MarCakes21

I know that @Frobbyhas done some analysis on big contracts, but I'm always curious about the long ones. Is $27 mil even going to be a lot in 11 years? Or that will be the average salary for 1-1.5WAR, which maybe even Trea can achieve at 41 as a LF and OBP machcine. Anyone have insight on the back years of non-Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols like contracts? Like Stanton is "only" making 25 mil in the back years of hi contract. He produced 1.2 WAR in 112 games last year. He could easily still be a 2 WAR player if healthy

Is Gibson going to unsign here if we move Mateo in January? Not sure that's how that works. And do you know, without seeing the product, that an IF of Urias/Gunnar/Westburg is defensively worse than Gunnar/Mateo/Urias?

In what sense? Corbin was healthy all his years. Had two great years of ~5 WAR and then has only produced ~10 WAR over his remaining 8 years. Rodon produced 1.7/2.7 WAR in his age 22/23 seasons, then was basically hurt for parts/most of 4 years, and then produced 4.9/6.2 WAR. So you know he's above average, you just don't know what injury bug might get him.

I'm in. Let's go top flight and not worried about the injury history (this is my opinion, feel free to not like it).

From the Astros....not the Orioles.

A guy at his age wouldn't have signed here. He was simply looking at probably the 5 teams with best chance to compete for a WS, and then most money.

He's a 3 or more than half the teams in the ML

You really would slot him behind Kremer and Bradish? I understand they had good years, but this guy has averaged 1.4 WAR for 10 years. They're second year guys. The could be TOR or out of the league by the end of the year. Where was Lyles last year? Behind those guys? And Gibson is better than Lyles

I disagree. This is a safe first move depending on cost. He slots in at number 3 with the assumption you'll get someone in the Bassitt/Eovaldi/Walker/Taillon category. If you get Rodon, then he moves Kremer or Bradish to the pen or AAA as next man up. Or worse case, we start the year with a 6 man.

What about Gibson

Question: Who would you rather have, Gibson or Clevinger, as your number 4 this year.

Exactly, how much would this guy have gotten exactly 1 year ago. Now were saying hes awful.

So posing this question seriously, because I wanted Clevinger, given upside, and I'm going to assume they get similar deals. Who would you rather have for ~$8mil? Also guessing Gibson is a 1year + team option.

Kyle Gibson was once an all star, Jordan Lyles had his best season ever last year. Per fangrahs, was worth 1.8WAR last year to Lyles 1.4. And has had years of 2.6/2.6/3.0. Not to say this is a guy I dreamed of, but it's an improvement over Lyles on the surface. Hoping for Rodon/Bassitt/Eovaldi now.

At this point, with Gibson in house I pass on Thor. Rodon/Bassitt/Eovaldi or bust. Want to give Kremer/Bradish/GRod innings.

Interesting, I don't know how to use the site well. Did he change significantly from 2021? Could he be a 3+ WAR Pitcher with analytics? Did Texas have a significant analytics department and Philly doesnt?

He's better than Lyles based on WAR. Now did we pay him less?

2016: Morton, Beltran, Reddick (4 years) 2017: Rondon (RP), Smith (RP) 2018: Brantley, Miley, Chirinos Now all of those were mostly lower years, but the money was there at market value +. They need was different for their teams than ours though.

I don't disagree. We're still in dreaming time of year. Reality sets in come mid-Jan or Feb with what pieces are left and the French Cordero's of the world. I just think they have the pocketbooks now to compete for these guy if they wanted to, not just can.

One can dream. I'll take my chances with money and hope for something like Bassitt and Rodon but would be okay with Bassitt+ Eovaldi/Thor. Supplement next offseason with ML ready talent in your farm to take you over the top

I don't think that elevates enough in my opinion. Probably a similar return if Well gives you 150IP to Lopez. Maybe a win shorter. And I like Rogers upside, but not at 3.

That's what you want. I think Wells has more value to this team in the pen. Then you don't have to bank on waiver wire to fill out the pen if you can move Wells and Voth there and you know what you're getting. Not saying it has to be Thor, but need two pitchers.

He was fairly effective last season. I think there's a bit more to be gained on the 3.94 ERA if you can get an uptick in velocity and higher K rate (6.35/9 in 2022). But he still got 2.2 WAR, so is worth somewhere around 15mil.

Elias has said he's not done. But probably a few years away. I think personally it should come to a level that home runs can be taken away, so lower the wall. And maybe 10 feet in.

I don't mind him as a second piece. I actually like his chances to outperform Taillon or Walker.