Where some previous unsigned Orioles draftees were drafted in 2012

[MatthewW]

Where some previous unsigned Orioles draftees were drafted in 2012:

2011:                                     2012:12th Rd OF Jason Coats (JR)               29th Rd - White Sox13th Rd OF Derek Jones (JR)                8th Rd - Rockies17th Rd RHP Nick Carmichael (J2)          24th Rd - Tigers20th Rd OF Mark Wik (J1)                  21st Rd - Astros23rd Rd OF Adam Matthews (JR)             29th Rd - Reds30th Rd SS Mike Reynolds (J2)             20th Rd - Yankees35th Rd RHP Lindsey Caughel (JR)          23rd Rd - Dodgers39th Rd C Patrick Cantwell (JR)            3rd Rd - Rangers44th Rd LHP Patrick Merkling (J2)         18th Rd - Marlins49th Rd RHP Ronnie Shaban (JR)            33rd Rd - Cardinals2009: 33rd Rd OF Tyler Naquin (HS)               1st Rd - Indians (15th Overall)35th Rd C Jeremy Lucas (HS)               12th Rd - Indians36th Rd RHP Scott Firth (HS)              32nd Rd - Phillies

Not sure what kind of numbers Cantwell or Naquin were looking at to sign back in 2011 and 2009 respectively... but it seems like they would have been two real nice additions.

On another note, didn't Coats turn down third round money from the Orioles last year??? At least he got his degree, but initially it looks like going back to school cost him a few hundred thousand dollars (which isn't as bad Diekroeger costing himself close to $2M... I don't know how any kid can really walk away from that kind of money)...

*EDIT: I thought I had included 'I know this happens to every team', but apparently I did not, so... I know this happens to every team.

[GoldGlove21]

Where some previous unsigned Orioles draftees were drafted in 2012:

2011:                                     2012:12th Rd OF Jason Coats (JR)               29th Rd - White Sox13th Rd OF Derek Jones (JR)                8th Rd - Rockies17th Rd RHP Nick Carmichael (J2)          24th Rd - Tigers20th Rd OF Mark Wik (J1)                  21st Rd - Astros23rd Rd OF Adam Matthews (JR)             29th Rd - Reds30th Rd SS Mike Reynolds (J2)             20th Rd - Yankees35th Rd RHP Lindsey Caughel (JR)          23rd Rd - Dodgers39th Rd C Patrick Cantwell (JR)            3rd Rd - Rangers44th Rd LHP Patrick Merkling (J2)         18th Rd - Marlins49th Rd RHP Ronnie Shaban (JR)            33rd Rd - Cardinals2009: 33rd Rd OF Tyler Naquin (HS)               1st Rd - Indians (15th Overall)35th Rd C Jeremy Lucas (HS)               12th Rd - Indians36th Rd RHP Scott Firth (HS)              32nd Rd - Phillies

Not sure what kind of numbers Cantwell or Naquin were looking at to sign back in 2011 and 2009 respectively... but it seems like they would have been two real nice additions.

On another note, didn't Coats turn down third round money from the Orioles last year??? At least he got his degree, but initially it looks like going back to school cost him a few hundred thousand dollars (which isn't as bad Diekroeger costing himself close to $2M... I don't know how any kid can really walk away from that kind of money)...

So of the 13 guys mentioned I only feel like we missed on 2-3 of them based on when they were drafted at the following year. Every team is going to have these lists, but it is almost impossible to put every potential prospect with a big head in a higher than slot position. I would be more interested in comparing the Orioles 2012 draft class in terms of where another team drafted our player in the past (if applicable) to see how we did and what others may have lost out on.

[Tony-OH]

These lists are always interesting, thanks for putting it together. Saying that, looks like the Jason Coats cost himself a couple hundred grand. I can't remember the exact circumstances but if I remember right, the kid wanted to sign but his mother wouldn't let him because she wanted him to stick around and get his degree. I know Jordan was kinda taken aback that a 21-year old wasn't capable of making his own decision at that point in his life, but apparently what Mom says goes. If he signs with the White Sox, he'll now go in as a late round senior sign and will have the odds stacked against him badly. Maybe Mom was right, maybe she knew he wasn't good enough and knew educations was the key.

Sometimes Mom does know best!

[Frobby]

That's quite a jump for Cantwell -- 39th round to 3rd. I can't find him on the BA top 500. What's the scoop here?

[Vandy]

Must be a signability issue. Texas also made a pretty sizable overdraft on Colin Wiles in the supplemental round as well.

[bobmc]

That's quite a jump for Cantwell -- 39th round to 3rd. I can't find him on the BA top 500. What's the scoop here?

With the new rules, might teams come to a "handshake agreement" with a prospect to draft him higher and then sign low for the slot but take more than he would get at a lower draft position? Then they have more $$$ to use for over slots later on?

[jcarm]

With the new rules, might teams come to a "handshake agreement" with a prospect to draft him higher and then sign low for the slot but take more than he would get at a lower draft position? Then they have more $$$ to use for over slots later on?

Apparently that is exactly what is happening in some circumstances. See this article from BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/talking-with-seniors-who-signed-cheap/

Here is what BA said about Cantwell:

Not in Baseball America's Top 500. Ranked 14 in N.Y.

Cantwell is a good defender with an above-average arm. His bat is questionable, but he could be serviceable as a backup.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2012name.php?lname=cantwell

[Crazysilver03]

Apparently that is exactly what is happening in some circumstances. See this article from BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/talking-with-seniors-who-signed-cheap/

Here is what BA said about Cantwell:

Not in Baseball America's Top 500. Ranked 14 in N.Y.

Cantwell is a good defender with an above-average arm. His bat is questionable, but he could be serviceable as a backup.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2012name.php?lname=cantwell

Wow I didnt realize some of these guys were signing so cheaply.

[MatthewW]

I'd love to know what an education in Stanford is worth both in terms of tuition and future earnings. Sure, losing out on 2M seems dumb but I don't think it's as bad as it sounds.

I remember reading an article (sorry no link) that males with a bachelors degree are expected to earn $2.1M in their lifetime... generally speaking. Granted, a degree from Stanford will almost undoubtedly lead to earnings greater than the 'average' $2.1M number. Where as, a male with just a high school diploma is expected to earn something like $1.05M in their lifetime. The tuition for Stanford is now over $50K/yr in total costs. So that's $150K in 'free' education (Diekroeger is a junior). If you took $2M and you just wanted to take the most absolute 'safe' route and throw all the money in the bank with an 2% APY CD, in 47 years (by the time you are 65) that $2M signing bonus would turn into $5M+ if you don't touch a dollar of that initial investment.

So to sum it all up generally speaking, just a high school diploma gets you an expected future earnings of just over $1M, where a four year degree is $2.1M. Is future earnings from Stanford $3M more than the 'average' four year degree, to match the $5M+ that Diekroeger essentially turned down???

It's a very good argument and one that I know I am not smart enough to give a definitive answer to...

*EDIT: I'm not even going to try and figure out the tax situation on this...