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2012 Baseball Hall of Fame: Barry Larkin, SS Cincinnati

BaltimoreTerp

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Watching ATH and Woody Paige yesterday, who is an unapologetic tool, reinforced everything that is wrong with the process. Hearing a hall voter essentially say that if I'm convinced in my own mind that someone did it, without any evidence, and with no set of criteria or objectiveness, then I will not vote for them is an absolute joke and a disgrace.

Any process that lets Woody Paige have a vote and (insert any one of literally 500,000 other more qualified people) not is really broken. Paige is a prime example of someone who writes and says crazy stuff so that people talk about the crazy stuff HOF voters do so that the process gets a lot of attention so Woody Paige's employers will sell more advertising. I don't think a lot of the BBWAA really cares who's in the Hall, just so long as people talk about it and their employers make more money.

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MikeAD Hangout Grand Counsel

MikeAD

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One more thought... anybody else notice Larkin had a huge spike in homers the same year and same age as Brady Anderson? I guess he does have a reputation for being as nice a guy as Brian Roberts, so he couldn't have cheated...

There should be some sort of internet pop up that comes up when steroids are discussed. Anytime someone mentions the BAD GUYS pictures of Gary Gates swatting at fastballs should pop up.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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It's not cut-and-dried. Morris had 80% of Well's career value, but Morris had maybe four seasons better than or equal to Wells' best.

Sure, but Wells will be lucky to stay on the ballot after year one and Morris very well may get elected.

Now if I used Kevin Brown, a pitcher who received no support, I think it would be cut and dry.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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If you take salary out of the equation, I'd rather have Morris' career. Bb-reference and fangraphs may rank Wells ahead of Morris, and that's fine, but I'd rather have 3 rings to 1 and pitch a 10 inning game 7 win in the WS. Wells had a great career and had the perfect game (which I believe was on the same day as the Brandi Chastain World Cup game), but I'd take Morris' career if I had to choose.

Wells won 2 rings and played for arguably the best team ever. He also pitched better than Morris in the postseason.

You interpreted my question differently than my intention, though. Your way can go back to that Hairston versus Roberts debate. So I'm not asking whose career you'd rather have due to titles or whatever, I'm asking who has the better resume considering just their play.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I guess that's plausible. He's not in the abosolute-no-doubt-inner-circle range, and if someone could really prove he was, say, -77 instead of +77 with the glove he'd move down in the gray area. I don't know, I'd have to see some revised data.

Even if he was -77 with the glove he'd be 10 or 15 wins better than Jim Rice or Jack Morris.

I think you use the best information you have. Used to be folks thought all kinds of crazy stuff.

Yea, it's been pretty well established that Morris didn't "pitch to the score" and really bear down when needed. Just look at bb-ref. His ERA when given 0-2 runs of support was half a run worse than when given 3-5.

Yeah I don't know either. Hard enough figuring this out with up to date metrics. I do think TZ rewards guys like Trammel and Ripken who get a lot of chances. I know TZ makes adjustments for pitching and field but I don't know how good they are. BP's FRAA (fielding runs above average) lists Trammell at minus 25 and Ripken at minus 21 for their careers. They both do much better by TZ. One think I look at (pre uzr anyways) is the RF9 (particularly for IF's) to see how well it correlates with TZ. Both Ripken (who I think was overrated defensively) and Trammell had pretty average RF9's. I'm not sure if BP's FRAA encompasses their new rating system or not. From one of Tangos' blogs it sound like FRAA is pretty aggressive on the adjustments but it doesn't sound like he knows what they really do.

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BaltimoreTerp Hangout Grand Counsel

BaltimoreTerp

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15836

Whatever the reason, Morris is now a test case to see if a candidate with a strong enough narrative, no matter how groundless, imaginary, or overblown it might be, can make the Hall simply because his supporters repeated it so often and so loudly that one morning the world woke up and found it was true.

Long article, but fantastic analysis.

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