one legitimate #1 starter this offseason he failed.

I don't have an issue with Gallagher being DFA'd honestly. While I do think he's the best of the current options, we can hope that Elias and his staff has better alternatives in mind whether through trade of FA. I do think Handley is the kind of guy that could get selected since his defense is major league ready.

Trimble is interesting in that we really don't know what the Orioles have him. I don't think he was ever right since he's been in the organization, at least until the end of this season due to injuries. Saying that, he's not a big guy and he's shown zero power as a pro and while he will start 2023 at 22 years old, he'll play most of the season at 23 so he really needs to have a breakout year next year. To me, he's a left-handed hitting version of John Rhodes with less pop and a little less plate discipline.

I just think a smart GM with a limited leadership team would prioritize their time with bigger things then trying to get exclusive rights to talk with potential backup catchers. I do agree with you that this is not a big deal overall, and I'm certainly not suggesting Gallagher is the answer to anything, I just think all of this stuff is a waste of time when these guys are all available in the offseason for minor league contracts with spring training invites. Saying that, Kolozsvary must be a world class defender behind the plate to be the last guy standing in the great backup catcher market cornering effort by the Orioles FO.

What was the use of this claim then? By claiming a guy and then DFAing them, they are just going to elect free agency because they're pissed you dropped them off the 40-man roster. I mean yeah, the AAA catcher scene was banged up at the time of the claim, but honestly, they should have just pushed Maverick Handley up instead of claiming a guy they weren't intending on competing for the backup catcher's job next year. This whole claim a bunch of guys and then DFA them makes little sense. Thank God they shored up the services of a 33-year old catcher who can't hit AAA pitching and is not that great of a defender (this is sarcasm in case you didn't know). Of cure he acepte their assignment because he's just thrilled anyone would offer him a split contract at this point in his career with his skill set. While I think this front office understands what the computer programs tell them, I'm not so sure they get human nature very well.

You're welcome. I honestly wondered myself so I started some research. I love doing that kind of stuff.

I've heard Watson mentioned by scouts in the past but when I watched him, I just don't see the outpitch for him. Sure, he can run it up there to 96, but I don't see a ton of swing and miss and he gets barreled up too much for me when he misses. I mean, could he turn into a 6th inning or long guy on a 2nd Division team, sure, but I can say that about a lot of guys. As for the award, it really was a battle or attrition for the pitchers award once Grayson went down with injury. I think Justin Armbruester probably deserved it more and he's the better prospect. but of the guys who throw 95 IP or more, it probably did come down to Watson or Armbruester so they went with the guy with the lower ERZ even though Armbruester beat him in just about every other category. Lastly, these were power rankings, not prospect rankings. Watson could still end up in the top 40 or so.

The problem with the throw was it was a throw to 2nd base, not 3rd. I would not call his throw a rainbow from RF, but on that play, he should have gunned it to 2B to try and stop that runner for advancing. It was a below average throw for a RFer.

Hays is probably a good comp for Cowser defensively when Hays first came up. He's a guy who can play CF, but you probably didn't want him out there every game. Mullins has much better speed than both Cowser or Hays and he gets better jumps in every direction but coming in, which has always been a bit of an issue for Mullins.