Will the O's be willing to top 100 million for Chris Davis?

[Frobby]

Overall play is very clearly dropping starting at 30. It's been proven time and time again. You just want to avoid giving long term deals to players over 30. It's why small market teams can compete. Because they stack players in their prime.

The issue isn't necessarily when does performance start to decline, but when does it decline to the point where you are overpaying the player over the life of his contract. For example, if we pay Chris Davis $100 mm and he produces $120 mm in value over six years, I don't necessarily care that in the final two years, he was worth a total of $20 mm instead of the $33 mm we paid him in those two seasons. And a six-yesr deal that end at age 33 isn't the riskiest thing in the world compared to the following first basemen contracts:

- 8 year deal that ends at age 36 (Teixeira)

- 9 year deal that ends at age 36 (Fielder)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Howard)(really a 5-year extension signed two years before the old contract was due to expire, so looking 7 years into the future)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Adrian Gonzalez)

- 13 year deal that ends at age 39 (Votto)

Really, the Davis discussion isn't about age, it's about whether you believe he can come anywhere close to replicating 2013 for the next few years. Per fangraphs, he's been worth $25 mm already this season, which projects out to $40 mm+ if he continues at this pace. But last year he was worth about $9 mm. So what will he be worth in 2014, 15, and 16?

[calmunderfire]

The issue isn't necessarily when does performance start to decline, but when does it decline to the point where you are overpaying the player over the life of his contract. For example, if we pay Chris Davis $100 mm and he produces $120 mm in value over six years, I don't necessarily care that in the final two years, he was worth a total of $20 mm instead of the $33 mm we paid him in those two seasons. And a six-yesr deal that end at age 33 isn't the riskiest thing in the world compared to the following first basemen contracts:

- 8 year deal that ends at age 36 (Teixeira)

- 9 year deal that ends at age 36 (Fielder)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Howard)(really a 5-year extension signed two years before the old contract was due to expire, so looking 7 years into the future)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Adrian Gonzalez)

- 13 year deal that ends at age 39 (Votto)

Really, the Davis discussion isn't about age, it's about whether you believe he can come anywhere close to replicating 2013 for the next few years. Per fangraphs, he's been worth $25 mm already this season, which projects out to $40 mm+ if he continues at this pace. But last year he was worth about $9 mm. So what will he be worth in 2014, 15, and 16?

That makes sense. He's unlikely to remain the player he is now in 5 years, but he won't be at the point where he is a shell of himself until later.

[Frobby]

The O's are going to have a hard time keeping Davis under 14M this off season. That is the league average for the top 150 players and he is going to be in the top 10. And if he hits 40 homers next year he probably gets between 17-19M. So I don't see the next two years at 20-25M. It see them at 31-33M. Remember you are dealing with Boras here.

Boras represented Fielder, who earned $11 mm and $15.5 mm in his 2nd and 3rd year of arbitration. He represented Teixeira, who earned $9 mm and $12.5 mm. He represented Howard, who earned $15 mm and $18 mm.

In arbitration, Davis will not match Howard, or come that close IMO. Howard hit 153 homers and knocked in 431 runs in the three years that preceded that deal where he got $15 mm in what would have been his second year of arbitration. He'd been Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and had finished in the top 5 of MVP voting two other times. He was a much more accomplished player than Davis, no matter what Davis does this year.

[brianod]

I think its pretty likely that the O's will offer him at least as many years as they signed Jones for. Six. This off season that would be ages 28-33. If the O's wait a year that is 29-34. If they wait two years that is 30-35. I think there is a real advantage to 28-33. The older years are not in the contract. Also the O's are the only one that can offer Davis that amount of money at age 28. FA is not until 30 and waiting has some risk to Davis. Plus Davis probably likes his current environment with the O's. I think this off season is the time to offer a 6 year deal.

agreed

[brianod]

The issue isn't necessarily when does performance start to decline, but when does it decline to the point where you are overpaying the player over the life of his contract. For example, if we pay Chris Davis $100 mm and he produces $120 mm in value over six years, I don't necessarily care that in the final two years, he was worth a total of $20 mm instead of the $33 mm we paid him in those two seasons. And a six-yesr deal that end at age 33 isn't the riskiest thing in the world compared to the following first basemen contracts:

- 8 year deal that ends at age 36 (Teixeira)

- 9 year deal that ends at age 36 (Fielder)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Howard)(really a 5-year extension signed two years before the old contract was due to expire, so looking 7 years into the future)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Adrian Gonzalez)

- 13 year deal that ends at age 39 (Votto)

Really, the Davis discussion isn't about age, it's about whether you believe he can come anywhere close to replicating 2013 for the next few years. Per fangraphs, he's been worth $25 mm already this season, which projects out to $40 mm+ if he continues at this pace. But last year he was worth about $9 mm. So what will he be worth in 2014, 15, and 16?

DD gets paid a lot of money to make that decision. Personally, I see a humble, team player in his prime. He is special and worth big bucks. I would much rather sign Crush than Cano and Cano would be much more expensive. So, I say commit to him early, like today.

[El Gordo]

Davis is making 3 M this year. I don't see him getting more than 8 M next year in arb. Probably about 18M for the next two. 5/75 M offer with an option for a 6th, would be what I would make.

[maybenxtyr]

I still like 5 for 90 million, but if it was pushed to 6 for 110 that would likely work. As Frobby said, the overall value is the key. If you can not sign him at what the team wants they should make a qualifying offer and let him potentially walk. Everyone can see how bad most of these contracts are.

[DrungoHazewood]

I do not think you throw $100 mm at Chris Davis based on one season. As I've mentioned before, Davis' situation is pretty analogous to Jose Bautista's when he suddenly hit 54 HR. The team then locked him up for 5 years, $64 mm with a team option for a 6th year at $14 mm. At the time, Bautista was two years older than Davis is now, but one year closer to free agency. So, the Jays were only buying out one arbitration year, not two. The deal has been a pretty good deal for the Jays, even though Bautista is not nearly as good now as he was in his 54 HR year, and still has two seasons to go on his deal.

My sense of Davis is that it's pretty likely that he has several 40+ HR seasons in him, but I'm not convinced he's really a .300 hitter. I think Ryan Howard (also a Boras client) may be a pretty good comp here. Howard had a .313/.425/.659 season with 58 HR at age 26 (one year younger than Davis), then followed that with three more 40+ HR seasons but his slash line for those three years was .266/.363/.565. fangraphs evaluates him as a $15 mm/yr player in that time frame, and a lot less since then.

Howard's contract history is worth reviewing. He earned $10 mm, a record for a first-time arbitration eligible (Super-Two), after back to back seasons in which he hit a total of 105 HR and had OPS of 1.084 and .976. The next year he had an .881 OPS with 48 HR and the Phillies bought out his three remaining arbitration years for $54 mm. Now he's in the middle of a 5 year, $125 mm deal that is working out terribly for the Phillies.

Based on this, I think the OP is correct that it takes $100mm+ to extend Chris Davis now, with Boras as his agent. If that's what it would take, I wouldn't do it. Maybe next year. On the other hand, if Davis would sign for something like 5/$80mm, I might bite.

Excellent post. I want Davis to stay here. But you don't treat a guy like a consistent superstar after one very good season on the heels of five wildly inconsistent ones.

[SeaBird]

Do the Orioles hand out $100M contracts? Davis needs more than 1 superstar year under his belt before he gets that kind of money. He's under the Orioles control for 2 more seasons after this year. At that point, if he's still tearing it up, he can go the FA route (he's a Boras client) and see which teams are willing to offer him the $100 million deal. Don't extend him now. Let him make the $3.3M for at least another season and see how he's doing.

[Frobby]

- 8 year deal that ends at age 36 (Teixeira)

- 9 year deal that ends at age 36 (Fielder)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Howard)(really a 5-year extension signed two years before the old contract was due to expire, so looking 7 years into the future)

- 7 year deal that ends at age 36 (Adrian Gonzalez)

- 13 year deal that ends at age 39 (Votto)

The more I look at this list I compiled of first basemen contracts, the more I think Scott Boras will advise Chris Davis to play out the next two years and go on the free agent market, rather than getting locked up at a discount. These contracts are just insane, but teams keep doing them.

[wildcard]

Boras represented Fielder, who earned $11 mm and $15.5 mm in his 2nd and 3rd year of arbitration. He represented Teixeira, who earned $9 mm and $12.5 mm. He represented Howard, who earned $15 mm and $18 mm.

In arbitration, Davis will not match Howard, or come that close IMO. Howard hit 153 homers and knocked in 431 runs in the three years that preceded that deal where he got $15 mm in what would have been his second year of arbitration. He'd been Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and had finished in the top 5 of MVP voting two other times. He was a much more accomplished player than Davis, no matter what Davis does this year.

Davis will likely be one or two in the MVP voting this year (if he continues to hit as he he has this year). He hit 33 homers in last year. So it is not one year. If I project Davis forward he is not projected at 60 homers a year. He projects at 40 to 45 per year. What do the O's pay for that? What is the FA market for that? 40 homers and a 900+ OPS will get a player in his prime 20M. The most important thing in assessing Davis value is what is he projected to produce over the next 6 years? If he finishes the year well, it will be a lot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Davis will likely be one or two in the MVP voting this year (if he continues to hit as he he has this year). He hit 33 homers in last year. So it is not one year. If I project Davis forward he is not projected at 60 homers a year. He projects at 40 to 45 per year. What do the O's pay for that? What is the FA market for that? 40 homers and a 900+ OPS will get a player in his prime 20M. The most important thing in assessing Davis value is what is he projected to produce over the next 6 years? If he finishes the year well, it will be a lot.

I am sure there will be calls to assume Davis is now a 5+ win player for the foreseeable future. That's $20M+ a year. And that is the path to a millstone of a contract. Like Frobby said, Bautista is a decent framework. Much more than that and I pass.

[Frobby]

Davis will likely be one or two in the MVP voting this year (if he continues to hit as he he has this year). He hit 33 homers in last year. So it is not one year. If I project Davis forward he is not projected at 60 homers a year. He projects at 40 to 45 per year. What do the O's pay for that? What is the FA market for that? 40 homers and a 900+ OPS will get a player in his prime 20M. The most important thing in assessing Davis value is what is he projected to produce over the next 6 years? If he finishes the year well, it will be a lot.

There's no question that 40 homers and a .900+ OPS is worth at least $20 mm in the free agent marketplace. But players in their 2nd year of arbitration eligibility typically make about 60% of their free agent market value.

[Mayor McCheese]

Boras will convice him to go to Free Agency and that several large market teams will be interested which will net him a long term deal.

I honestly can't see the Orioles paying more than $15MM/year for a player.

[srock]

Davis is making 3 M this year. I don't see him getting more than 8 M next year in arb. Probably about 18M for the next two. 5/75 M offer with an option for a 6th, would be what I would make.

This is close to where I am comfortable as well.

Given his likely arbitration salaries, it has to be worth it for Davis to extend ASAP. If he only makes half his value in his years 27-29 he is running a huge risk of never signing a long term deal.

However, 5 year deal is ideal for the team. 7 is ideal for the player. Therefore, the compromise is likely to be a 6 year deal with some sort of option on a 7th.