MarCakes21

There's no way on Verlander. I think this team understands it's window with some key role players+ (Mullins/Santander/Hays/Mountcastle), and before some other guys get expensive that they'd want to be franchise guys (Adley/Gunner) that a 5 year deal for a pitcher would make sense. And again, this is a new regime that's been told we can spend. Understand we don't know until we see it, but I think the FO has been taking Elias's advice.

I don't understand on why we don't focus on moving Mateo. Sell high, move Gunnar to SS, keep a high WAR GG 3B in Urias.

What out there says Ray is the much better pitcher? This year? Historics? Sewald has a 2.67 ERA this year to Ray with a 3.71. Ray had a great outlier year last year, and one top notch season before that but other than that, he's a 1.5-2.5 win player.

Robbie Ray stinks. Hope he's a terrible contract for them.

Is there a way (I know this will be more work on your part) to group the contracts similar to what was done with hitters/pitchers to see trends? Like I'm sure we see most of the pre-arb contracts working out, but for example: Contracts to hitters age 27 or younger, 27-32, 32+ Contracts to pitchers age 27 or younger, 27-32, 32+

I like Lodolo, but remind me why the Reds make this move?

If you could do Mateo for Lopez straight up, I'd be interested. I think we need a mid-rotation starter in addition to our FA push on SP, and I also believe Mateo has the most trade value assuming others value him as a 3 WAR player too.

I don't think so. You can't equate 6 10 game winners to 3 20 game winners, because you still have two more pitchers. I think they're saying the bullpen and top end bullpen talent is more critical in the playoffs. You need to be able to get to your closer with whoever starts.

Let's assume we don't have the checkbook for Verlander/deGrom and Kershaw won't come here. Rank the remaining as desired, including what you think they'll get in a deal, here's mine: 1. Rodon: Pitches like an ace, hopefully not in the $40 per year territory, but I'd be okay with 35-30 per for up to 5 years. 2. Bassitt 3. Eovaldi 4. Clevinger: I think there's more in the tank as he recovers 5. Severino: I think the Yankees allure makes him too expensive for his value 6. Syndergaard 7. Stripling

I doubt we pony up for all 3, so realistically I target 1 and 2.

Anyone have this for Vavra? Looks like he didn't make the minimum 50 throw cutoff. Is there minor league data available? Really wondering if his arm is good enough to fill in at 3B or RF for an off day or thats a non starter. He did play SS in College.

Maybe I'm crazy, but if he can throw from LF, he can throw from 3B.

Agree on the spirit, I also don't consider 1 and 2 moves, so you could add two more.

When I say Super U, I think LF/RF/2B/3B/1B. Westburg would slide to SS for Henderson off days. And if Henderson is hurt, than you'd bring up Ortiz.

Yup, I would. Even knowing he might miss one of those completely.

1. Sign Rodon, even overpay, for 3 years. 2. Sign Bassitt or Clevenger 3. Trade Mateo for either a MOO 1B/DH or a mid-rotation starter and let the young guys play (Henderson to SS, Westburg to 2B, Urias to 3B, Vavra Super Util).

They certainly changed an approach this year, which I think affected both Mountcastle and Hays, and then those two slipped into new ways later in the year too. They wanted them to be more selective and take more walks. Not sure if overall this is the approach for the team, but it's one approach.

I keep alluding to it, but you have to think where your value is. Vavra likely hasn't built any external value yet. Urias seemingly has value with his bat and his defense at 3B, and maybe even 2B, but I doubt other teams see him as a 3-5 WAR player. Mateo has value in his defense and speed, which I think other teams would see.

So which has more value, both to you and to other teams? I think Urias has more value here and Mateo to other teams?

My opinion: 1B: Mountcastle (don't want to spend and hope he rebounds) 2B: Westburg (top 100 guy who needs a home) SS: Hendersson (needs to shine in his early days at his prime position 3B: Urias (the guy not traded, because he can fill in at 3B and 2B, and Westburg could slide to SS for Gunnar days off) I'm going under the thought that Mateo is traded to maximize value. The thing he excelled at, defense and SB, could disappear in a year. But I think Urias's steadiness is likely to continue and his versatility is valued. I also think Vavra will be backup 2B/3B unless someone his hurt and we would need Ortiz.

I don't think that's the point SG is making. He's saying you keep the minor league players assuming they can be role players, or trading minor league players for high impact (not established/role) players, ie Burnes/Woodruff/Alcantra types.

It's actually the one I would prefer to trade. My opinion, but if we have solid defense at SS/3B/CF, we could use the bat of Norby more than the combo glove/bat of Westburg. And Ortiz still has hidden potential that I don't think would be valued fully by other teams. Having said that, I'm still of the opinion that none will be traded this offseason. I think they're more likely to trade Mateo/Urias/Santander if anyone and stick with the young guys for an extended look.

Agree. Just like the trade deadline deal, if you can get Snell or similar for Santander +, then you do it.

Probably a better idea than signing Adley unfortunately. If I could buy out 2-3 years of Adley's FA I'd do that first, but I doubt he would unless he's certain he wants to be in Baltimore.

That's scary exciting.