Tony-OH

I do not overreact often do I? I have never questioned the sanity of our GMs until they just added a 33-year old catching with a career .160/.231/.265/.496 slash line as their first 40-man add to the offseason. It's utterly and completely insane. Like, people should question everything they ever do again insane. Like Syd Thrift if he were alive, would question the sanity of this move. There is absolutely no, zero, nada baseball reason to add a 33-year old minor league back up AAA catcher who was hurt most of last year to a the 40-man roster. Since I don't really think Elias is psychologically imbalanced, I'm going to assume there is some unknown reason why this happened, because to improve his ballclub is not one of them.

Bemboom shouldn't be Plan C for the backup next year.

It should be predictable that knowledgeable Orioles fans would question unnecessary 40-man roster moves. Whether Bemboom is replaced ( suspect he will) the question remains why any sane Gm would do this unless it's contractually binding.

This is literally one of the more bizarre things I've ever seen. Why would the Orioles need to think they need protect Bemboom? Why would they even think Bemboom should be a potential option in 2023? This is concerning. Either there is something I don't understand or I'm seriously wondering about the savvy of this front office to evaluate talent for the 40-man. Who knows, maybe it was something in his contract when he signed? I'm missing something because Bemboom will be 33 years old, cant hit, and couldn't stay healthy in 2022.

Had Gunnar gone to college, he would have been drafted this year. Assuming he developed in the same way in college, gotta imagine he'd be 1-1 this year too, so not sure draft pedigree should be taken into consideration. As good as Gunnar is, and he very well is probably the better overall hitting prospect when it's all said and done (afterall he's 3 years younger and look at those EVs_ it's hard to find a catcher who can hit like Adley. Can't really go wrong building around either though and thankfully, we get to build around them both.

Vavra fror me is one of those tweener prospects that could squeeze out a role as a 4th/5th outfielder who can play 2B when needed, or a 2nd division second baseman. The problem with Vavra is most of his value is tied up on his on base/hit tool. He has below average pop but probably more disappointing is that he was only a 45th percental runner at 24-years old (35th percentile for his age). So with below average power, below average speed, and below average defense everywhere but probably left field, where does he fit in on a good team? The biggest surprise defensively is that he actually turned the DP pretty well overall at second base despite the limited arm strength. Still there is a some limited range issues but overall he's probably playable at 2B. The question is, will he hit enough and get to enough extra base hits to be able to stick as a regular there even if ultimately he's going to be a little below average overall at 2B? Could the Orioles start 2023 with at 2B, potentially, but I'd imagine that Westburg or Ortiz would provide better value overall even if Waltimore cuts down on some of their overall pop at right-handed hitters. He's a better bench guy than Nevin or Aguilar ever would be, and he's not the worse guy to have on the bench for late inning PH against right handed relief pitching.

Actually, I think they are very similar out fielders, but Stowers is faster (43rd percentile to Santander's 30th percentile) and three years younger with a lot less experience in a major league right field so there's a better chance he improves more than Santander. They both were quite terrible in LF so RF should be there primary position.

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way: Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors: 1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky. 2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander 3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious) 4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle 5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs. So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively. Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF. So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up. Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

Why go off actual data from statcast through baseball savant when you can just assume MLB Pipeline scouting grades are correct all the time?

Nice job by the team to come out and clap for the fans!

Thanks @SteveA for all your work starting threads with lineups and info. Great job!

Well gentlemen and lady (JustD), it's been a pleasure this year during our game chats!

Some quotes from today: “I don’t want to announce a budget to the agent community or the other 29 teams, but I do continue to view this as an offseason where we’re going to have the flexibility to invest in the major league payroll in a different way than I have done since I’ve been here,” Elias said. “… I feel like this team is officially in the fight in the American League East, and that’s a big achievement.” “It’s not something obvious, that I think we’re going to target a certain position,” Elias said. “I think we’re going to look at any and all ways to improve our chances of making the playoffs within the budget that we’re going to be working with, and that’s going to depend on what the market gives us, and I think there are a number of areas where we could supplement this team, so I don’t have a specific prediction about which position any major league acquisitions are going to going to come in.” Elias noted that the Orioles have “very interesting internal candidates for almost every single job,” complicating their offseason addition-making. “I think we’re going to have to [part with prospects] if we’re going to import players for trade,” Elias said. “I don’t know that we’re going to get it done without sending prospects. I really like the players that we’ve been drafting and developing or trading for, but this is part of the business, and that’s why you amass such depth in your organization. There’s a 40-man roster, there’s a Rule 5 draft, you can’t keep everybody, and you also can’t play everybody. “We just want to keep stacking good players and good drafts and good international development so that we’re able to use our players, because we don’t have the same amount of money as the [New York] Yankees, you know? There’s going to be times when our richness in players is going to be what we have to lean into in order to win out here.”

I know some called Joey Ortiz your new pet, but this time, you are picking the right guy. lol The more I watched Joey Ortiz this year the more he impressed me in all aspect of his game. He's going to be a good one and while he's got everyday player written all over him, his floor is pretty high as a outstanding utility guy.

My take on that comment is that he will get an opportunity to compete for a starting rotation spot next spring. If he's fully healthy, I believe he will be in the rotation to start the year.

I haven't really looked at the list yet of players who need to be protected, so I can't say whether I'd protect him or not. If they can sign Gallagher to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, then I would not be too worried about protecting Handley.

I think he's a guy who protect if you have a spot, but if you need one for a better player, then I'd be ok with him being dropped off. There's a lot more guys who can go before him. His .317 wOBA (10th best on the team) is just a little over major league average of .310 and that was after a pretty bad second half where as Frobby pointed out, he may have just worn down. He's a decent 6th inning guy or the guy you bring in for two when you are up or down by 3 or more. If you can find something better then he can be replaced, but he's not a guy I'd focus on getting rid of this season. There have been flashes a brilliance with, but he's coming up on 30-years old which again, makes him a low end bubble guy for me.

If Diaz is not DFA'd I'd be shocked. I suppose he could be a throw in player in some deal, but if he's on the 40-man roster when the Rule 5 draft occurs I'll be shocked. He's a guy who can't stay healthy and probably needs a change of scenery and even then, the hit tool have not improved and he still has very little plan at the plate.

Boy did Severino not come close to that 205 innings mark very often! lol True Roberts has improved a bit with his receiving and i have no idea how either of them frame balls though from watching, seems like Handley is pretty good and stealing strikes though AA umpires can be wildly inconsistent so that's tough to judge. Either way, as I showed, Handley bat should play better overall. For me, Handley is 40 level prospect while Roberts is a 35.

I'll just leave you with this: Roberts 43 passed balls in 1558.1 inning caught (1 every 36 innings) vs Handley 14 PB in 1247 innings caught (1 every 89 innings). Roberts is a good depth guy similar to Austin Wynns who could back up for a bit, but Handley is the superior defensive catcher. Offensively, Handley, strikeout less, walks more, has more power and overall is two years younger. They are not the same. Handley to me is a legitimate backup catcher at the major league level for a long time while Roberts could be more of a breakglass in case of emergency AAA depth piece that could fill in for a bit without killing a team but does nothing good enough to stick long term.

And 36 in Houston, 35 in Colorado, 32 in Anaheim, 31 in Texas and 30 in Milwaukee. Which all makes him a valuable trade piece in my opinion.

So statcast finally put out arm strength data and there are some noteworthy achievements by Orioles. This is how Statcast comes up with their data: Statcast position player arm strength metrics are available beginning with the 2020 season. Given that there is no rulebook definition of "a throw where the player is trying hard," and many non-competitive lobs are captured, we have elected to take the average of the top portion of a player's throws. Since the demands of each position grouping are different, the averages and qualifiers are different as well. 1B -- average of top 1% of throws -- minimum 100 throws to qualify 2B/SS/3B -- average of top 5% of throws -- minimum 75 throws to qualify OF -- average of top 10% of throws -- minimum 50 throws to qualify 1. Austin Hays was one of 13 position players (all Outfielders) to throw 100 MPH of more. He had the 11th hardest throw at 100.6 MPH. His 91.8 MPH average was 28th in the league. 2. Ryan Mckenna had the next hardest throw at 96.3 MPH, good for 47th. 3. Surprisingly, Jorge Mateo's fastest throw was only 91.9 MPH, good for 14th best throw among SS. His 86.9 MPH avg was god for 10th place. 4. At 2B, Rougned Odor's top 88.4 MPH throw was only good for 25th place but his 85 MPH average was good for 10th best among 2B. 5. Despite his great OAA numbers and dWAr, Ramon Urias' 87.3 MPH was only 30th among 3B, and his 82 MPH avg but him 29th, making his arm a bit below average. BTW, his 2021 numbers at SS (max 82.2 MPH was 56th of 58 that qualified and his average of 79.9 was 47th) explaining why the Orioles did not want him at SS any longer. 6. In things that surprise no one, Mountcastle max 77.3 MPH throw is 43rd of 54 who qualified and his 73.4 avg is 40th among 54 giving him a well below average arm for a 1B. 7. Mullins 95.2 MPH was just 33rd in the league but his 86 average was 40th among 54 who qualified in CF. 8. Santander's 91.7 mph best was just 40th best out of 43 that qualified. His 86.8 MPH avg with just 30th best. Here are the numbers for the qualified Orioles (100 throws is the lowest is goes) in 2022: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=&team=110 2021: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?year=2021&minThrows=100&pos=&team=110 2020: (Take these with a grain of salt) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?year=2020&minThrows=100&pos=&team=110

Ah, now that I look back at the title I see he was using WAA vs WAR. Makes more sense now, thanks for the correction. I agree that Mountcastle's performance was certainly below the typical performance of a 1Bman this year. He would certainly be on the trading block for me and I would have both Stowers and Westburg practicing there this off season.

BTW, I'm loving the SwSTr percentages are available in Fan Graphs. I find that stat intriguing for scouting purposes especially without trackman data!

I missed the part about these were my comments so I'm reading through them like, "Damn, this guy sounds like me!" Then I went back and realized you were quoting me! lol I haven't finished my top 30 placements nd have really just begun, but I'm 90% sure Ortiz will end up in the top 10 and perhaps in the top 7. But don't hold me to that.