Orioles Primed for Second Place Finish

[Jammer7]

Many things have to go right, and injuries will play a role certainly. If we can avoid long term injuries to the everyday lineup and the top 3-4 starters, then I like our chances at the wildcard.

The post that broke it down by position was very good, and Cano, Mo, Jeter, Tex, ARod and CC are stars that we cannot match. But I think there are a few more things to consider. First, Buck proved last year that a quality manager can make a huge difference in the players' performance. I believe Buck is the better manager if you compare him to Girardi. (There can however be a quick end to the honeymoon with a stern manager like Buck.) Second, the Yanks will miss Pettite in many ways beyond every fifth day. He meant a lot more to that staff, and the team, than people realize. Third, when everything is going well, NY loves them Yanks. If they stumble out of the gate, heads will roll and the media will eat that team alive.

I said during the winter meetings I thought we had a legitimate shot at the wildcard and with Vlad, my belief is certainly stronger.

[baltfan]

Won't you all please come join me? Here is the reasoning.

While this is in part about the improvements the Orioles have made, this is equally about the steps back (for 2011 at least) of the Rays, Yanks, and Jays.

The Yanks rotation is a bit of a mess after Sabathia. Hughes has a 4.90 ERA in the second half and that was actually lucky. His BABIP was .262 in the second half vs. .284 in the first. Burnett is a head case. Nova is not the answer. The rest of the guys they have brought in are the types of desperate moves that the Orioles normally make. Jeter took a step back last year. A-Rod is in decline. They are talking about not catching Posada as much. I seriously doubt that Gardner will once again have a much better year in the majors than he ever did in the minors. And Pettite is gone. Going to be a rough year for this team.

The Rays lost Crawford, Soriano, Bartlett, and Garza. Sure they have some great young talent in Hellboy, Brignac, Jennings, and McGee, but odds are there will be struggles especially early on.

The Jays have a new manager. They got a career year our of Batista last year, Marcum pitched almost like a No. 1, and Wells looked rejuvinated. Wells is now gone. Who is the ace of this staff--Romero?? John Buck's .802 OPS is gone along with his ability to work with the young starters. Overbay is gone. Ok, he sucked. But can Lind actually play first? Is Rivera really a replacement for Wells or will he get eaten up by AL East pitching? Rajai Davis in centerfield. Seriously, is anyone going to get on base for this team? Maybe they will work through this, but there are a lot of ticking time bomb signs.

That brings us to the Orioles. They upgraded three positions with slightly above average players where they were among the worst in the majors. Is Vlad on the decline? Of course. Quick quiz, since 1997 how many times has Vlad hit under .300. Answer: Once, 2009 - .295. Seems to me that when great hitters decline they usually are hitting well below .300. There is a real chance for a snowball effect for this entire lineup. It won't happen, but every position is capable of an OPS of 800 or more. How many lineups are that balanced? The key is the starting pitching. But the defense is better and the offense is better, that has to take some of the pressure off so these guys can just focus on pitching.

Of course, this could all go wrong. Hardy could get injured, Roberts back may never be the same, Vlad could be limping like Mays with the Mets, Reynolds could strike out 230 times without the power, Wieters may not step up, Matusz might be nothing more than a #3, and the other young pitchers might just be filler.

But this year, more than any year in a long time, the stars are aligning. This is our time. This is our place. This is our destiny. Second place in the AL East. Who else is on board? Add your name proudly to this thread for posterity's sake.

[coachkuhn]

That is a major leap!! One that I would LOVE to see but not sure. I want to see us taking those home games against the Sox and Yankees. If we can get close to 82 wins, that would be a very good season. But I will take as many more as the guys want to give us!!

[SoYoCoTransplant]

I am on board.... post of the year!

[reisig08]

I think there is a possibility but I am still projecting them 4th with a near .500 record if not just above..I think the AL East is going to be VERY good this season.

My projection looks like this:

Boston - 102 - 60 - This is sickest lineup in the Majors with All star talent at almost every position, and a nice mix of youth and vets. A few of their possible reserves could start on a lot of other teams. And their pitching is off the charts. They have 5 starters with Cy Young Award caliber talent in Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka. A few of them had down years last season and should bounce back. Finally, the bullpen is pretty solid again too....Matt Albers not withstanding...(haha)

New York - As much as they could be in decline, they still have a very good lineup and great talent at the front of the rotation. With Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, ARod, Granderson, Swisher, and Posada in the lineup, and with solid reserves like Russell Martin and Justin Maxwell, it will still be a tall task to pitch through this order...and with Sabathia, Hughes, and Burnett, they do have potential for three 15 game winners. Hughes and Burnett are good arms but could be inconsistent, so I do agree that this could be the year that they slide down the rankings. The bullpen is not bad actually and a few young arms could come out of the 'pen and become starters, which could really help them out. And there is always the chance they move prospects up or out to inject talent or pick up established talent to make a run. But with the talent they have, on paper, I still have to put them at #2....but a distant #2...no one is catching Boston.

Tampa Bay - This was a tough call because it all hinges on youth making an early impact for TB, but Joe Maddon has proven he can get a lot out of unproven but unquestioned talent. I like their pitching actually even though it is very young. Hellickson is ready and Wade Davis is going to be very solid. And of course, they still have Price, who is my preseason pick for the Cy Young award. Finally, they have Shields, McGee, Sonanstine, and Niemann. I expect Shields to be moved at some point during the season but he's a solid vet in this rotation.

The lineup is also a question mark even with Damon and Manny coming in. Of course, perennial MVP candidate Evan Longoria gives this lineup instant cachet. Guys like Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, and Matt Joyce could be underrated. If they were on the O's, we'd be somewhat positive on their prospects in the upcoming season, which is how I have to look at players when comparing the teams. Finally, they'll have some good speed with BJ Upton and Desmond Jennings (when he gets there, which should be early if he doesn't join the team out of Port Charlotte outright...). I think the O's can overtake TB, but with what I've seen Joe Maddon and his staff do with talent in the past, I am defaulting the Rays here for now.

Baltimore Orioles - With the best lineup the O's have offered up in over 10 years and pitchers on the verge of making a huge impact, I see the O's reaching .500 baseball for the first time in 13 years. Guthrie is not an ace but he is not afraid of any lineup and he can be a bulldog...just ask the Yankees...2011 will also be the year that Brian Matusz becomes a bonafide stud. He's mature beyond his years on the mound and he also is not intimidated by anyone. I saw all I needed to see in his Major League debut against the Tigers when he got out of his last inning, the 5th, with one out and a 2nd and third situation. He got out of the jam by bearing down and getting back to back strikeouts in the middle of a dangerous Detroit lineup. He's about to pop...and Arrietta is not far behind. Jake pitches with a major chip on his shoulder but it doesn't hurt his focus. He will be a perfect mid rotation arm for years for the O's and should win around 12 games a year when he hits his stride. Bergesen is proven and pitches well at Camden Yards. Duchsherer is the unknown but being in Maryland, close to his son, and with his back problems seemingly behind him, I like his chances of having a solid impact. Although the back could be an issue at some point, at least he has no arm issues. Plus, Zach Britton is ready. He's tailor made for Camden Yards and reminds me of a Scott Erickson type. When he gets here, he'll stay.

The bullpen has experience and should keep the O's in games.

The lineup is a very nice mix of talent that should keep pitchers off balance with good power, good contact hitters, and some speed. The young and talented hitters like Jones and Wieters will no longer be counted on to be major run producers and should make great strides with a bit more anonymity. Obviously, the veterans are proven and dangerous. The O's will no longer be a punchline...Buck Showalter's team will be feared and is ready to make a move in this division (GO O's!!!)

Toronto - This is a team in transition and I fully expect the Jays to end up in the cellar...but they do have some excellent young talent that will debut this year in the Majors and a lot of talent on the way. It won't be long before Toronto is back in contention with a fast rebuilding effort in progress.

[OFFNY]

2011 Orioles: 83 WINS - 79 LOSSES ......... Last place in the A.L. East.

Finally, a winning season.

.

[allstar1579]

Much improved, NO chance at 2nd place. I'll be astonished if they finish 3rd.

[El Gordo]

I still see the MFY's as number two(pun definitely intended) but not at 95 W's, more like 91.

[Hoiles4Life]

I'm a lurker by nature, (been here about 18 months I guess) so I don't know how much I'll actually post, but I signed up specifically to respond to this. I know I've felt like Charlie Brown when Lucy yanks the football out of his way at the last second, "this is the year," every time.

BUT, I believe. I'll go you one better: Put me down as saying we win the wildcard. I mean this seriously. No sarcasm intended.

I know practically nothing about sabermetrics, though I gather they don't look good for the Orioles. I'm sure that makes it easier for me than for most of you, but...

The best reasoning I have is while we have plugged all the major holes in our lineup: DH, Shortstop, the merry-go-round of "Who's on First," you get the idea. Also, the other teams in the AL East except the Sox have regressed. In the past they could count on the Orioles as an easy win. That allowed teams like the MFYs to win 95 games. The Blue Jays went something like 15-3 against us. That won't happen again. I think with the other teams in the division not winning so many against us, the number of wins needed goes down, I guess (with no mathematical proof) to about 90 for the wildcard.

Also, the MFYs could have a season like the Sox last year. What happens to their rotation if CC tears a rotator cuff and misses a chunk of the season? What if A-rod's hip gets worse?

We aren't the only team with problems. Yeah, that's all I got. No math, I just believe in our team this year.

[Flosman]

I think the club has constructed has the most realistic chance of reaching 2nd place since the late 1990s. With that being said they have to have a bunch go right and a fair amount to go wrong for the other guys. I think we are better than Toronto going into the season, but that is the only team you can say that about.

Tampa is counting on guys producing that are far from sure things but so are we.

The Yankees are a better team on paper but are counting on a bunch of old guys. Their pitching is suspect and thin. A couple of the old guys get hurt or just start to decline they are not unbeatable. Not to mention CC getting hurt. I don't think AJ or Hughes are sure things either. I think they have a high chance of being more like the Red Sox of 2010.

If the Sox are heathy they are not going to be beat over the long haul of the season, IMO.

[oriole]

As much as I hate to say it, I think people may be underrating the Yankees this season. They still have a very potent offense. On the other hand, I just don't see what makes TB anything but mediocre on paper. Great rotation but offense just isn't looking great. Longoria is never going to get a pitch to hit just like Markakis last year. And Toronto was lucky last year, enough said.

I see us battling with TB for 3rd while flirting with .500. Just don't tell the Orioles that.

[mrbig1]

We have got to have a winning record vs the AL central and AL west to even have a shot.

[Rex Thunder]

I'm a lurker by nature, (been here about 18 months I guess) so I don't know how much I'll actually post, but I signed up specifically to respond to this. I know I've felt like Charlie Brown when Lucy yanks the football out of his way at the last second, "this is the year," every time.

BUT, I believe. I'll go you one better: Put me down as saying we win the wildcard. I mean this seriously. No sarcasm intended.

I know practically nothing about sabermetrics, though I gather they don't look good for the Orioles. I'm sure that makes it easier for me than for most of you, but...

The best reasoning I have is while we have plugged all the major holes in our lineup: DH, Shortstop, the merry-go-round of "Who's on First," you get the idea. Also, the other teams in the AL East except the Sox have regressed. In the past they could count on the Orioles as an easy win. That allowed teams like the MFYs to win 95 games. The Blue Jays went something like 15-3 against us. That won't happen again. I think with the other teams in the division not winning so many against us, the number of wins needed goes down, I guess (with no mathematical proof) to about 90 for the wildcard.

Also, the MFYs could have a season like the Sox last year. What happens to their rotation if CC tears a rotator cuff and misses a chunk of the season? What if A-rod's hip gets worse?

We aren't the only team with problems. Yeah, that's all I got. No math, I just believe in our team this year.

The number of wins needed to take the AL East may have gone down, but all that does it make it tougher for the wildcard winner to come from this division. The AL Central and West are much softer and provide a much easier road to 90+ wins for a 2nd place team.

I am optimistic that this could be a year of magic for the O's...especially given the way the Ravens and Terps seems to shoot blanks when it counts most lately. Perhaps it's all just a set up for Baltimore sports fans to enjoy the ride at Camden Yards this season.

At the very least, as always, fun to have something to hope for...

[isestrex]

No AL East team will win 95 games this year.

The competition is too fierce and there are too many head to head matchups.

[El Gordo]

The number of wins needed to take the AL East may have gone down, but all that does it make it tougher for the wildcard winner to come from this division. The AL Central and West are much softer and provide a much easier road to 90+ wins for a 2nd place team.

I am optimistic that this could be a year of magic for the O's...especially given the way the Ravens and Terps seems to shoot blanks when it counts most lately. Perhaps it's all just a set up for Baltimore sports fans to enjoy the ride at Camden Yards this season.

At the very least, as always, fun to have something to hope for...

I'm not so sure this is true. The 2nd place team winning 90 + in the ALC, or the ALW, has only happened 3 times since 2000, and if anything there is more parity in those divisions this season.