Orioles Primed for Second Place Finish

[Eddie_Murray33]

Just curious as to why alot of people consider TB to be in the upper tier of the AL East still, and easily dismiss the Orioles as an 80-83 win team at best? I'm not saying the O's are a contender, though my heart as a fan says "Hell Yeah" this team can contend.

The Yankees are showing signs of aging in A-Rod, Posada, and Jeter. And i've read opinions that feel Teixiera is starting his decline. Their pitching is suspect, though i feel they have a solid BP.

Boston looks like on paper they will dominate, but who knows. Big Papi is getting older, as is Drew. Beckett has declined and their BP doesn't look to good on paper. And alot of experts say that moving to a new league will hurt Reynolds, but feel Adrian Gonzalez won't be affected?

TB lost Crawford and Pena. They signed Manny and Damon, but I feel that won't equal what they lost. They traded Bartlett and lost their entire BP basically. They still have a good rotation, but I think their offense will negate that alot.

Toronto, while doing a good job in ridding themselves of Wells black hole of a contract, seems to have thrown in the towel for 2011 in hopes of the future.

On paper, I feel 1-9 anyway, the O's have the potential to have a better offense then the Yankees and i think will hold their own against Bos. I don't thin it's out of the realm of possibility that Matusz makes a jump this year, like Price did last year. He showed a hint of that the last month and a half. Guthrie is solid, and you never know what can happen with the rest of the team. I just feel alot of fans let the negativity of the last 13 years sway their optimism that this team has the ability to be very good.

Anyhow, this is just an average fans opinion. I used no stats or measuring tools to come to my conclusions. I just used my gut feeling. Maybe the O's will finish 4th or 5th, or maybe just maybe they win the whole bleepin thing. (Major League reference)

Hey, Why Not?

I think some of what you write here PLUS what the O's did down the stretch under Buck finally convinced ownership and management that there actually IS a scenario or two in 2011 where the Orioles can finish within the top 2 of the AL East and contend for the wildcard. It's very likely not a high probability- but significant enough that it was deemed worthy of chasing. That alone is an exciting and refreshing breath of fresh air. We'll see how it plays out.

I think what we should all hope for is a season where we: (1) win more than we lose; (2) "stay in it" (at least the periphery of the wildcard race) until September; (3) get back to packin' in OPACY like it's 1996/1997; and (4) most importantly that (1) - (3) proves an irrestible brew for Oriole brass and ownership and we get back to making it an annual rite again. That alone would be a monumental step forward for this organization- even if we come up a little short in 2011.

[Say O!]

The Orioles will be the first team in history to finish in last place with a winning record.

83 WINS - 79 LOSSES ......... 5th Place in The A.L. East

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Was curious about what the AL East collective record versus the rest of baseball would need to be to achieve this outcome.

Assumptions

BOS 95 wins

NYY 90 wins

TAM 87 wins

TOR 85 wins

O's 83 wins

Total record = 440 wins, 370 losses (.543 winning percentage)

By rule collective record of AL east vs AL east will be .500 record (144 wins - 144 losses). That leaves a collective record versus the rest of baseball to be 296 wins - 226 losses (.567 winning percentage).

Before I went through these calculations, my suspicion was that AL East would need to play >.600 baseball to have 5 teams above .500 records with 2 teams winning more than 90 games. It would be one thing if the AL East teams were closely clustered at slightly above .500, but expecting 2 outstanding teams (90+ wins), I thought it would be a true domination versus the rest of the league to achieve that type of W-L record distribution. Now, .567 is very good (equivalent of full season record of 92 wins and 70 losses) but it's just not as outlandish as was suspecting (thought it would need to be the equivalent of 100 win team).

For reference, the 2005 NL East which had all 5 teams at .500 or above was a collective 280-241 versus the rest of baseball for the equivalent of .537 winning percentage or 87-75 record over the course of full season. Difference was 3 of the teams records were just barely above .500 (Nats at 81-81, NYM 83-79, FLA 83-79 and PHI had 88 wins with ATL winning division with only 90).

[Slappy]

You beat me to it.

Hargrove was a pretty good skipper too. You can't polish turds, which is what Thrift gave him to work with.

Hargrove should be enshrined on the mezzanine for what he did with the 2001-02 teams. Those had to be the most talent-deprived teams ever to wear an Orioles uniform.

[OFFNY]

Given the declining status of New York & Tampa Bay, the leadership of "Buck", (first legitimate skipper since #4), starting pitching coming of age, and all the additions to the team for 2011....look out AL East....the bird is back. You can throw out all your WARs/OPSs/etc......it is on my brother!

You may have been correct ...... just off by a year. O:wedge:

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

You may have been correct ...... just off by a year. O:wedge:

Except it was the declining status of the Bo Sox and the injuries to the Jays.

Also, this just in, the Rays offense is hot right now. I think it will cool down, but they are surging into that second place spot and are much more complete team than us..

[Frobby]

Except it was the declining status of the Bo Sox and the injuries to the Jays.

Also, this just in, the Rays offense is hot right now. I think it will cool down, but they are surging into that second place spot and are much more complete team than us..

With so many teams in the race, lots of teams will get hot and cold. The O's just need to do their own thing. We do play Tampa six more times, so obviously it will help us to finish ahead of them if we can win the majority of those games.

[Brendan25]

7 straight wins by Tampa... something the O's have yet to accomplish this year. They are getting hot at the worst time as far as the O's are concerned.

It's all the pitching. Look at how many runs they have given up during this stretch, including the 1-0 loss to us.

[OFFNY]

If this happened it would suck, but it would go a long way toward opening up the discussion on division realignment.

I don't want realignment. I don't want ANY special favors. If we are in the toughest division in baseball, so be it. I want to play against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Jays, and I want to beat them head-on, fair and square, or not at all.

OOOWe can do this.

[isestrex]

Whenever my non-Oriole friends asked me my thought about moving out of the division, I brought up your argument OFFie. I don't want to be pitied and moved out of the "big boy" division just so we can get a chance to contend. If we're going to win, we're going to step on the throats of the Red Sox and Yankees to do it. No special treatment.

...I didn't think it would happen this year but we're certainly positioned for it.

[OFFNY]

Whenever my non-Oriole friends asked me my thought about moving out of the division, I brought up your argument OFFie. I don't want to be pitied and moved out of the "big boy" division just so we can get a chance to contend. If we're going to win, we're going to step on the throats of the Red Sox and Yankees to do it. No special treatment.

...I didn't think it would happen this year but we're certainly positioned for it.

Thanks, Isestrex.

[orayole]

Whenever my non-Oriole friends asked me my thought about moving out of the division, I brought up your argument OFFie. I don't want to be pitied and moved out of the "big boy" division just so we can get a chance to contend. If we're going to win, we're going to step on the throats of the Red Sox and Yankees to do it. No special treatment.

...I didn't think it would happen this year but we're certainly positioned for it.

If we got rid of divisions then everyone would have to deal with the same teams.

[GoldGlove21]

If we got rid of divisions then everyone would have to deal with the same teams.

I just do not understand divisions and the real value of having them outside of familiarity. I think baseball should be open in the AL and NL with the top X amount of teams making the playoffs.