Matt Hobgood - is there hope? (No, there is not. Indy League bound.)

[csgordos]

ALL surgeries of the shoulder in pitchers are serious. No exceptions. In order of least severe to most severe, my classification would be (single injury): A clavicle surgery is not bad as it relates to the shoulder (Grenkie). A fractured scapula (Ainsworth) is worse. An abnormal cyst or non-cancerous tumor in the shoulder. Then you get the loose capsule/subluxation injuries; torn labrums, torn rotator cuff, and the worst for pitchers: multi-directional instability following a traumatic dislocation (which always involves a label tear) with rotator cuff involvement.

So in my opinion Matt's surgery was and still is significant.

[sportsfan8703]

So given that we are about 1/4 of the way through the season how far do you guys think Hobgood has put himself back on the map? I'd say top 15 easily but you could make an argument for higher. If he just stays healthy this year, next year he could really produce results, especially if he remains in the pen, he could move quickly with his stuff. My top ten now...

1. Bundy

2. Gausman

3. Schoop

4. Ed Rod

5. Delmonico

6. Hader

7. Wright

8. Urrutia

9. Hoes

10. Hobgood

[skanar]

So given that we are about 1/4 of the way through the season how far do you guys think Hobgood has put himself back on the map? I'd say top 15 easily but you could make an argument for higher. If he just stays healthy this year, next year he could really produce results, especially if he remains in the pen, he could move quickly with his stuff. My top ten now...

1. Bundy

2. Gausman

3. Schoop

4. Ed Rod

5. Delmonico

6. Hader

7. Wright

8. Urrutia

9. Hoes

10. Hobgood

Why Rodriguez ahead of Delmonico?

Rest of the top 10 is pretty reasonable, but I'm pretty sure I'll take guys like Tim Berry, Zach Davies, and Christian Walker ahead of Hobgood, good news notwithstanding.

[weams]

Why Rodriguez ahead of Delmonico?

Rest of the top 10 is pretty reasonable, but I'm pretty sure I'll take guys like Tim Berry, Zach Davies, and Christian Walker ahead of Hobgood, good news notwithstanding.

Matt Hobgood got pounded for four runs in an inning and a third today.

[xian4]

He did tweet, saying he was tired before the match after a 9 hour road trip. perhaps, that was a factor or he just couldn't locate his pitches after his ramp up in vela.

[Gurgi]

A little disappointing that he got hit but as long as he's healthy, I think he'll keep getting better over the course of the season.

As long as he doesnt pull a Jim Johnson and be horrible for two straight weeks we can take a clunker once in a while.

[Tony-OH]

This is a great list to emphasize the variable nature of pitching prospects. Wheeler has had a solid MiL career, was traded for Carlos Beltran, and continues to be one of the top prospects in baseball (probably will debut this year). Matzek developed control problems and fell off the BA list; he's young for his league, but isn't getting results and is walking everyone. Scheppers got moved to the bullpen and was mediocre last season though has gotten off to a great start this year. Purke got shoulder surgery and is still rehabbing; he may be back one day.

That's one (!) true success story and one partial success out of five pitchers (including Hobgood) who were all considered reasonable #5 overall picks. Two injuries and one (so far) control bust.

And even the success story has yet to get a MLB hitter out.

And this was all part of the Hobgood selection. It's not that Jordan didn't like any of the other guys that were available, he just thought they all had some red flags. If they all had the same price tag, I'm pretty sure Hobgood would not have been that pick, but I could be wrong. At the end of the day, if he had Hobgood rated about equal as Matzek and Wheller, why would have pay the premium price for the other two. He figured he could get Hobgood, Coffey and Ohlman for the price of Wheeler or Matzek. Now obviously things have not worked out, but from a scouting director's perspective, I can certainly understand where Jordan was coming from. He just didn't think Matzek and Wheeler were worth the premium price they were asking (they were asking for much more than they eventually got).

As the scouting director and the man in charge, Jordan is ultimately responsible for the success or failure of each draft class. The story has not been totally written yet on that draft class but to me, the logic was sound.

[Tony-OH]

So given that we are about 1/4 of the way through the season how far do you guys think Hobgood has put himself back on the map? I'd say top 15 easily but you could make an argument for higher. If he just stays healthy this year, next year he could really produce results, especially if he remains in the pen, he could move quickly with his stuff. My top ten now...

1. Bundy

2. Gausman

3. Schoop

4. Ed Rod

5. Delmonico

6. Hader

7. Wright

8. Urrutia

9. Hoes

10. Hobgood

Personally, I need to see a lot more and at a higher classification before Hobgood gets back on the radar as a top 10 prospect.

[Flosman]

Personally, I need to see a lot more and at a higher classification before Hobgood gets back on the radar as a top 10 prospect.

If we assume he bounces back from last night and ends up with similar numbers in Fredrick at the end of the season where would you put him? I think he would have to be discounted because the shoulder is a big question mark and will be for several years, IMO. But on the other hand he would be about where he should be age wise. I am interested to hear your thoughts?

[ironhorsecowboy]

Matt Hobgood got pounded for four runs in an inning and a third today.

The box score may read like Matt got pounded, however, the feedback that I have received does not indicate that he got pounded. Here is the line that I received...Three broken bat squib base hits...2 infield hits on slow rollers...One legit base hit and one walk... This indicates that Matt took the same approach that he was succesful with during his last outting against the same team. Pound the lower inner half of the zone... This time they were able to fight some of the pitches off and get a lucky bounce or two... There was no indication that the opposing team was getting any real good wood on the ball...

I heard that Matt's velocity remained about the same as his previous two outtings. Matt was hitting his spots and his change up and slider were both effective...

As long as his velocity remained the same and he was locating his pitches well, I am not too worried about an odd inning here and there... I seriously doubt that the organization see his performance as a negative...If anything, it is probably more a positive...

[ironhorsecowboy]

If we assume he bounces back from last night and ends up with similar numbers in Fredrick at the end of the season where would you put him? I think he would have to be discounted because the shoulder is a big question mark and will be for several years, IMO. But on the other hand he would be about where he should be age wise. I am interested to hear your thoughts?

Personally, I would like to see Matt moved to Frederick during the latter half of the season... I would anticipate that if he can bring the same poise and confidence to Frederick, that he would have some decent success... Maybe an ERA between 2-3...mixing in some good 4-5 inning appearences... Once he shows some success at Frederick, I would expect him to get shut down just to be err on the side of caution...

Where Matt ends up next season will be a mixture of how his offseason goes & business... I expect that he will be working with the Bundy's again this offseason and should show up to camp in reasonably good shape next spring...We also have to keep in mind the Rule 5 Business side of things...I expect the O's to make some manuevers as it relates to Rule 5...

Regardless where he is located to start next season, all I know is that 2014 will be a very big year as it relates to his future...

[ironhorsecowboy]

And this was all part of the Hobgood selection. It's not that Jordan didn't like any of the other guys that were available, he just thought they all had some red flags. If they all had the same price tag, I'm pretty sure Hobgood would not have been that pick, but I could be wrong. At the end of the day, if he had Hobgood rated about equal as Matzek and Wheller, why would have pay the premium price for the other two. He figured he could get Hobgood, Coffey and Ohlman for the price of Wheeler or Matzek. Now obviously things have not worked out, but from a scouting director's perspective, I can certainly understand where Jordan was coming from. He just didn't think Matzek and Wheeler were worth the premium price they were asking (they were asking for much more than they eventually got).

As the scouting director and the man in charge, Jordan is ultimately responsible for the success or failure of each draft class. The story has not been totally written yet on that draft class but to me, the logic was sound.

I definately agree with this take.

Wheeler would have been the pick I anticipated, but everyone knew there was a questionable price tag...If Matt would have shown up on day one with the type of stuff he has been showing of late, I doubt JJ would have taken any heat for the pick...I am sure the sentiment would actually be the opposite...

Matzek was a little more polarizing when it comes to the scouting community... Especially considering who his agent is.... I know there are more than a handful of scouts that predicted the struggles Matzek would have as a professional...Other scouts absolutely loved a mid-90's lefty... If he can get a grip on his mechanics and harness his pitches with control, he will be mighty scary...

[waroriole]

Where Matt ends up next season will be a mixture of how his offseason goes & business... I expect that he will be working with the Bundy's again this offseason and should show up to camp in reasonably good shape next spring...We also have to keep in mind the Rule 5 Business side of things...I expect the O's to make some manuevers as it relates to Rule 5...

Bundy may be having a different type of workout this offseason.

[Tony-OH]

If we assume he bounces back from last night and ends up with similar numbers in Fredrick at the end of the season where would you put him? I think he would have to be discounted because the shoulder is a big question mark and will be for several years, IMO. But on the other hand he would be about where he should be age wise. I am interested to hear your thoughts?

I really need to see him first. I'm always skeptical of velocity reports until I gun them myself or get confirmation from a scout outside of the organization. Even then, I want to see the movement and command and of course I need to see the secondary offerings. I'm glad to see he's done well this season (outside of yesterday) but it's a long road back to regain a true prospect standing. Also, if he doesn't move back into the rotation at some point, his prospect status will be limited as a reliever unless he can be projected to be a closer. In other words, it's too early for me to come up with any opinion other than its nice to see him have some success and to hear some nice velocity numbers.

[weams]

Bundy may be having a different type of workout this offseason.

Yes. I expect a lot of changes there.