For what it's worth......Pitching!

[Lucky Jim]

While thrown like a curve I would say that the motion is closely mimics a slurve. Either way he didnt always have that same pitch. I agree it is a curve, but the point is it was not always thrown as effectively as he uses it now.

And while Patton's K9 numbers have slipped, he has also moved very quickly to where he is and is still just 22.

Additionally you will find that Bedard's K9 numbers slipped drastically and were built back up as he advanced. Bedard was 25 before he really started producing at the ML level. That gives Patton three years to get to a higher level. You will find that their H9 and BB9 numbers to be very similar as well through their progression at similar ages.

Finally, I am not saying Patton is Bedard. I am saying Patton can become an ace, and not necessarily the same type of ace that Bedard is. He has the natural tools, some very good MiL numbers and the work habits to make it happen. And more than anything, he is still young.

The curve HAS always been there. It was his outpitch in the minors. The OH, in its 2003 prospect report called it "unhittable."

Bedard's K9 numbers slipped because he pitched his first full year after TJ in the ML after having never pitched above AA before. This is entirely different than Patton. Entirely.

[As for Bedard's age - not only TJ, but the fact that he didn't play organized baseball until he was 18 was a factor. Can the same be said of Patton? Using him as a metric for how Patton might grow is just wrong on a number of levels.]

My point was that, to be an ace, you need to miss bats. And, for now at least, Patton doesn't miss enough bats. This is indisputable. There is some noise that he's been pitching to contact - which is fine, if it means he can end up striking more guys out down the road. But I don't have any evidence of this. Rather, profile-wise, it seems he lacks a devastating "out pitch" of the kind that Bedard's always had. If that's the case, then he's not likely to be an ace. But there's no harm in being a good #3 or a great #4 (which he may well be.)

But "hard work" and "intelligence" aren't going to be enough to make him an ace - not if he he's a flyball pitcher who doesn't strike people out. Not only is that a problematic profile for Camden Yards - it's the farthest thing from an Ace profile imaginable.

[RShack]

I'm like the old Ernest and Julio Gallo commercial. I shall sell no wine before its time.

Or to quote Miracle Max (Billy Crystal) in "The Princess Bride":

You rush a miracle man, you get rotten miracles.

hee, hee, I kill myself

Oh, jeez. Why can't you just tell us what you think now?

Things are slow and there's nothing else to talk about. That's when people are gonna be more likely to read the dang thing.

Nobody here cares about your writing craft. There's plenty of time to worry about perfecting it and winning a Pulitzer later ;-)

[allstar1579]

A good chunk of ace type pitchers are ones that are projected to be a #2 or a #3 and just keep improving once they get there. Did anyone project Bedard as an ace? For every hotshot ace prospect that is projected to be a No. 1, there are guys projected to be a #3 that just keep working hard, and develop more. There isn't THAT much of a difference between a #2 and a #1. Once guys are performing at the rate that would make them a #2, it's just a matter of being that "streak buster", that guy that can go out and stop a 4-game losing streak 80-90% of the time. If Guthrie performed at his 1st half rate, or even just a little worse, for this entire season, what would you call him?

We could have 3 or 4 ace type pitchers on our roster now, and not know it until they get a chance to go out and show that "extra something" that makes a #2 a #1. Loewen, and Guthrie look like the most likely of the current rotation guys, while I would love to see more of Patton, Albers, Liz, Olsen, and Penn and see what they can turn into.

DCab, I feel like deserves another shot in the rotation to see if he can get it together, but unless we can get an offer too hard to say no to, I think he could be worth a look as a set-up man, and depending on how that goes a shot at closer. His control issues are a big worry for those spots, but I feel like if he's going in 1 inning bursts, he may be able to get his head in the right place to focus and be a dominant late inning guy.

[Lucky Jim]

A good chunk of ace type pitchers are ones that are projected to be a #2 or a #3 and just keep improving once they get there. Did anyone project Bedard as an ace? For every hotshot ace prospect that is projected to be a No. 1, there are guys projected to be a #3 that just keep working hard, and develop more. There isn't THAT much of a difference between a #2 and a #1. Once guys are performing at the rate that would make them a #2, it's just a matter of being that "streak buster", that guy that can go out and stop a 4-game losing streak 80-90% of the time. If Guthrie performed at his 1st half rate, or even just a little worse, for this entire season, what would you call him?

We could have 3 or 4 ace type pitchers on our roster now, and not know it until they get a chance to go out and show that "extra something" that makes a #2 a #1. Loewen, and Guthrie look like the most likely of the current rotation guys, while I would love to see more of Patton, Albers, Liz, Olsen, and Penn and see what they can turn into.

DCab, I feel like deserves another shot in the rotation to see if he can get it together, but unless we can get an offer too hard to say no to, I think he could be worth a look as a set-up man, and depending on how that goes a shot at closer. His control issues are a big worry for those spots, but I feel like if he's going in 1 inning bursts, he may be able to get his head in the right place to focus and be a dominant late inning guy.

I agree with this. I didn't mean to imply otherwise.

[Pre-Highlanders]

A good chunk of ace type pitchers are ones that are projected to be a #2 or a #3 and just keep improving once they get there. Did anyone project Bedard as an ace? For every hotshot ace prospect that is projected to be a No. 1, there are guys projected to be a #3 that just keep working hard, and develop more. There isn't THAT much of a difference between a #2 and a #1. Once guys are performing at the rate that would make them a #2, it's just a matter of being that "streak buster", that guy that can go out and stop a 4-game losing streak 80-90% of the time. If Guthrie performed at his 1st half rate, or even just a little worse, for this entire season, what would you call him?

We could have 3 or 4 ace type pitchers on our roster now, and not know it until they get a chance to go out and show that "extra something" that makes a #2 a #1. Loewen, and Guthrie look like the most likely of the current rotation guys, while I would love to see more of Patton, Albers, Liz, Olsen, and Penn and see what they can turn into.

DCab, I feel like deserves another shot in the rotation to see if he can get it together, but unless we can get an offer too hard to say no to, I think he could be worth a look as a set-up man, and depending on how that goes a shot at closer. His control issues are a big worry for those spots, but I feel like if he's going in 1 inning bursts, he may be able to get his head in the right place to focus and be a dominant late inning guy.

Can you give some examples of guys who were thought of as having a ceiling of #2, then did something to become #1's? I'm drawing a blank.

Was Mussina seen as a 2 while in the minors? or as a 1 with stuff a little less nasty than Ben McDonald's?

[allstar1579]

Can you give some examples of guys who were thought of as having a ceiling of #2, then did something to become #1's? I'm drawing a blank.

Was Mussina seen as a 2 while in the minors? or as a 1 with stuff a little less nasty than Ben McDonald's?

Guys like Aaron Harang, Matt Cain (although aside from arm troubles always had a high ceiling), Roy Halladay. Guys like that come to mind. Hard to think of off the top of my head though.

[clarence]

Until the past season and a half, Bedard was probably the hardest Oriole to watch pitch in my opinion. He would usually take about three hours to get through his 5+ innings and seemed very unsure of his stuff. We are treating Bedard's last 10-15 starts like something that no one under our current control may be able to duplicate. Maybe not the same type of dominance (even though it has been a short period of time), but if four or five of them turn into 2-3 types, we are going to win a lot of games. I feel good about the future of our rotation. I still think Penn is going to be heard from. Beato was working on pitches last season and will get to use his full arsenal this season and could really rise fast. Arrietta, Patton, Albers, Bascom, Liz, Hernandez, Spoone and Erbe could all turn out to be better than a #3. Add another pitcher in the Bedard trade and we are putting good odds in our favor that some amount of these guys will produce at a good level.

[Lucky Jim]

Guys like Aaron Harang, Matt Cain (although aside from arm troubles always had a high ceiling), Roy Halladay. Guys like that come to mind. Hard to think of off the top of my head though.

Well, I think Harang is a marginal #2 (in other words, a #1 on a staff by default). Halladay was a power arm who was believed to be a #1, got shelled when he first came up, got sent back down and re-constructed his approach. Perhaps he wasn't thought of as a #1. But he was definitely a #2 (which always implies the chance to be a #1.)

That's just from my memory.

And you're right about Cain - it's the injuries that dampened enthusiasm (like with Adam Miller - who I think most still consider #1 material if healthy.)

[allstar1579]

Well, I think Harang is a marginal #2 (in other words, a #1 on a staff by default). Halladay was a power arm who was believed to be a #1, got shelled when he first came up, got sent back down and re-constructed his approach. Perhaps he wasn't thought of as a #1. But he was definitely a #2 (which always implies the chance to be a #1.)

That's just from my memory.

And you're right about Cain - it's the injuries that dampened enthusiasm (like with Adam Miller - who I think most still consider #1 material if healthy.)

I completely agree. Pretty often you get guys that are #1 by default, but if they can put up good numbers doing it, what is the difference if there could be someone better above them? Harang has put up some great numbers the past 2 years, but with Bedard on his team, he's a #2, which would make a nice 1-2 punch. What if Bedard is on a team with Santana though? Then Bedard is a 2 instead of the 1 that he could be other places.

There are a couple prospects every year that get knocked down to #2 or #3 potential because of injuries or an off year, that could just as easily bounce back and turn into a #1 (Miller comes to mind)

[RShack]

Oh, jeez. Why can't you just tell us what you think now?

Things are slow and there's nothing else to talk about. That's when people are gonna be more likely to read the dang thing.

Nobody here cares about your writing craft. There's plenty of time to worry about perfecting it and winning a Pulitzer later ;-)

On a more constructive note...

I wonder if it's really smart to put-up something that's article-length in one mega-post.

I wonder if it's more effective to put it up in a series of more bite-size chunks.

I say this for 5 reasons:

• 1. Message boards have ADD. The longer it is, the fewer people are actually gonna read the dang thing.
• 2. Each part will involve little topics that trigger discussion due to questions, or misunderstandings, or differing opinions, or whatever. In non-mega posts, all that stuff can get dealt with. In a mega-post, it won't.
• 3. Seeing what comes up in one part will likely influence what you wish to say in the next part. Sorta like on-the-fly development.
• 4. Focusing on more-bite-size parts will make it easier to actually do something that's good enough to get it out-the-door before hell freezes over.
• 5. Getting something out-the-door sooner rather than later will permit people to pay attention to it. If you do it as one mega-post, you won't get around to it until ST (at the soonest), at which point everybody's gonna be distracted by other stuff. In contrast, everybody is looking hard for something to pay attention to Right Now.

Wait until later, and the amount of available attention will be divided among way more stuff. Right now, you've got much more of a captive audience.

So, as you can see, I'm just looking out for your own best interest. See?