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Tanaka To Be Posted


DrinkinWithFermi

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Yes, and hitters aren't picking up on that. That's the difference. Not the plane.

This is gobbledegook. You are making no sense. Hitters aren't picking up on the fact that a curve comes out of the hand differently than a change piece or a slider? There isn't a pitcher in baseball that can throw a curve with the same finish as his change. So what is the critique?

This is narrative stretching at its finest.

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From Dan Symborski's ESPN Insider:

"....ZiPS projects Tanaka as the most valuable pitcher available in free agency this year. ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects."

And this....

"The O's are missing a golden opportunity here, going with the "do nothing and hope another player suddenly becomes an MVP candidate like Chris Davis did" plan."

Not to mention that he's only 25 and a long term contract at that age just isn't a possibility with the way FA is currently structured. You don't get a shot at guys until most of them are past their prime.

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From Casey McGehee who played against him in Japan:

“His forkball is the best one I’ve seen,” McGehee was quoted as saying. “A lot of guys over there throw one. He’s the one guy that was able to manipulate it and have it do what he wanted. He could throw it for strikes. He could take speed off of it. He could throw it harder. He could bounce it. He was really special with that pitch."

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2013-12-28/masahiro-tanaka-rumors-contract-yankees-red-sox-dodgers-mariners-casey-mcgehee-forkball

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While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.

Trust ZIPS if you want. Tanaka may be that good, but there is certainly a lot of risk involved in comparing his value to Price's. Besides, there is only one Tanaka available so once he's off the table, the Rays will be in the driver's seat likely surrounded by multiple bidders. In today's win now environment, if it takes more than one year for Tanaka to adjust to MLB hitters, it might not be worthwhile.

Darvish has certainly proved to be worth the investment, but investments carry RISK. The successful ones do not mean all similar investments will be successful.

Finally, separately, the characterization of the Os as "do nothing and hope another player suddenly becomes an MVP candidate" is an incredibly na?ve (I'd say ignorant) of the attempts of Andy MacPhail and DD to gather an incredibly wide net of current and former prospects to see which ones panned out. Besides Davis, those efforts netted Adam Jones and Chris Tillman as major leaguers all netting 4.4 WAR or more in 2013. I had the list one time and it would not surprise me if we took chances on over 25 guys who were BA Top 100 or organizational top 30 guys. Sorry, but it is very difficult for me to let someone characterize those efforts as "do nothing".

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Trust ZIPS if you want. Tanaka may be that good, but there is certainly a lot of risk involved in comparing his value to Price's. Besides, there is only one Tanaka available so once he's off the table, the Rays will be in the driver's seat likely surrounded by multiple bidders. In today's win now environment, if it takes more than one year for Tanaka to adjust to MLB hitters, it might not be worthwhile.

Darvish has certainly proved to be worth the investment, but investments carry RISK. The successful ones do not mean all similar investments will be successful.

Finally, separately, the characterization of the Os as "do nothing and hope another player suddenly becomes an MVP candidate" is an incredibly na?ve (I'd say ignorant) of the attempts of Andy MacPhail and DD to gather an incredibly wide net of current and former prospects to see which ones panned out. Besides Davis, those efforts netted Adam Jones and Chris Tillman as major leaguers all netting 4.4 WAR or more in 2013. I had the list one time and it would not surprise me if we took chances on over 25 guys who were BA Top 100 or organizational top 30 guys. Sorry, but it is very difficult for me to let someone characterize those efforts as "do nothing".

Seriously? Jones and Tillman were from the same trade and I do think Symborski is speaking specifically to the current window that's open and the team's seeming lack of action with FA.

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Trust ZIPS if you want. Tanaka may be that good, but there is certainly a lot of risk involved in comparing his value to Price's. Besides, there is only one Tanaka available so once he's off the table, the Rays will be in the driver's seat likely surrounded by multiple bidders. In today's win now environment, if it takes more than one year for Tanaka to adjust to MLB hitters, it might not be worthwhile.

Darvish has certainly proved to be worth the investment, but investments carry RISK. The successful ones do not mean all similar investments will be successful.

Finally, separately, the characterization of the Os as "do nothing and hope another player suddenly becomes an MVP candidate" is an incredibly na?ve (I'd say ignorant) of the attempts of Andy MacPhail and DD to gather an incredibly wide net of current and former prospects to see which ones panned out. Besides Davis, those efforts netted Adam Jones and Chris Tillman as major leaguers all netting 4.4 WAR or more in 2013. I had the list one time and it would not surprise me if we took chances on over 25 guys who were BA Top 100 or organizational top 30 guys. Sorry, but it is very difficult for me to let someone characterize those efforts as "do nothing".

Good points, and worth noting Darvish has better stuff and it still took essentially an overhaul of his approach, and mechanics, for him to get the point he's at right now. 6/120 seems like a pretty good chance to be a painful horrific contract, and as soon as July or August.

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Seriously? Jones and Tillman were from the same trade and I do think Symborski is speaking specifically to the current window that's open and the team's seeming lack of action with FA.

I just mentioned a few, but there were more - Patton is still on the team, Sherrill contributed and then was traded for a top 5 organizational prospect, Luke Scott contributed about 8 WAR over four seasons costing around $13M, etc, etc. Besides all of the other prospects involved, I think people need to remember the patience required to get Chris Tillman where he is today or superior scouting to land a Miguel Gonzalez for nothing.

I get that people think it would be awesome to be "relevant" - defining relevant as dipping into the FA pool for a $15M-$20M contract, but many of those contracts turn out very poorly, and make that team "irrelevant" - kind of like what the big $ contracts to BRob and Markakis did for us last season. That's why I would prefer my team's big $ investments to be in prospects.

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Good points, and worth noting Darvish has better stuff and it still took essentially an overhaul of his approach, and mechanics, for him to get the point he's at right now. 6/120 seems like a pretty good chance to be a painful horrific contract, and as soon as July or August.

I expect a major league team investing in Tanaka is going to prepare for 2014 with Tanaka penciled into one of the top 3 slots in the rotation and Tanaka's 2014 performance seems likely to disappoint.

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If I were a GM looking at Tanaka, I'd see two red flags.

Last year, at age 25, he threw a lot of innings, and I believe he has been doing that for years.

Also last year, he did something that doomed me as a pitcher years ago: He threw a complete game, and the next day, closed out another victory. In my case, I felt fine immediately afterward (it was the end of the season), but the next spring, I knew my shoulder had a problem.

Tanaka's big contract will be a risk.

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I just mentioned a few, but there were more - Patton is still on the team, Sherrill contributed and then was traded for a top 5 organizational prospect, Luke Scott contributed about 8 WAR over four seasons costing around $13M, etc, etc. Besides all of the other prospects involved, I think people need to remember the patience required to get Chris Tillman where he is today or superior scouting to land a Miguel Gonzalez for nothing.

I get that people think it would be awesome to be "relevant" - defining relevant as dipping into the FA pool for a $15M-$20M contract, but many of those contracts turn out very poorly, and make that team "irrelevant" - kind of like what the big $ contracts to BRob and Markakis did for us last season. That's why I would prefer my team's big $ investments to be in prospects.

Ok, and I agree with you for the most part except that Tanaka is only 25. Not your typical FA signing. I understand there's still risk but I like the fact that he's under 30. And to me a big investment in pitching is different than one to a position player.

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Ok, and I agree with you for the most part except that Tanaka is only 25. Not your typical FA signing. I understand there's still risk but I like the fact that he's under 30. And to me a big investment in pitching is different than one to a position player.

He's got a LOT of mileage on that arm for a 25 year old.

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Are people seriously suggesting the O's should be in on Tanaka? B'more is not nearly as attractive a venue as NY, SEA, or LA. We would have to way over bid them to get him to consider us. Will he prove to be a better SP than Gausman or Bundy in the next two years? We would have to offer somewhere in the neighbor hood of 6/150M to get him. Does that make any kind of sense?

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Are people seriously suggesting the O's should be in on Tanaka? B'more is not nearly as attractive a venue as NY, SEA, or LA. We would have to way over bid them to get him to consider us. Will he prove to be a better SP than Gausman or Bundy in the next two years? We would have to offer somewhere in the neighbor hood of 6/150M to get him. Does that make any kind of sense?

This is all speculation.

I can speculate too. Maybe Tanaka is best buds with Wie-Yen and they can't wait to be roomies in Fed Hill.

Maybe his father despised the MFY, and bestowed this upon his son, because he is truly a good soul and what good soul doesn't hate them?

Maybe all this nonesense about the Orioles not participating in the posting process is an elaborate rues concocted by Duquette, Angelos, and Kubatko designed to throw everyone off the story until the surprise news conference of winter is Tanaka doing the tango with the Orioles bird!

Its my 2^5 birthday, I'm getting crazy up in here today ;)

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If he does, good for him. I don't see it happening. Nomo was un-hittable so were a few other Japanese players in their first 2 years. Then they fell into that major regression where they lived in the world of a solid #2.

10th most productive with 2 of those pitchers being on the same team. Darvish has problem giving up runs, home runs, and walking guys. I've seen him crack under pressure, not something a #1 one does on a regular basis.

Do you think Darvish would be a number one on the Orioles?

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