MarCakes21

Yup watched him as well, seems like a great hitter and teammate.

Awesome! Let's hope the reports are accurate.

Speaking of these, any way to calculate accumulated WAR for rookies? Any chance Adley ends up in top 2 of ROY assuming maintained production? Or are we looking at the Joe Ryan's/Julio Rodriguez only.

Could see it both ways. If you think you already have the generational talent (Adley?) then supplement it with many 3-5 Win guys over 2 guys.

Projected MLB wins (by your staff and analytics department).

If you take BPA guys, that means you take overslot guys frequently and you don't have draft capital. So do you actually get the MOST talent that way?

I partly agree, but in general, isn't the goal to end up with the MOST talent, as opposed to the single BEST talent? And I'm in the Jones camp just for reference.

The writeup seems fine, but other than makeup and playing for dad, not sure it screams no 1 pick. May move off SS to 3B, good bat control but not a ton of projection/growth left.

I guess that's a good example and one I somehow missed. They've got CJ Cron, signed at 7.5/year and found in a scrap heap a bit lucky. So yea, if I knew I could get approx 3WAR for 10-15mil, I'd do it.

I'll take Snell. I think Hall has the chance to be better than any of them and we can afford the salary.

A quick look down the fangraphs list lets me see Christian Walker, Ty France, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom, and Josh Naylor as the only guys who might be making less than Mancini but are a 1B/DH with similar WARs. I didn't cross reference contracts. So are they really a dime a dozen?

We all talk about "not paying that for a 1B/DH type". @Frobbyknows an easy way to look, but are there really that many guys on league minimum with 2-3 WAR for a 1B/DH type? Are they really a dime a dozen?

Yes, if you look at the straight numbers. Or 3.7 in 2019, pre cancer, and 2.0 in 78 games so far this year. So maybe he's actually a 4 win player currently. So maybe you're actually buying into a 4, 3.5, 3 win player. If I was his agent at least, that's what I'd be selling.

I appreciate the analysis, and it makes sense to me. I'm just saying, if it were a bifurcated solution, I'd take the bird in hand (if it were that easy) and take Trey for 3/$36 at ~3WAR per year rather than a lottery ticket for a potential FV of 3 WAR average. Now if I could guarantee if I could double my value, and trade him and resign him, then let's do it.

I agree with that, but that's average value. That means likely over 5 years middling as 0.5 rWAR players though on the average. So yes, dollar wise its more valuable to move, but 2.6 rWAR over 2 months vs 5 years isnt overly comparable.

Mark Canha says hi. 2 years old, similar defense profile, worse hitter.

Why? Don't think he'd produce at 2 WAR for 3 years? Anything credible? He's only 31 at the start of next year, so we'd have him in his 31-33 ages.

So let's say it takes 3/$36 or so to extend Mancini, some combination of a discount for us and good will for him. And let's say he could get you some teams no. 10 prospect. Do you make that deal? Do you assume that Stowers can produce at OPS+ levels at or near Mancini for league min over the next 3 years at the same time? If not, a year later your looking at trying to patch work your DH slot. Why not take out some of the future risk with a minimal deal through his prime years.

I'm just uncertain of Mullins present value in a trade and future value to the team. Can anyone help quantify this? Last year he was great, 30/30. This year, still very good but a lot on the defense. Is he valued at this years comps, last years, or in between. And what's that get us? If it's last years comps, lets trade him. This years, I may consider keep as core.

A 201 ERA+ and 4th in CY voting in 2020 is meh? He's been hurt and was a reliever in 2021 as a result. He was sent down this year, so he's in the minors, but seemingly having success in the minors as well, but only currently as a 1 IP reliever.

Whats the cost? Santander? Mayo? I'd be interested

If it was Volpe I'd be okay

He got this way second half of the season last year, almost seeming to chase 30/30. I think he could still be tweaked to get it right, not that he's been bad, but he can be better.

I'm leaning this way as well. I think this year you trade Santander/Mancini for value and then you have another year to decide what Mullins is and what his future with this team is. If you think you can resign him as a 4WAR player, then go for it. If you think he has more future value to this team in a trade piece, then go for it.

Agree. Look at the first month this season for Torkelson/Witt/Rodriguez. Then look at months 2-3.