Will the O's be willing to top 100 million for Chris Davis?

[Ommaculate]

He could have with those rules. Not today's where the team trading for the play only gets his service. Not his draft picks. Makes a difference in value. That said the Angels were stupid enough to trade Segura for a Greinke rental. So who knows. I say now, with the ability to place a Q offer, it is better to keep a guy.

The Angels were contenders so they were trying to go for it. The O's were rotten back then. There was no reason to let Ryan walk when the team is in last place with no hope for the near future. What sort of decision was that really?

[Can_of_corn]

The Angels were contenders so they were trying to go for it. The O's were rotten back then. There was no reason to let Ryan walk when the team is in last place with no hope for the near future. What sort of decision was that really?

It was all an elaborate ploy to stick the Jays with a crippling FA contract.

Layers within layers.

[weams]

The Angels were contenders so they were trying to go for it. The O's were rotten back then. There was no reason to let Ryan walk when the team is in last place with no hope for the near future. What sort of decision was that really?

I am not defending not trading BJ Ryan. The Orioles stupidly thought he would resign.

[Frobby]

It was better for the O's to not have traded Ryan when they knew he was going to walk? I find that hard to believe. He was having a great year and could have brought back a known stud.

You are probably not getting a "known stud" for a two-month rental of a relief pitcher.

[Ommaculate]

You are probably not getting a "known stud" for a two-month rental of a relief pitcher.

You mean like Davis for Koji?

[bdlj0887]

You mean like Davis for Koji?

"known stud" does not mean what you think it means, obviously.

[Can_of_corn]

You mean like Davis for Koji?

Davis was far from a "known stud".

[BohKnowsBmore]

You mean like Davis for Koji?

Exception, not the rule.

[Ommaculate]

Davis was far from a "known stud".

I meant he was a known stud in the minors.

[Can_of_corn]

I meant he was a known stud in the minors.

And if he hadn't had a checkered past, and a lack of options, in the majors he never would have been available.

Davis was a reclamation project.

[Frobby]

You mean like Davis for Koji?

In addition to the fact that Davis was not a "known" stud, Koji was not a two-month rental. He had an option for another year on his deal. And, the O's kicked in $2 mm. Similarly, we traded George Sherrill in the middle of an excellent season when he had one more year to go before he would be a free agent, and we got Josh Bell and Steve Johnson in return. No "known studs" there, at least by my definition. Obviously, the return would have been less if Sherrill had only two months to go before free agency.

[TradeAngelos]

I do not think you throw $100 mm at Chris Davis based on one season. .

2 seasons really.

.827 OPS with "only" 33HR is nothing to sneeze at.

Not like he is 31 or something either, at only 27 you could very well have a great hitter coming into his own not just some aberration. I'm willing to take my chances that the past 2 years weren't a fluke, because they probably weren't. If we give him a 5 year deal there is a high likelihood we get our money's worth as long as it isn't anything crazy.

It won't happen though, he will pay out the contract and that will be that.

[wildcard]

I do not think you throw $100 mm at Chris Davis based on one season. As I've mentioned before, Davis' situation is pretty analogous to Jose Bautista's when he suddenly hit 54 HR. The team then locked him up for 5 years, $64 mm with a team option for a 6th year at $14 mm. At the time, Bautista was two years older than Davis is now, but one year closer to free agency. So, the Jays were only buying out one arbitration year, not two. The deal has been a pretty good deal for the Jays, even though Bautista is not nearly as good now as he was in his 54 HR year, and still has two seasons to go on his deal.

My sense of Davis is that it's pretty likely that he has several 40+ HR seasons in him, but I'm not convinced he's really a .300 hitter. I think Ryan Howard (also a Boras client) may be a pretty good comp here. Howard had a .313/.425/.659 season with 58 HR at age 26 (one year younger than Davis), then followed that with three more 40+ HR seasons but his slash line for those three years was .266/.363/.565. fangraphs evaluates him as a $15 mm/yr player in that time frame, and a lot less since then.

Howard's contract history is worth reviewing. He earned $10 mm, a record for a first-time arbitration eligible (Super-Two), after back to back seasons in which he hit a total of 105 HR and had OPS of 1.084 and .976. The next year he had an .881 OPS with 48 HR and the Phillies bought out his three remaining arbitration years for $54 mm. Now he's in the middle of a 5 year, $125 mm deal that is working out terribly for the Phillies.

Based on this, I think the OP is correct that it takes $100mm+ to extend Chris Davis now, with Boras as his agent. If that's what it would take, I wouldn't do it. Maybe next year. On the other hand, if Davis would sign for something like 5/$80mm, I might bite.

You are smoking those funny cigarettes again, aren't you? The O's gave Jones 6 years but they will only give CD 5? Nobody is going for that.

Bautista situation is not close to CD's because CD is having his big year at 27. Bautista's was at 30. And he is from the Dominican where everybody lies about their age. No wonder he only got 5 years.

Howard's current contract was really 7 years because he signed it before the 2010 season but it didn't start until 2012. He was already signed for 19M and 20M for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. The total commitment at the time he signed was about 164M for 7 year.

Times have changed some. Pujols, Howard, Hamilton ARod. .. These are long term bad contracts. 7-10 year contracts should be harder to get in the future. But I can see CD getting the same number of years as Jones from the O's. I can see the O's going 110M.

What we don't know is what does the additional 25M in TV money do to the market. We know Boras will play it for all its worth. If the O's put 6/110 on the table will CD go for it or will Boras convince him to wait 2 years and go for a 10 year contract? Only time will tell.

[calmunderfire]

Davis is up for Arbitration after this season. It will be interesting to see what type of money he could command and ask for and how the team responds.

It's not the same as a FA where it's open to all teams, but if he doesn't receive a reasonable raise he's taking it to Arbitration and the O's will want to avoid that. If he gets 15+ million a next year after Arbitration then I wouldn't consider resigning him.

[waroriole]

That's why I'd pay him something like 5/$80 mm instead of the 5/$64 mm Bautista got. Remember, that includes two seasons (as opposed to Bautista's one) where Davis is not eligible for free agency, so the difference is really more than just $16 mm.

That seems a lot more in line with what I would be comfortable doing. No way do I give Davis 100M based on 96 games. If he would take something like 5/70-80, I'd do that. But, with Boras as his agent, I know that isn't going to happen.

We could do something like this:

'14: 9M

'15: 13M

'16: 16M

'17: 17M

'18: 18M

That would be 5/73. Obviously, you could work a little bit within that frame, but I wouldn't be willing to go outside of it much based on one career year.