Duke vs Maryland

[Brendan25]

When and Where: Gary Williams Court(!!!) at the Comcast Center, College Park, Md.; game tips at 9:00, but ceremony starts at 8:40

Where to Watch: ESPN, which should also have at least some of the court-naming ceremony in its pre-game coverage

Line: Vegas: -11.5 KenPom: Duke by 13

Notes/Storylines:

* The Gary Game. That's how I've been referring to it over the past few months, ever since they decided this would be the first game played on the newly-minted Gary Williams Court. It'll be a heartwarming ceremony, surely, and is a wholly-deserved honor. Hopefully it'll help carry Maryland to an unexpected upset win.

* Trends. Maryland has lost the last three to Duke and has dropped nine of the last ten to the Blue Devils. Also of note: with a hat-tip to Patrick Stevens, the last eighteen games have been decided by a margin of six points or greater. You have to go back to a 75-70 Duke win in February of 2003 to find the last really close game.

* Alex Len. Word is that he'll play after spraining his ankle against Temple, but we have no idea how much or how effective he'll be. You'd think that getting a strong performance out of Len would be critical to Maryland's upset chances.

* Get there (or turn on your TVs) early. Can't stress this enough: the court-naming ceremony begins around 8:40. Be seated by then, or have your TVs on to see whatever it is the four-letter network will show you.

Star-divide

The Opponent (An Overview): Duke is as bad as they've been in years, sure, but that's still not all that bad. They enter the game 16-3 with wins over Kansas and Michigan State. Of course, they also got pounded by Ohio State, lost to Temple in Philly, only beat Virginia by 3 in Cameron, and did just lose to Florida State. All of those teams are much better than Maryland, but it should be an indication that, no, they're not unbeatable. They have really strong play 2-5, but do lack a true point guard. They're still a great offensive unit, but there have been defensive question marks all year, especially in defending the interior and forcing turnovers. They're #2 in RPI, #14 in KenPom, and #10 in Sagarin. They're very fast-paced and rely heavily on the three-pointer, and yes, I know I just described every Duke team of the past decade.

Expected Starting Fives:

Maryland Duke

Pe?Shon Howard (So., 6-3) Seth Curry (Jr., 6-2)

Terrell Stoglin (So., 6-0) Austin Rivers (Fr., 6-4)

Sean Mosley (Sr., 6-4) Andre Dawkins (Jr., 6-4)

James Padgett (Jr., 6-8) Miles Plumlee (Sr., 6-10)

Alex Len (Fr., 7-1) Mason Plumlee (So., 6-10)

That should be it, unless K really changes things up in the wake of their loss to FSU or Len can't go for Maryland. The obvious potential change for Duke is Ryan Kelly slotting in for Miles Plumlee, but Miles has started the last two so that's what I'm going off. As it stands, the question is (as always) who does Stoglin cover? You'd think he'd slide over and man up with Curry, because you don't want to have him on Rivers (or do you? he has a tendency to get a chip on his shoulder) and Dawkins has too much size. But we'll see. Otherwise, Maryland matches up with that lineup fairly well.

Four Factors:

College Basketball

Thank God for getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds. Safe to say that if Maryland's going to have any shot at this one, they'll need to not only do both of those at normal or higher-than-normal rates, but they'll also need to convert those opportunities more than they've done in the past.

Matchup to Watch: If you're a long-time follower of the blog, you may know that my favorite type of player is the undersized chucker, the little guy with an uncanny basketball sense and knack for getting buckets. Guys like Scottie Reynolds and Dominic James. My least favorite type of player, conversely, is the guy with all the physical tools the undersized chucker lacks, but the same mentality. The player who could elevate his game to unseen heights but instead limits himself by playing at being Allen Iverson. Tonight, these two meet. Terrell Stoglin vs. Austin Rivers. The battle of the chuckers. (Or, *ahem*, "volume scorers.") Please, Terrell, for all that is right in the basketball world, leave tonight victorious.

Prediction: I think most people have come to the realization that Maryland is very unlikely to win this game. I have. But screw it, we're a sports blog and this is the Gary Game and it's Duke at Comcast, so I'll say Maryland by 4 because why not.

Sidenote: because there will be thousands of comments in the GameThread tonight, I'm not going to open it too early. So this is your discussion place for much of the day.

Source: http://www.testudotimes.com/2012/1/25/2731964/maryland-terrapins-duke-blue-devils-basketball-preview-tv-info-gary-williams-terrell-stoglin#comments

Completely stoked for tonight. I will be in attendance for the first time for a Duke game.

[glenn__davis]

Have a good time! Never been to a MD-Duke game, it would definitely be on my sports bucket list though.

In what seems to be the theme of the year, I think the Terps have a chance, but I just don't see them having enough. Stoglin will have to be red-hot and they'll have to get significant contributions from someone else. Padgett, maybe?

I think Duke maintains a relatively comfortable 8 to 10 point lead throughout and ultimately pulls away in the final minutes.

[Brendan25]

Have a good time! Never been to a MD-Duke game, it would definitely be on my sports bucket list though.

In what seems to be the theme of the year, I think the Terps have a chance, but I just don't see them having enough. Stoglin will have to be red-hot and they'll have to get significant contributions from someone else. Padgett, maybe?

I think Duke maintains a relatively comfortable 8 to 10 point lead throughout and ultimately pulls away in the final minutes.

I feel like Faust is slowly getting better game by game. If he could put up 10-15 it would be huge. Mosley has to be solid also.

[adamwolff11]

I really hope ESPN somehow shows the ceremony.

[Sports Guy]

Very simple for tonight...MD has to be able to be a dribble, drive and kick out team.

They don't have the size/talent to match Duke inside but they have the quickness and athleticism on the perimeter to get into the lane vs Duke's poorish perimeter defense. By doing that, they will have oppurtunities to score in the lane and kick out to wide open 3 pt shooters.

MD must knock down shots and a lot of teams are shooting high percentages vs that Duke defense, so MD has a chance.

[Danielos38]

I was at Comcast at 4:30 am this morning. LETS GO.

[Danielos38]

Have a good time! Never been to a MD-Duke game, it would definitely be on my sports bucket list though.

In what seems to be the theme of the year, I think the Terps have a chance, but I just don't see them having enough. Stoglin will have to be red-hot and they'll have to get significant contributions from someone else. Padgett, maybe?

I think Duke maintains a relatively comfortable 8 to 10 point lead throughout and ultimately pulls away in the final minutes.

QUICK. You can go tonight if you want (From the Maryland Athletics Facebook)

FANS! 50 tickets to tonight's game will be released for sale at 11 a.m. These tickets were returned from various allotments and other internal needs. Tickets are upper level/$55 each. Purchase at umterps.com or call 1-800-462-TERP.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Very simple for tonight...MD has to be able to be a dribble, drive and kick out team.

They don't have the size/talent to match Duke inside but they have the quickness and athleticism on the perimeter to get into the lane vs Duke's poorish perimeter defense. By doing that, they will have oppurtunities to score in the lane and kick out to wide open 3 pt shooters.

MD must knock down shots and a lot of teams are shooting high percentages vs that Duke defense, so MD has a chance.

Maryland is poor at outside shooting.

This one will probably be a double digit dook win unless something very strange happens.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Maryland is poor at outside shooting.

This one will probably be a double digit dook win unless something very strange happens.

Gary Williams always seemed to have a way of making "something very strange" happen

Hopefully something rubs off on Turgeon tonight.

[Brendan25]

Very simple for tonight...MD has to be able to be a dribble, drive and kick out team.

They don't have the size/talent to match Duke inside but they have the quickness and athleticism on the perimeter to get into the lane vs Duke's poorish perimeter defense. By doing that, they will have oppurtunities to score in the lane and kick out to wide open 3 pt shooters.

MD must knock down shots and a lot of teams are shooting high percentages vs that Duke defense, so MD has a chance.

Maryland is poor at outside shooting.

This one will probably be a double digit dook win unless something very strange happens.

Same response to both of these questions. The key is Stoglin, and then Mosley and Faust from deep. Stoglin has to be able to penetrade (which I think he will), but the key is that he has to be able to kick it out to Mosley, Faust, and maybe even Parker. And depend on them to hit the open jumper if it's there.

[Lucky Jim]

Same response to both of these questions. The key is Stoglin, and then Mosley and Faust from deep. Stoglin has to be able to penetrade (which I think he will), but the key is that he has to be able to kick it out to Mosley, Faust, and maybe even Parker. And depend on them to hit the open jumper if it's there.

That is incredibly bleak. If this is the key - or Maryland's only hope - then they're on a thin, thin reed.

I actually think they need good guard-play, decent ball protection, a good game from Stoglin. But the key is going to Pankey, Padgett and Len.

[Brendan25]

That is incredibly bleak. If this is the key - or Maryland's only hope - then they're on a thin, thin reed.

I actually think they need good guard-play, decent ball protection, a good game from Stoglin. But the key is going to Pankey, Padgett and Len.

I think on defense they are a big key, but I think offensively our wing players (Mosley, Faust, and Parker) are going to need to pick it up

[glenn__davis]

QUICK. You can go tonight if you want (From the Maryland Athletics Facebook)

Wow - that is extremely tempting, and thanks for the head's up, but there's no way I could swing getting my kids taken care of that quickly and everything. Do you know if this is something they often do on game day, or is this just a one-time thing? Even in the upper level, $55 seems like a bargain.

[Danielos38]

Wow - that is extremely tempting, and thanks for the head's up, but there's no way I could swing getting my kids taken care of that quickly and everything. Do you know if this is something they often do on game day, or is this just a one-time thing? Even in the upper level, $55 seems like a bargain.

Don't think that they usually do this kind of thing. $55 is definitely not a bad price, especially for this game. There really aren't any bad seats at Comcast. Do whatever you can to come to this game... it's going to be an unreal environment!

[Floater]

I haven't been to a game there since Duke MD 2010. Awesome game. 90 Bucks a ticket which I bought online. I'd love to go tonight for Gary and all but I probably won't go to another game until they are a top 25 team. I think this game could get ugly fast but I sure as hell hope I'm dead wrong.