Get ready to fork over $10 million for Bundy...

[Stotle]

No major league contract for Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, Manny Machado, Beckham, Hosmer, Moustakas, Justin Upton, Matt Bush.

I believe the last HS'er to get a major league contract was Delmon Young in 2003:

Not a bust. But not a Ray either. He's still trying to establish himself as an everyday standout who can stay healthy. This is 2011.

Harper got an ML deal. Porcello got an ML deal. You're also making the error of assuming that "top high school talents" are all the same, from a developmental standpoint. Just because they were all signed in the early first round doesn't mean their drafting team thinks they will shoot through the system without issue. Further, A Bundy contract of over $7 million would outdistance the contracts of every one of the players you mention except for Harper (who 1) did receive an ML deal, and 2) had already shown success at the JuCo level).

Regarding Young, he was held back at AAA an extra 1.5 years by Tampa, who was trying to time his promotion to the bigs with a number of other players in order to make the most out of his service time. He was certainly ready for ML ball far before he was promoted.

I guess there could be some truth to that if, when he got to the majors, he'd still have options available. Aren't some injuries along the way a likely thing? Shouldn't we understand that, despite our hopes and scouting reports and whatever else, he may have a long adjustment to facing a high level talent every at bat?

Obviously the preference is always to not have to give out an ML contract. But if you are paying this kid $7 million dollars, you are doing it because he is one of the most polished and dominant HS arms you've ever seen, and you are confident he isn't going to need to climb one level at a time from Delmarva to Baltimore over the course of four seasons. If that's not who Baltimore thinks they have, they shouldn't be breaking records signing the kid.

[Stotle]

As expected Trea jumped to conclusions before all the information was out and came to the wrong conclusion.

The contract is rumored to be as follows

So its a 3.4 million bonus, which is around slot and he will have to be in the big leagues next season to have any chance to reaching the 7M mark.

Info is from Nick Piecoro on Twitter.

I fail to see how a major league deal with those types of stipulations is going to effect the Bundy negotiations.

A deal for a college arm drafted ahead of Bundy isn't going to set any standards for negotiation for the top HS arm. Arizona structured the deal this way in order to get MLB to sign off and anounce early. Arizona would like to potentially have Bauer in the pen if needed, come September.

[TGO]

We gave Loewen a MiL deal and everyone thought that was fine, that he would either make it or be a bust. I would argue that when he was promoted he was neither a bust nor ready for the Majors.

Bundy's a better pitcher but like RVAbird, I would prefer to avoid ML deals for high schoolers. But if that's what it takes at the end, do what you have to do.

[tilgaham]

What's the difference between a MiL deal and a ML day as it pertains to draft picks. What changes?

[Stotle]

I'd call it hedging your bets. I'm sure the O's hope that Bundy is something special. The reason they're going to have to pay him 6-7M bucks is because that's what the market dictates. That doesn't make Bundy a cinch to be ready for a ML rotation by age 21 or even age 22. And of course, we all know that injuries can slow down the process. The O's should try to avoid the ML contract if they can. There are more guys like Adam Loewen and Homer Bailey than there are like Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. That doesn't mean that Bundy isn't a 7M talent. It means that even top HS pitchers are no cinch to be ready for a ML rotation by a certain time frame no matter how talented they are. Heck, the Blue Jays wouldn't have been able to send Roy Halladay back to the minors to retool his mechanics, without risk of losing him, if he had been signed to a ML contract.

If you think he will require four years of development I'd argue that he isn't a $7+ million talent. I don't think you can have it both ways.

As I said, the preference is to not give out any ML deals. You want the flexibility if the worst happens. But it should be a non-issue when you are talking about a talent you like enough to give a $7+ million deal. I back off some on this stance if we're talking about a 2-sport HS kid that is getting a little more to buy away from another sport and, thus, will have his bonus broken up over five years.

[Stotle]

What's the difference between a MiL deal and a ML day as it pertains to draft picks. What changes?

Player goes onto your 40-man roster with a ML deal and starts using his option years.

[OriolesMagic83]

I would rather give the $10 mill to Bundy than to next year's Vlad/D. Lee. I think he'll sign for between $6 and 7 mill. No way the O's give him Strasburg/Harper money.

[RVAbird]

I could see the Orioles giving Bundy a 7.5-8 MM, upfront bonus to avoid the ML deal. Like I said on draft day, I think the Major League deal will be the biggest point of contention.

[tilgaham]

Player goes onto your 40-man roster with a ML deal and starts using his option years.

So what's the advantage to the rookie in signing a ML contract? Does he get to free agency sooner because the team is more inclined to bring him up?

[GoldGlove21]

I would rather give the $10 mill to Bundy than to next year's Vlad/D. Lee. I think he'll sign for between $6 and 7 mill. No way the O's give him Strasburg/Harper money.

The Orioles should be in the business of using that money wisely and I do not think giving Bundy a $10M bonus or giving the next Vlad/DLee combo $15M is a smart use of funding. Take the $18M and go get some high upside Dominican prospects and sign as many overslot guys as you like. The Orioles need young talent and most teams are not in a hurry to give it away anymore.

[Stotle]

So what's the advantage to the rookie in signing a ML contract? Does he get to free agency sooner because the team is more inclined to bring him up?

1. You are essentially guaranteed to be on the 40 man in 4 years, whereas without a ML deal you could go five years without being placed on the 40 and then another three option years before being placed on the 25-man (7 years total).

2. You set a higher baseline for arb years. Rather than getting $450K and change, you get whatever your negotiated deal is (though some quirky arb rules can negate some of this advantage).

[Stotle]

I could see the Orioles giving Bundy a 7.5-8 MM, upfront bonus to avoid the ML deal. Like I said on draft day, I think the Major League deal will be the biggest point of contention.

I don't understand why Baltimore would offer more without the benefit of being able to spread it out. Doesn't seem like AM's MO at all -- unnecessarily break signing bonus records by over a million dollars?

EDIT -- Not saying you are wrong, it would just be a headscratcher for me if they actually decided that was the preferable course of action.

[allstar1579]

I don't understand why Baltimore would offer more without the benefit of being able to spread it out. Doesn't seem like AM's MO at all -- unnecessarily break signing bonus records by over a million dollars?

EDIT -- Not saying you are wrong, it would just be a headscratcher for me if they actually decided that was the preferable course of action.

I could see if they thought he was 4 years or more away, but everyone I talk to think he's 2-3 tops. If he's going to move that quickly, like you said it helps the team to spread out the total instead of paying one lump. Beats me.

[Stotle]

I could see if they thought he was 4 years or more away, but everyone I talk to think he's 2-3 tops. If he's going to move that quickly, like you said it helps the team to spread out the total instead of paying one lump. Beats me.

If Baltimore believes he is four or more years away, there is zero reason to draft a slightly undersized, unprojectable arm. I mean, what would they expect to happen in those four years? He is rumored to be getting big money specifically because he has a varied repertoire, good command and he's physical. What aspect of his profile is supposed to develop on a 4+ year curve?

I generally dislike ML contracts for a HSer, but there is no way someone is getting $7 million from me if I believe there's a chance he's 4+ years away. That's crazy talk. And not that it's definitive, but the scouts I sat with at a game right after the draft all roundly agreed that they'd suggest to their SD that he get a ML deal if needed, because you don't draft someone 4th overall in a crazy deep draft and give him record money if you don't believe he is legitimately on par with the college kids.

[allstar1579]

If Baltimore believes he is four or more years away, there is zero reason to draft a slightly undersized, unprojectable arm. I mean, what would they expect to happen in those four years? He is rumored to be getting big money specifically because he has a varied repertoire, good command and he's physical. What aspect of his profile is supposed to develop on a 4+ year curve?

I generally dislike ML contracts for a HSer, but there is no way someone is getting $7 million from me if I believe there's a chance he's 4+ years away. That's crazy talk. And not that it's definitive, but the scouts I sat with at a game right after the draft all roundly agreed that they'd suggest to their SD that he get a ML deal if needed, because you don't draft someone 4th overall in a crazy deep draft and give him record money if you don't believe he is legitimately on par with the college kids.

I meant from a spreading the money out perspective, but you are absolutely right, if he were that much of a project, no way he should have gone where he was. I've said all along I think he's 2-2.5 years out, I just can't understand any other rationalization to fight for a minor league deal. If that's a huge impediment to getting one of the most talented pitchers in a long time signed then they really need to look at their priorities in negotiations.