Big Mac

Baumann unless they are ready to move him to the bullpen. I'd think they want him as emergency starting depth for this year though.

I think the Matt Harvey depth type is a combination of Watkins, Zimmermann and Baumann. I don't view that as a need.

The issue with Mateo is that defensive metrics/value can fluctuate wildly and if he goes from where he was last year to even just above average defensively without any improvement at the plate, he's probably a replacement level player. I wouldn't give him away but I'd be inclined to take what I can get and let someone else take the gamble that the otherworldly defense continues. I think the 3.4 WAR last year will be his career high water mark and probably by a significant margin.

Right, I think Kremer would have to either be injured or absolutely implode in spring training to not earn a rotation spot. And I'm in the camp that expects some significant regression from him this season.

Interesting...I pulled my numbers from bbref.

His Pull% was actually 20.8% last year compared to the league average of 29.1%. Now, based on what I've seen I agree that, especially when he gets into one of his funks, he seems to get very pull happy at times. But overall, the stats indicate he is pretty good at using all fields.

Texas is not built up at all...it's in Arlington halfway between Dallas and Ft. Worth next to Six Flags. They have their "Texas Live!" entertainment venue which has several bars and restaurants in it similar to what they have in Philly, but that's it.

Well, O'Hearn has just been DFA'd already. Claimed Lewin Diaz back per Roch.

Sure, incapable isn't how I would describe it. I do think it is fair to say any significant improvement with the bat is not likely at this point in his career, the sample size of batted ball data is significant at this point. Admittedly without doing the research to back it up, my guess would be that hitters that dramatically improve after 750-800 PAs had either shown some measure of plate discipline or decent underlying batted ball metrics prior to the improvement.

I don't understand the belief by some that Mateo's bat will improve. He now has a large sample size of statcast data that shows very poor batted ball metrics and plate discipline. The short summary of it all is he doesn't walk (12th percentile BB% in '22), chases a lot of pitches (10th percentile in chase rate), doesn't make much contact (12th percentile in whiff %) and when he does it isn't very good contact (12th percentile exit velocity, 13th percentile hard hit %). Mateo has value but I think any illusions of him becoming more than the .650ish OPS guy he has been so far in his career is pretty much a pipe dream.

If we are going to get a past their prime pitcher that can't miss bats I'd rather sign Cueto. Also not interested in signing a player that can only DH unless they can really hit, which Martinez can't at that level anymore.

I have very much had a wait and see type of attitude for this offseason and have withheld judgment until we see how the entire offseason plays out. That being said, I am scratching my head at this one. If we were spending money like the Mets then sure, what's $8MM for a last guy on the bench? Given the severe financial constraints we seem to be operating under, I don't know how this signing makes sense to fill what I don't view as much of a need. @Can_of_corn described it best by calling this inefficient. After this signing I can't see us spending more than another $15MM for 2023 payroll outside of arbitration increases.

No worries, I like the idea. I think my preference would just be to try and get only Gray and limit the prospect capital that we give up. I like Arraez but he won't come cheap and I'd rather obtain starting pitching if we are dipping into the prospect pool.

I would not trade Hall or Westburg straight up for one year of Sonny Gray

Well, he did show some ability to pitch to contact effectively based on things like hard hit % and barrel % so I do think it is fair to say that he is more likely to be able to have success without missing bats than others. That being said, I certainly would not commit a significant amount money or more than one year banking on him repeating that and if his trend on missing bats keeps going this direction he may not be an effective major league pitcher in the near future. A cheap one year deal where we have no problem cutting him quickly if he is getting shelled would be fine as depth move.

His rapidly declining ability to miss bats makes me think it is highly unlikely he can repeat last year. 3rd percentile in whiff %, 8th percentile in K %, 5.8 K/9...I'd bet on him being closer to replacement level than matching that 3.5 WAR in 2023.

You are using Kremer's career ERA of 4.55 rather than the 3.23 ERA he put up last year. I agree with the overall point that they need to do more to upgrade the rotation though.

Gibson has been better than Wacha over the last two seasons by almost any measure.

You don't think pitching with that Phillies defense behind him might cause his ERA to deviate from his FIP a little bit? I don't think he's very good, but he is a useful back-end starter and having him pushes all of those deep depth rotation pieces we don't really want to use back one spot.

So your response to a statistic is just a "he's old and he sucks and he's pretty much always sucked." That basically much sums up that you don't intend on putting much real thought into this one. There just aren't many valid criticisms to this move until you see what else we do.

His FIP over the last two seasons is 4.02.

People are letting last season cloud this comparison. Gibson is a much better pitcher than Lyles. Gibson has 14.1 career WAR and a 4.29 career FIP compared to Lyles -1.4 and 4.68. This is fine for a one year deal to build the rotation depth. Now if this is all we do to address the rotation then yes, people should complain.

Means is not going to be ready by late April. We should go into next season with the assumption that any innings we get from him are a bonus. Also, he is not a free agent until after the 2024 season.

Whether he trades him or not, he has all the incentive in the world to provide a ringing endorsement. What is he going to say? "We don't think the defensive metrics are sustainable and would like to sell high via a trade this offseason, especially given the INF depth we have in the system."

Is Hyde aware that Stowers can actually hit lefties? .982 OPS v. LHP in AAA this year and a .951 v. LHP in 2021 across A+/AA/AAA.