7Mo

I agree. I was happy the Sox picked him and saved us.

With the proviso that I have nowhere close to enough information to even speculate, here are some names I like with Fangraphs ranking in parenthesis. Names others mention frequently that likely won't be available: Carson Whisenhunt (18), Peyton Graham (10), Cade Horton (12). At 33: Spencer Jones 6'7" RF (28), Daniel Susac C Ariz (30), Gabriel Hughes P Gonzaga (33) and Blade Tidwell P Tenn (34). At 42: Justin Campbell 6'7" RHP Okla St (42), Cade Doughty 3B, LSU (48), Adam Mazur 6'2" RHP Iowa (50). At 67: Walter Ford 6'3" HS P (61), Thomas Harrington 6'2" RHP Campbell (65) and Jordan Beck 6'3" RF Tenn (89) although I see him mocked in the first round really often. At 81: Sam Horn, HS P 6'4" (83), Ben Joyce 6'5" RHP Tenn (89) https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000&team=

Keith Law posted a mock today saying we pick Holliday but my guess is Lee or Jones.

Cowser named a Big Hype Prospect. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/big-hype-prospects-meyer-pratto-ruiz-greene-cowser.html Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410 AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615 In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles. If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

No idea who this guy is or if he's credible but he has a lot of detail in his eval. In particular, he provides more detail about whether Lee can play short. For what it's worth, he has Druw Jones 1 and the report is glowing. https://medium.com/@tieranbaseball/mlb-draft-top-500-prospects-fba9fe7fceaf The glove is very fringy at shortstop and I, like most people, think he is better suited for third base long term. That doesn’t mean he’s not at least passable at shortstop though- he might play at a Xander Bogaerts level defensively at the most premium of positions. Brooks is not a great athlete. His foot speed is well below-average and he’s exactly light on his feet. He has limited range. He does do a good job making plays to his glove side though and has decent enough mobility. The actions are mostly fluid and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield. The arm strength is a plus with excellent arm utility. He can uncork throws across the diamond with strong velocities and solid accuracy. Brooks can make throws from multiple arm angles and does so regularly. This is often to his detriment as he tends to drift into a less power and less accurate side arm slot when he really doesn't need to. This causes his arm to play down a bit to only a 55 grade. Lee is probably only average defensively at the hot corner but there is some defensive upside here.

Perfect. Thanks for the detailed response.

You have a good appreciation for what college hitting coaches teach. Do you have an issue with the idea that Druw Jones did not pull a ball to the left side of left center field in advanced competition? To me, he's followed what his Dad has preached to him about up the middle and going the other way. One article talks about him having an arm bar preventing him from pulling the ball and describes it as possibly a simple mechanical fix. Your thoughts?

Despite being this size at this age, which might typically cause long-term 1B/DH projection, Collier's defensive feet, hands, actions, and arm strength are all excellent, and might make him a future plus third base defender.

I can't edit or delete so let me just say my mistake, I read it wrong. That's NOT what it says.

I really liked Collier until reading the Fangraphs link above that said he's going to grow into a 1B/DH. Maybe accurate, maybe not but it altered my view of him.

You don't know?

How much?

Well, it's not "saved money". They spend it on someone else. Do you disagree with that? And I know all about BPA. I've read your posts a few times. I'm just saying it's not "saved money".

If the pick is Lee, that would confirm to me that the mentions of Sig viewing him as Bregman are accurate and I'd be really happy with that. "Highest floor" is a criticism the Cards had for years with their picks when Elias and Sig were there and someone posted (I think Nelson) that the Cards had the most picks reach the majors during their time there. I'd be uncertain about Johnson. I'd be fine with Jones or Holliday. Would really question Berry but I don't think that's a possibility. Really more interested in the next 3 picks by now.

Saw a comment saying Sig saw him as Alex Bregman. If that's accurate, I'd guess he'll be the pick.

Not sure about "real expensive" but clearly we valued him higher than other teams did during the offseason and that's proven to be a good judgment to date. There's a good chance there wind up being 3-4 deadline deals bringing players back so Lyles specifically wouldn't have to return a starter so long as 1-2 starter capable guys come back in one trade or another.

My belief is that Mike Elias has made every decision to date consistent with his original plan and has not deviated from that plan. I don't think that changes based on being close to wildcard contention. I believe that the front office has internal valuations on all players and that valuation dictates whether a trade is made or not. As an example, I thought Fry and Scott would be moved at last years deadline. Seemed to make perfect sense. The only reason I can figure that they weren't is that we did not receive an offer that met the front office's internal valuations. My guess is all the names mentioned on this board frequently are available in trade and the MLB market as a whole is very aware that Mancini, Lopez, Tate, Santander, Odor, Lyles and others are available. Whether they are traded is driven entirely on whether we receive what we value to be a fair offer. And it's not driven in the least by the idea "we should trade Santander because Stowers is ready". Without going back to look at Elias quotes, my memory is that he's always talked about building an elite talent pipeline with the intent to compete for championships. I don't think that means "maybe make the playoffs". My guess is the front office is happy with progress to date but feels we are several significant steps from the original goal or plan. And I think the end result is some trades are made but not as many as could be and frankly, I don't think the idea of a "PR hit" will be a factor at all.

I agree with your thoughts but if the CBA adds some kind of floor, I can't imagine it being effective at the start of the '22 season. The CBA is likely agreed to in February. Seems more likely that it becomes effective for the '23 season.

Good post. I like those names.

Thanks for posting. Hermann is a guy who has been tied in with Premier Pitching and Performance, where John Means made great strides.

Agree with all of your post. If the O's win 70 next year, that's an 18 game improvement. Pretty big step. If they'd won 70 this year, they'd be picking 6th so I think there's one more year with higher picks than I would have guessed.

Uphill. Both ways.

I would want to do that. Abrams is a difference maker.

The Marlins are talking publicly about adding hitters. There was speculation about Marlins talks for Mullins at the deadline. If Mullins gets traded, Miami might make sense. They've got plenty of young pitching.

Add Mateo.