Get ready to fork over $10 million for Bundy...

[TakebackOPACY]

Harper got an ML deal...

Regarding Young, he was held back at AAA an extra 1.5 years by Tampa, who was trying to time his promotion to the bigs with a number of other players in order to make the most out of his service time. He was certainly ready for ML ball far before he was promoted.

Obviously the preference is always to not have to give out an ML contract. But if you are paying this kid $7 million dollars, you are doing it because he is one of the most polished and dominant HS arms you've ever seen, and you are confident he isn't going to need to climb one level at a time from Delmarva to Baltimore over the course of four seasons. If that's not who Baltimore thinks they have, they shouldn't be breaking records signing the kid.

Oops. Sorry about getting the Harper contract wrong.

My point isn't that the O's should expect Bundy to take four years to develop. My point is that things happen. On a percentage scale 1-100, what are the chances the O's won't need more time? What are the chances he isn't slowed by nagging injuries (not bad enough to give him an extra option year)? Or what are the chances he doesn't start to nibble when he has to face 'AA' or higher batters every at bat? What are the chances the O's won't care that they have no options to have him go back and work on something when he's 22 years old? Are we 90% sure that a major league contract is fine? 95% sure? 75% sure?

I don't claim to have any idea the answer to those questions. I would respect your educated opinion greatly, but it's still just an educated opinion.

I am definitely jaded by watching Loewen get promoted after walking 6/9ip because, heck, he's Adam Loewen and he has a major league contract and ohhh he'll be fine. I'm also jaded by watching young 20-something year-old pitchers already at the AAA level rise to be amongst the Top 5 Prospects in all of baseball... and then benefit from significantly more experience in the minors over several seasons.

I meant from a spreading the money out perspective, but you are absolutely right, if he were that much of a project, no way he should have gone where he was. I've said all along I think he's 2-2.5 years out, I just can't understand any other rationalization to fight for a minor league deal. If that's a huge impediment to getting one of the most talented pitchers in a long time signed then they really need to look at their priorities in negotiations.

I think I'm assuming he'll sign either contract but the dollar value will have to be higher if it's a MiL deal. In any reasonable hypothetical I could come up with, I'd lean heavily toward the MiL deal.

Despite my stance, I'm intrigued by what seems to be increasingly common in these ML deals... it looks like some of these major league deals (like Harper's) are five years and not four. Maybe that's always been commonplace and I just didn't take notice. If they're really that sure that a ML deal is okay, at least lock him up for what they hope and apparently believe will likely be a value in year five. If he's as good as advertised as soon as advertised, that probably slows the growth in his contract through the late arbitration years too.

[BaysoxFan39]

What I'd like to know is why signing a high schooler from the US for $10M less risky than signing five high school school kids out of the DO for $10M? :scratchchinhmm:

You are spot on. McPhail made a fool out of himself with those astonishing comments about scouting players in Latin America on 105.7.

[Stotle]

Oops. Sorry about getting the Harper contract wrong.

My point isn't that the O's should expect Bundy to take four years to develop. My point is that things happen. On a percentage scale 1-100, what are the chances the O's won't need more time? What are the chances he isn't slowed by nagging injuries (not bad enough to give him an extra option year)? Or what are the chances he doesn't start to nibble when he has to face 'AA' or higher batters every at bat? What are the chances the O's won't care that they have no options to have him go back and work on something when he's 22 years old? Are we 90% sure that a major league contract is fine? 95% sure? 75% sure?

I don't claim to have any idea the answer to those questions. I would respect your educated opinion greatly, but it's still just an educated opinion.

I am definitely jaded by watching Loewen get promoted after walking 6/9ip because, heck, he's Adam Loewen and he has a major league contract and ohhh he'll be fine. I'm also jaded by watching young 20-something year-old pitchers already at the AAA level rise to be amongst the Top 5 Prospects in all of baseball... and then benefit from significantly more experience in the minors over several seasons.

I think I'm assuming he'll sign either contract but the dollar value will have to be higher if it's a MiL deal. In any reasonable hypothetical I could come up with, I'd lean heavily toward the MiL deal.

Despite my stance, I'm intrigued by what seems to be increasingly common in these ML deals... it looks like some of these major league deals (like Harper's) are five years and not four. Maybe that's always been commonplace and I just didn't take notice. If they're really that sure that a ML deal is okay, at least lock him up for what they hope and apparently believe will likely be a value in year five. If he's as good as advertised as soon as advertised, that probably slows the growth in his contract through the late arbitration years too.

My only point is that if you are concerned about these potential stumbles, you shouldn't be giving him this much money anyway. You earn this bonus by being a young amateur that is more advanced and talented than your peers.

Regarding contract length, it is irrelevant for purposes of option years. He will make his minor league contract until he is placed on the 25-man, then his ML salary would kick in. So whether it's four or five years, you still only have the 3 technical (4 in practice) years available to keep him in the minors.

[RVAbird]

I don't understand why Baltimore would offer more without the benefit of being able to spread it out. Doesn't seem like AM's MO at all -- unnecessarily break signing bonus records by over a million dollars?

EDIT -- Not saying you are wrong, it would just be a headscratcher for me if they actually decided that was the preferable course of action.

You more or less answered the question in your response above - to set a lower precedent for arbitration and allow greater roster flexibility (and, conservatively, to avoid giving a HS pitcher a Major League deal). While MacPhail is fiscally conservative, he's also incredibly conventional w/r/t policy.

Not saying it's the right course of action at all, just something I could see happening. In the end, BAL caving on ML contract might help facilitate a reasonable deal, so I could see it going either way.

[Stotle]

You more or less answered the question in your response above - to set a lower precedent for arbitration and allow greater roster flexibility (and, conservatively, to avoid giving a HS pitcher a Major League deal). While MacPhail is fiscally conservative, he's also incredibly conventional w/r/t policy.

Not saying it's the right course of action at all, just something I could see happening. In the end, BAL caving on ML contract might help facilitate a reasonable deal, so I could see it going either way.

I guess I just don't see MacPhail going above and beyond ML slot recommendations and then tacking on another $1M to avoid a ML deal. Breaking a non-ML bonus deal by $1M+ isn't something I'd expect.

[Dipper9]

With everything else I see going on with this team, I fully expect that we do not get Bundy signed. And even if by some chance we do, our development side will screw him up. And if, by some act of God, we get him signed, and he makes it through development unscathed, then he will be rushed to Baltimore and get torched early, lose his confidence, and go the route of Big Ben McDonald!

Its the NEW Oriole Way!

[Hutman]

Bundy is a must sign, we are in a bad way organizationally. He projects to be a special talent like Machado and we are a system that is devoid of talent. Its up to JJ to

negotitate the best deal he can for the O's, but in the end, failure to sign him is not an option.

[TakebackOPACY]

With everything else I see going on with this team, I fully expect that we do not get Bundy signed. And even if by some chance we do, our development side will screw him up. And if, by some act of God, we get him signed, and he makes it through development unscathed, then he will be rushed to Baltimore and get torched early, lose his confidence, and go the route of Big Ben McDonald!

Its the NEW Oriole Way!

When MacPhail left the Cubs, the reputation was that he gets his guys signed but what else does he do? While that referred more to retaining standout veterans, these negotiations are one of the things MacPhail is apparently good at.

Kerry Wood (4th)

Jon Garland (10th)

Corey Patterson (3rd)

Luis Montanez (3rd)

Mark Prior (2nd)

Ryan Harvey (6th)

Wieters (5th)

Matusz (4th)

Hobgood (5th)

Machado (3rd)

Bundy (4th)

Say what you will, MacPhail's time at GM has lead to a lot of experience signing overall Top 10 picks. :scratchchinhmm:

[RVAbird]

I guess I just don't see MacPhail going above and beyond ML slot recommendations and then tacking on another $1M to avoid a ML deal. Breaking a non-ML bonus deal by $1M+ isn't something I'd expect.

Meh. Like I said, a bonus in the neighborhood of 6.5 MM should be enough to get it done. If AM holds firm in negotiations (which, to his credit, he has a knack for doing, even if sometimes to his detriment) you might see a MiL deal with that kind of bonus. As I said on draft day, though, the ML deal will be a sticking point in negotiations. You don't have to like it or agree with the logic behind either side, but from what I understand the Bundy's are asking for it and the Orioles don't want to give it. I'll just stay out of the speculation from now on. The details will be settled for us in the next two weeks.

[Stotle]

Meh. Like I said, a bonus in the neighborhood of 6.5 MM should be enough to get it done. If AM holds firm in negotiations (which, to his credit, he has a knack for doing, even if sometimes to his detriment) you might see a MiL deal with that kind of bonus. As I said on draft day, though, the ML deal will be a sticking point in negotiations. You don't have to like it or agree with the logic behind either side, but from what I understand the Bundy's are asking for it and the Orioles don't want to give it. I'll just stay out of the speculation from now on. The details will be settled for us in the next two weeks.

Speculation is what the convos about. I don't have any issue with it. I was just commenting that it didn't make intuitive sense to me that Baltimore would volunteer more money in order to avoid a ML deal once we are already talking about topping what Taillon got. I know the Bundy camp announced their desire for a ML deal before the draft. I know Baltimore doesn't like to give them out. But once you're climbing into record breaking bonus territory, it better be for someone you think will be in Baltimore by 2015. That's all I'm saying.

[Dipper9]

Well, 4 days left. Monday night should be very interesting!

[Can_of_corn]

Well, 4 days left. Monday night should be very interesting!

Probably, then again the deal might be signed and sitting on MLB's desk awaiting approval.

[Frobby]

Happily, I will be away on vacation with my family on Monday rather than sitting by my computer hitting "refresh" every 30 seconds between 11 p.m. and midnight.

[Frobby]

Speculation is what the convos about. I don't have any issue with it. I was just commenting that it didn't make intuitive sense to me that Baltimore would volunteer more money in order to avoid a ML deal once we are already talking about topping what Taillon got. I know the Bundy camp announced their desire for a ML deal before the draft. I know Baltimore doesn't like to give them out. But once you're climbing into record breaking bonus territory, it better be for someone you think will be in Baltimore by 2015. That's all I'm saying.

The problem with this approach is that it leaves very little room for error in case of an injury. It also ties up a spot on the 40-man roster for a couple of years when there's no chance the player is getting to the majors by then. So, while I have little doubt that a healthy Dylan Bundy is in Baltimore by 2015, there are other things to consider.

[Stotle]

The problem with this approach is that it leaves very little room for error in case of an injury. It also ties up a spot on the 40-man roster for a couple of years when there's no chance the player is getting to the majors by then. So, while I have little doubt that a healthy Dylan Bundy is in Baltimore by 2015, there are other things to consider.

I understand why you and others might think this way, but I don't feel these are practical concerns when deciding what to dig in on and what to cave on in a negotiation. If you believe Baltimore has all the leverage and is comfortable with a take-it-or-leave-it position, fine. If there is honestly a choice between Deal One and an ML contract and Deal Two for $1.5 MM more and no ML contract, I can't imagine anyone in the industry choosing Deal Two. It just doesn't make sense.

I think (and it's nothing more than informed conjecture) most SDs would risk the worst case scenario you are describing in order to 1) keep that $1.5 MM available for signing someone like Delmonico, and 2) to not set a "total package" higher than it needs to be for your first round pick (precedent setting moves matter).