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Does Chris Davis really have a shot at a Gold Glove?


Frobby

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If you want those with the best Range Factor, you get Morneau, then Davis, then James Loney, which I think works in Davis's favor. Plus the whole fact that he leads with putouts and total chances while still having one of the fewest error totals........I think Davis finishes top 3 in the voting easily, if not higher.

My random guess is Loney, since he never hit much but was touted as a plus fielder, and this year he hit well for a while. Some of the voters remember him for that and will vote for him. Morneau gets votes because he won an MVP and will be somewhere near the top in the metrics. Really with a wildly split vote any kind of little thing could surge someone over the top.

If they hadn't come up with the ballot of eligibles a few years ago my money would be on Tex. Even listing the metrics some people would see Tex near zero and think "ah, those screwed up SABR guys think Tex is average... I know better" and forget he's played in 15 games.

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The two most recent winners at 1B are Tex and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither will win this year. Davis has played the number of games needed to win and there is really no one better.

There's essentially no objective evidence that this is true. You could just as easily say the same thing about Loney or Morneau or Overbay or Trumbo or Swisher or Hosmer or Moreland or Konerko...

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The two most recent winners at 1B are Tex and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither will win this year. Davis has played the number of games needed to win and there is really no one better.

Lots of different guys have arguments. Hosmer has way more assists than anyone else, and the most scoops. Loney has a strong reputation, has started the most DP's and his UZR is good. Napoli leads in UZR. It's really anyone's guess who will win at 1B.

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There's essentially no objective evidence that this is true. You could just as easily say the same thing about Loney or Morneau or Overbay or Trumbo or Swisher or Hosmer or Moreland or Konerko...

Davis has played more games than anyone but Hosmer which in a factor in an open race. Davis is tie for the highest fielding pct with Morneau and Smoak but he has played 25 more games than either of them. His offensive output has given him lots of press which helps. (Maybe it shouldn't but it does). As I said there is just no one better than Davis when you compare them head to head.

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Lots of different guys have arguments. Hosmer has way more assists than anyone else, and the most scoops. Loney has a strong reputation, has started the most DP's and his UZR is good. Napoli leads in UZR. It's really anyone's guess who will win at 1B.

You are way in the weeds with assists, scoops, DP and UZR. This is voted on by the managers and they don't look much farther than games played (durability) and fielding pct. That is my opinion unless the sabermetrics input changes something this year.

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As I said there is just no one better than Davis when you compare them head to head.

And as I said there's no real factual basis for that claim. The only things Davis have going for him are games played, fielding percentage, and hitting. Fielding percentage is the only one of those things that should matter, and that only as a small input to the overall picture. Others have stronger cases.

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You are way in the weeds with assists, scoops, DP and UZR. This is voted on by the managers and they don't look much farther than games played (durability) and fielding pct. That is my opinion unless the sabermetrics input changes something this year.

Why do you think games played has any influence at all? My thought is that they just go by whomever they remember having some good plays, who has won recently... and random guessing. I really hope they're not using fielding percentage, since all first basemen are tightly grouped over .990.

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And as I said there's no real factual basis for that claim. The only things Davis have going for him are games played, fielding percentage, and hitting. Fielding percentage is the only one of those things that should matter, and that only as a small input to the overall picture. Others have stronger cases.

What should happen does not often happen if you are using sabermetrics. Manager just don't let them sway their vote. Or haven't in the past. I have given you the factual basis. You don't have to agree with me but durability and fielding pct are big deals to managers.

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And as I said there's no real factual basis for that claim. The only things Davis have going for him are games played, fielding percentage, and hitting. Fielding percentage is the only one of those things that should matter, and that only as a small input to the overall picture. Others have stronger cases.

Just not true, and I posted about this just a little while ago. Davis has the 2nd best Range Factor in the AL for first baseman. Actually if you only consider guys CURRENTLY in the AL, Davis is #1. Not sure how many managers know what Range Factor is, but if they are trying to become more SABR inclined as you say, they might consider it.

Davis has the "good ol boys" criteria in his advantage (good offense, lots of games played, seems decent enough with the glove, Field % wise) and also some newer stuff like Range Factor.......admittedly more of the former than the latter......which is why I think there is a great chance he gets it.

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Just not true, and I posted about this just a little while ago. Davis has the 2nd best Range Factor in the AL for first baseman. Actually if you only consider guys CURRENTLY in the AL, Davis is #1. Not sure how many managers know what Range Factor is, but if they are trying to become more SABR inclined as you say, they might consider it.

Davis has the "good ol boys" criteria in his advantage (good offense, lots of games played, seems decent enough with the glove, Field % wise) and also some newer stuff like Range Factor.......admittedly more of the former than the latter......which is why I think there is a great chance he gets it.

Range Factor isn't exactly new, and while I don't dismiss it as a lot of other people do, it's pretty flawed in comparison to play by play systems like UZR and DRS.

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The two most recent winners at 1B are Tex and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither will win this year. Davis has played the number of games needed to win and there is really no one better.

Interesting admission since you were saying he was going to be a butcher or us all offseason (and probably a good portion of the beginning of the season) .

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You are way in the weeds with assists, scoops, DP and UZR. This is voted on by the managers and they don't look much farther than games played (durability) and fielding pct. That is my opinion unless the sabermetrics input changes something this year.

Well, clearly Rawlings (which runs the Gold Glove voting) is doing what it can to give the managers and coaches data to consider. Whether the managers and coaches will pay any attention to it is anyone's guess. But I think today's managers are a lot more stat-savvy than they were ten years ago.

As part of the multi-year collaboration beginning with the 2013 season, SABR will develop an expanded statistical resource guide that will accompany the Rawlings Gold Glove Award ballots sent to major league-level managers and coaches each year. In addition, SABR will immediately establish a new Fielding Research Committee tasked to develop a proprietary new defensive analytic called the SABR Defensive Index™, or SDI™. The SDI will serve as an “apples-to-apples” metric to help determine the best defensive players in baseball exclusively for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and Rawlings Platinum Glove Award selection processes.

http://sabr.org/latest/rawlings-gold-glove-award-adds-new-sabermetric-component-sabr

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