MarCakes21

Why not both? Could you get ECab and Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo/Westburg? And do you do it?

Theyre interested in OF and corner IF players, mainly at the controllable ML level or near ready. You could try to send them Mayo or Cowser as a CF as a centerpiece, and add on Westburg/Ortiz. For reference, from BTV future WAR: Westburg: 15.8 Cowser: 25.0 Ortiz: 13.4 Mayo: 12.2 Lopez: 38.7 Rogers: 36.5 Luzardo: 28 Cabrera: 14.8 If you take those as gospel, I'd be more interested In Luzardo and Cabrera than Rogers or Lopez, and likely for a Westburg/Cowser combo based on @Tony-OH reports.

@Frobby maybe not the right venue for this, as it's more FA valuation, but in getting to a 90 win team, there's a thought process that 1 WAR = $8mil (or whatever the going rate is). However, has anyone graded this on a curve? Like yes, it'd be great if you had 26 2WAR players on your team but in reality, you'll have 10 guys in the 0-1 WAR bucket, 10 in the 1-3, and then need 6 guys in the 3+ (with 5-8 WAR needed). Is WAR in these higher ends actually valued differently?

They are worth about 5/6 in future WAR. Same with Santander. Wish we could get both, but that may be a bridge too far

I like Bryce Miller more as well due to the strikeout upside and better K/BB. Would like to see their BTV ranks

Not sure this deserves its own thread but there’s an article out that Santander is option 1a for the Ms still looking for an OF and they’re flush with SP. https://www.baseballrumors.me/2022/12/mlb-rumors-mariners-linked-to-orioles.html?fbclid=IwAR2sf23ejN28x4lB5P2fQcAS1IGmQRZiu2CvmhyC2WJRlwGksz-t45tOzBg&m=1&mibextid=Zxz2cZ anyone want to begin guessing what a return might look like from the Ms? Guessing it’s not their ML ready SPs.

They definitely say no way to that deal. Cowser and Westburg are the selling points. Top 100 guys. Agree no way on Bradish. I think the key to the deal would be sliding in a replacement for him.

If you're curious what BTV thinks: Burnes: 78.3 vs. Bradish (13), Westburg (15), Cowser (25), and Povich (2). So per them, we come out ahead, but a lot of future projection still unknown. Pretty much assumes he's worth 6WAR per season too.

I was going to agree, but for me it was the known top end. Bradish could easily regress as much as I want him to be our no 2 or 3.

I want the window to discuss one though, but agree 2 years of Burnes at the top is probably worth 2 Top 10 guys Tony was low on.

This. He was worth ~70 mil the past two years. He will get more expensive but unless youre getting back the equivalent of around 5WAR per year, you hold.

I think its a fair comparison, its the only real true backup thats worth more than league min. Casali has a WRC+ over his career of 92 and is projected by Fangraphs for 81 this year. Looks like hes gained 20dWAR over 9 years and 4.8WAR total. He's also a career backup never having over 84 games. McCann has a WRC+ over his career of 83 and is projected by Fangraphs for 86 this year. Looks like hes gained 24.3dWar overe 9 years and 4.5WAR total. So pretty equivalent players. I'll take the dWAR from McCann knowing he's "only" my backup. Anyone know more on how to breakdown the quality of defensive metrics?

Im not sure we could find the same for less. And even at league min, itd be more unpredictable.....or Beneboom.

Tell me why to be that upset? Other than a ML spot and taking ABs from RM. Hed be a good platoon, and not sure on character but hes a vet.

Adding this list of guys. Are there any here that are FA or trade options that would be better? Because we all know that better options that McCann would have cost more on the FA market

Agree. It’s more time with Gunnar and Adley as well as Grod over Voth/Wells innings that will be the improvements and if we can get incremental gains from bounce backs of Frazier/Gibson/McCann, which I think is possible. But injuries are always the question mark.

Bumping this, with McCann now in. Look at the alternatives and cost. I think we'll be okay.

I tend to think systems like the Yanks and Dodgers are always overrated because of the systems. However, on pure stuff, May is elite. It'll be if he's on the field and can hone it. Kinda like Joba Chamberlain a few years back. If they want Mullins and Mateo, I'm requiring May be the centerpiece coming back with 2-3 from the farm. All this is hypothetical though. We haven't even heard the Dodgers are interested in either guy, but that they're looking for a CF, and that teams are interested in Mateo.

Are one of these guys ARod or "just" Correa/Turner/Lindor types? If so, you make the push early for lockup through age 35, if not, then let them walk. Similar with GRod and Adley, but more inherent risk. Adley I think is the most important because of the catcher market, and if he's a 8 WAR guy like Posey or Pudge or Piazza (don't know their WAR), then he's instantly a top 3 MLB player you have to lock. But GRod likely will price himself out unless he wants to be team friendly.

Wouldn't it be awesome if Adley/Grayson competed with Molina/Wainwright for starts as a battery?

This is the deal you make, but if there's one for two of their top 3 MiL SPs, you do that too. I doubt either are on the table.

I'm not on board with current value. My opinion, if we (and others) value him at 2.5 WAR for the next 3 years, he's got ~$50+ mil in surplus value. We should be looking for multiple pitching prospects in return who are near ready. Like the potential LAD deal, with Miller or Stone headlining, and maybe even May as an alternative. BTV does not value him close to this obviously, but if we're getting back Kepler for a year, I see little there.

I agree with the Westburg thought, seems like a guy without a home. I also think Mateo as the ML piece, and slide Gunnar to SS. I'm likely more in the minority there, but seems like you have a good backup option in Ortiz if Gunnar can't play defense there, and Norby waiting for when Frazier has an OPS south of 600.

Wasnt much in the article of value. He might have read this thread because he mentioned Woodruff/Burnes/Bieber.

Thats my premise too. Not sure we devalue guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Cowser by keeping them down assuming they still hit. And flip at the deadline might make them all "closer" to ML ready