MarCakes21

I don't mind him as a second piece. I actually like his chances to outperform Taillon or Walker.

I actually am interested by this move and maybe it makes more sense than a 2 year deal. Say he's hurt for 2 out of the next 5 years at significant amounts. Maybe his 2 years are the first two years or last two. What the Rangers did was spread that risk.

That's pretty good. Sounds like he may be traded again still. So, would you trade Hays for Winker and his 8.5mil straight up? I probably wouldn't but would have the analysis team look hard at why 2021/2022.

This is a great post, a guy with obvious OBP successes, and a great 2021. But would you even trade him straight up for Hays? Right now he’s being salary dumped. I’ve considered him a bounce back candidate and would consider him as an option, but doesn’t seem anyone likes the OBP enough for 8.5 mil.

It’s interesting. Maybe just spreading your risk hoping he’s healthy for 60% of the time.

Hows he different than Hays other than 32yo

I pass on the trade, unless you have a window for an extension. I think the resources are better allocated to someone with more control in a trade, or the money to a no2/3 starter.

I don't think these are comparable on a per game basis. The owners are looking for revenue generated by fan cost. There's: 81 MLB home games at ~40k seat stadiums ~40 NBA/NHL home games at ~18k seat stadiums 8-10 NFL home games at ~80k seat stadiums So I think the point still holds that MLB could actually be more affordable on a total games basis than all of these other venues even at a decrease of ~20% of all costs. Not sure if that would increase attendance, but its an interesting thought.

I'm generally in the same boat. I don't go to ball games to drink $18 beers. Not to say I haven't had a couple before, but it's not where you go to drink. Same with food, I'm not having a ballpark crabcake for $40. If you want to be cost conscious, grab a sub from your local deli before the game, and pack some snacks. Carry in your bottles of water. Get the kids cheer free seats of $8 bleacher seats on weekdays. The Os have done a great job making games affordable for families, but if you want to spend a ton, you can do that too.

Do you see them trying to just use farm depth? Or position players on the active roster, like Mullins or Santander?

Hmm a probe it deal. I think he will be worth more and would have offered him that. At least more upside than Lyles

Im obviously not advocating for Smith as our significant bat, but I’m also not advocating for spending for a significant bat. To the OBP thread, we’re above average just by replacing at bats. Then you hope for some improvement from mount and Hays, and you add something Mancini (or Santana but now gone) for $5 mil to get some solid bench ABs. Smith could fill that role with improvement, or he costs us little to keep in the minors.

I don’t believe there’s a possible trade for Mullins that increases overall team value that couldn’t just be had with money. for example, the many talked about ideas, trade Mullins for Lopez and replace with Cowser or just sign Bassit and keep Mullins and Cowser. I think your team is better short and long by just signing Bassit. that also says Bassit or equivalent will come here

Yea never would want to add a reclamation project on a minor league deal like I note. The guy knows he could get an opportunity if he turns and mount continues to struggle

You’re right, Mateo has no value on any team…. value comes in many forms.

I agree but there’s a difference between not worth it and elite and not worth it and mediocre. Ie scherzer is elite. Is he worth 40 mil? Maybe not but that’s elite.

I asked this similarly and different in another thread. Oak and TB win with a lot of 2-3 win players, yes there’s always a Franco, but they’re competitive even without. I think that’s a model, but our model and therefore competitive window banks more on the 5-7 WAR of Gunnar/adley/grod and letting guys like Mullins walk after their arb years.

A couple names on there interest me that I haven’t seen discussed: - Dominic smith: could be had on a MiL deal and is the LF OBP guy. He had a good 2020 and terrible 2021 and 2022 - Winker: they likely sell very low now that they’ve gotten Hernandez - Thomas: we don’t need an OF but he profiles similar to Hays though he was top 100. I’m sure they’re trying to move him for more than we’d give.

Spend your money elsewhere. Yes those guys can improve the team as all FAs likely will, but what do you do with hays and mounty. They likely don’t bring back much in a trade. And they might bring back 1war gain for a 10+ mil cost. That’s not good math.

I think this is fair. Mullins is like Nimmo. Great to keep at the Arb prices, especially as a 2-3 win player (I’m hoping for more, but may be who he is). The just offer him a QO if they still exist or let him walk. another thought, are there particular guys you want on your team by war? Obviously we all need 2 war players, but if you have a good farm are those guys semi replaceable in FA or through a good system in call ups? You need the 5+ war guys for championships so you have to figure out how to get those in my opinion and best your competition. We are banking on adley/Gunnar/grod being that currently for the next 5-7 years and filling out the rest by other means.

I didn’t say he is a 2, but if the team thinks is defense and speed regress, and over a 5 year he’s more like a 2WAR and platoon where you cut 1/4 of his ABs because that’s your plan, then you trade him at peak value like he’s a 4-5 WAR player now. if you think he’s a 4-5WAR Player though I believe you keep him at least until he’s a UFA. I also think he’s a 3.5+ player who can improve so I advocate keeping him and signing FA SP

What’s his true value though? 3.5 WAR with excess value of 15mil+ here and controllable? Or 2 WAR? If the FO thinks he’s actually a 2 And a platoon, then you trade him like he’s a 4War. But there’s still too much excess value if he’s 3.5+

Yes, he had two years of TJ. So the theory is that that's behind him, but he could still have health issues like any pitcher over the course of 5 year.

150 for 4 of the years and less than 50 for a year

So has every pitcher into their 30s. Look at Kershaw.