7Mo

Sign Tyler Anderson. Trade relatively little for Merrill Kelly. If reasonable offers are available, trade Mountcastle and Hays. Sign Michael Brantley to DH and check on signing Matt Carpenter (is he fixed, did he figure something out, or was it a small sample size that deceives?) to play 1B.

I would guess Burnes would be a very high prospect cost and less so for Bieber. I'm hoping the "toward the TOR pitcher" is acquired with money rather than prospects. But Burnes is really good.

If you're thinking Bassitt, I'd also consider free agents Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana. I you're going the trade route, Shane Bieber and Merrill Kelly might be available for a reasonable prospect package.

Really good post. Glad you said this.

JMO but I don't think he's traded because I think Elias will believe he can continue building his value. That's what I would bet on too. If the question is whether Mateo is our everyday SS, we'll have Gunner available to move over from 3B and Mateo isn't costly so I don't think that's an issue. All that changes if some team makes a great offer for him this winter.

Meaning whether he's traded or not?

Meaning whether he's traded or not?

I mean he wasn't unaware of his talent and he's a confident guy, and has a right to be. A part of those 10 year deals requires a discount for the inherent risk. Gunnar seems like a guy who is likely to bet on his high side rather than play it safe. It didn't require hiring Boras for him to get there.

But he wasn't unaware either.

No doubt Frobby would have posted that and of course, without knowing the terms, there's no way of saying whether you would agree with it or not. That's the key.

Yep, definitely didn't happen.

Same but it seems obvious so I bet Frobby has a bunch of facts and figures he's ready to drop later.

Not someone, the man said "everyone".

I'd imagine your post was something like "the smart thing to do would be to sign Gunnar to a long term deal now but ownership hasn't shown they'll spend the money." I remember posts arguing about whether ownership will spend at the right time. But that's a different point.

I'd be surprised if anyone disagreed with the concept. The cost might make a difference as would Gunnar's willingness.

Do you mean "everyone" on this board?

I'd love that. Just don't think that's how Elias will go about things.

Really good post and I think you're thinking more along the lines like Elias and crew will be thinking. I seriously doubt we target a high cost guy. But I think it's very likely they rely on analytics to try to find someone they think can be a top of the rotation guy. And if analytics say Rogers can be fixed, like a Voth, I'd do Mountcastle for him in a minute. Unfortunately, I don't have the information that led them to Voth or Jordan Lyles or Tyler Wells, etc.

It would definitely be unusual and Brantley may not have an interest in doing it anyway. I'm a fan of how he grinds at bats and I think that fits what Elias will be targeting.

I agree. Or an aging outfielder. I think I really like the idea of signing Michael Brantley to play first.

Individually sure, collectively (meaning full roster improvement) no.

That doesn't seem consistent with what Elias has been doing. I doubt we target someone as costly as Cease whether it's money cost or prospect cost. I think 2 of Hays, Mullins, Santander and Mountcastle are traded this offseason. I could see Mullins to Miami for pitchers our analytics love which might be a guy to produce now (like a Jesus Lazardo or Edward Cabrera) along with a prospect who is a few years away like an Eder or Fulton. Not sure how much we need to add to make that work. I think Elias would be comfortable filling CF for the time being with McKenna + Phillips66. Then I think we spend on someone like Jose Quintana or Tyler Anderson. Then you still have 1 of Hays, Santander or Mountcastle (and likely Tate) to trade to fill spots or free agency.

I'd like to know how intent he is on improving. The Mateo stories about his improvement during this season are fairly well known and the end result, to date, has been remarkable. I commend Mateo for making big changes to what he was doing before. Not everyone is willing to do that. That's not a slight to Mountcastle in the least. But some players are more amenable to change than others, and some more determined to make needed changes. I think his mindset is a big factor in where he goes from here and what Elias chooses to do as a result. Not everything is related to what the Astros did but one of biggest areas of improvement was the strikeout rate from one year to the next. I think Elias will be focusing on that as an area where switching maybe 3 guys in the lineup could make a huge difference in '22 and '23.

He threw quite a bit at Auburn this year, 80 IP which led the team compared to 49 IP in '21.

I'm with you if the TOR SP is a truly significant add, like a Verlander on a huge $$ short term contract or someone like Brandon Woodruff/Corbin Burns/Zac Gallen/Shane Bieber. And deal Mountcastle if a reasonable offer presents itself and spend for a highly productive 1B/DH combo. And it could very well be that their analytics see something in Lyles that causes them to renegotiate his next year to 2-3 years at a lesser overall average salary cost and keep him too.