Justify keeping Bedard or Roberts

[ON BASE %]

I believe they have an even younger guy waiting to take over in CF. Plus, we would make it a win/win by trading them a young pitcher such as Olson or Penn. Maybe we even throw in a reliever and get a prospect back...many different ways this could play out.

I believe you're referring to Andrew McCutchen. He's probably still another year or two from sticking in the big leagues.

And Xavier Nady doesn't look to be a guy that will be a Pirate long-term. So McClouth could slide over to RF if/when McCutchen is ready.

I just don't think an Olson, Penn, Patton, or Liz gets it done. I think McClouth is the kind of player the Pirates would want as they continue their rebuild.

[ON BASE %]

Right now I think the time frame for the young pitching for a SS trade is late March after the O's and the rest of the league sees how the O's young pitchers are doing. Also it allows the O's to scout the young ss.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. It's just my opinion but for better or worse I think LH will be the SS this year.

[NoVaO]

You seem to contradict yourself here. You say on one hand that usually we see big time turnarounds coming. Then a sentence later you say but most of the turn around teams are sleepers. Which is it? Just recently, I've seen the Rockies and Tigers go from nothings to World Series contenders.

Same thing. Maybe I should rephrase it to mean that maybe we don't see it coming, but you can see the possibility, hence the sleeper label.

The Rockies are an example of this. All 5 NL West teams were viewed as having a chance that year. That division was extremely balanced. And they had a lot of young upcoming talent on the Rockies to go along with a bunch of already very good players in their peak years.

The Tigers are one of the teams where nobody predicted they would do what they did or had them as a sleeper. But they did make a lot of moves and developed some elite players.

While I am all for dismantling this team properly, I also always hold out some slim chance of hope that we will be one of those turnaround teams...just like that bunch of no names from 1989! Hey...why not?

I agree. Nothing is 100% set in stone and anything can happen.

[clapdiddy]

I believe you're referring to Andrew McCutchen. He's probably still another year or two from sticking in the big leagues.

And Xavier Nady doesn't look to be a guy that will be a Pirate long-term. So McClouth could slide over to RF if/when McCutchen is ready.

I just don't think an Olson, Penn, Patton, or Liz gets it done. I think McClouth is the kind of player the Pirates would want as they continue their rebuild.

I can't say that I disagree with your argument. If I were the Pirates, I would certainly keep him around. I'd have to think that there could be some combination of players that we could work out that would be mutually beneficial to both teams.

[Migrant Redbird]

It seems Andy MacPhail is thinking like a loser and has a closed mind as well.

I don't pretend to know what MacPhail is thinking. I lose patience with those who fill up 10-15 page threads every day attempting to divine his intent.

Is it really just a "bunch of loser fans" who think the best plan for the team is to trade Roberts & Bedard?

No, it's a "bunch of loser fans" who are fixed in their opinions that it's impossible to build a winning team without trading Roberts and Bedard for prospects. That might be a valid strategy, depending upon how good the prospects are in return, but it doesn't foreclose the possibility that keeping them (Bedard especially) might also be a valid strategy. I don't really want to offend anyone but, when trying to break through a closed mind, sometimes it's necessary to hit them up beside the head with a 2 by 4.

You think you are so enlightened. Perhaps it's you with the closed mind.

Sure. Go back through all my posts here and give me some examples of my "close mindedness".

I've been asked to evaluate the prospect packages hypothesized in exchange for Roberts and Bedard. I've declined, simply because I don't regard my judgment on prospects to be that authoritative. If it were a discussion about Cardinals prospects, I'd be more likely to have an opinion, but I'd probably need to go research it and inform myself a little more. That's what I would do if I thought the Cardinals were considering a trade for some other team's prospects -- go and try to evaluate those prospects myself. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the evaluations of prospects -- even when done by expert scouts -- and I'm not willing to exert myself to rate a package of Mariners or Cubs prospects when the result wouldn't have much validity anyhow.

My position on players of Bedard's quality is that teams develop these players from within their system to have them under control for a relatively economical salary for several years. The player has no way to obtain the security of a guaranteed multi-year contract within their first 6 years unless they trade off some of their out year value for an extension. If the team leverages their club options skillfully enough, they can control that player for his entire career at a discount over what the player could receive via free agency.

What often happens is that the player's salary eventually gets high enough that the team no longer wants to pay it, even with a discount, and trades the player or lets him walk for draft picks. That's a decision which the team bases upon their assessment of the player's value to them, compared with what they think it will cost to sign him and what he might bring in trade/picks.

I vacillate on whether trading Roberts is a good idea or not. He's not as critical in my opinion as Bedard. That being said, Brian is one of the more valuable 2nd basemen currently playing and I'm not aware of any prospects currently in the system to replace him? It's true that you might get an all star quality 2nd base prospect back in trade for Roberts who would be cheaper than Roberts and better by the time the O's evolve into a winning team, but that's far from being assured.

I still recall when Roberts and Hairston were competing for the 2nd base job and there was a contingent convinced that either one would merely be a placeholder until Fontenot made it up from Bowie. That's the problem with trading proven major league players for prospects -- both are subject to injury, but the major leaguer has already demonstrated that he can play at this level, whereas many prospects stumble when attempting to step up.

The team has been bad for 10 years in a row...

That's largely irrelevant to everything except the frustration felt by O's fans. The current team isn't the one that fell apart in 1998. The management is different. The front office has turned over a couple times. About the only constant is that the owner is still Peter Angelos, and he has apparently turned control over to MacPhail. The new regime may not be anymore successful than its predecessors, but it won't be because the team has a 10-year losing streak; it will be partly because the current management makes wrong decisions, but the biggest single factor in what happens to the team next year will probably be just plain luck!

It's you who aren't thinking outside the box. You say continue to operate as always. Sign a few FA's and hope for the best.

I didn't say that. I haven't really gone into any details on how I believe a winning franchise gets built. The problem is that most of us understand the basics, and discussing details requires insight into the organization personnel which I don't have. Some fans here do have a little of that insight; many more seem to be convinced they do.

Even though luck is a major factor in the success of most teams, there's not much that you can do about it. It's an independent variable, mostly outside the team's control, so they have to focus on other areas to develop a winning organization.

(1) First and foremost is talent evaluation skills. I don't have it, but I recognize that some people are better at it than others. Somehow, you have to get those people into your organization, give them the tools to do their job, and utilize them.

When Bing Devine was with the Mets, he went down to Texas to look a highly rated prospect. The player, a big lanky pitcher, had a terrible game. Afterwards, the scout who recommended him was apologizing and Devine told him "no matter; I trust your judgment". As a result, the Mets went ahead and drafted Nolan Ryan.

There's a scout who used to be with the Marlins who was high on Albert Pujols, but he couldn't convince the Marlins front office this kid was as good as he said, and he fell to the Cardinals in the 13th round. It still rankles Pujols that the Cards didn't think much of him either, and only offered him a $10K signing bonus. It's all about getting the right scouting skills in your organization and using them.

(2) Player development. It does little good to draft future HOF quality prospects if the organization lacks the ability to keep them healthy and improve their skills. Obviously, you have to hire good coaches and trainers; you need to have a consistent philosophy for how players should be developed; and you have to be able to communicate that philosophy throughout the organization and make sure it gets implemented.

(3) Money! It's less important than some fans believe, because big spending teams like the Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox have demonstrated almost unlimited capacity for spending money ineffectively, but at some point the level of talent which can be purchased with the extra dollars will overwhelm the organizations which have better drafts and development but have to operate on a shoestring.

I would not say that Bedard absolutely shouldn't be traded; I've posted that it would be OK to trade him if the Mets or another club came in with a "knock-your-socks-off" deal. What I take issue with is the mentality that the team can't win with Bedard and that the imperative to get those wonderful prospects is so overwhelming that the O's should simply take the best deal for Bedard that's on the table.

I've never said that Gallagher, Pie, Murton (or whatever the package is) isn't adequate compensation for Bedard because I haven't attempted to evaluate any of the proposed trades except those few that have mentioned the Cardinals. I hate the idea of either Roberts or Bedard ending up on the Cubs, but it's up to the O's front office to weigh the merits of the players involved in the trade. I'm not going to second guess them unless it seems really one-sided.

What I object to are these ideas that Bedard can not be signed to a multi-year extension; that trading Bedard and/or Roberts is the only viable pathway to a winning team; and that 10 years of losing teams somehow means anything more than 3 or 4 years of losing teams does -- unless there is a long term weakness in the organization like Peter Angelos or Tony La Russa .

[RShack]

It seems Andy MacPhail is thinking like a loser and has a closed mind as well.

Huh? What does that mean? He's willing to listen to offers and see what he can get for his best players. He's not gonna move them for less than he wants. IMO, that's exactly right. What about that makes him a loser? Because he's not hell-bent on making trades just for the sake of making trades?

The team has been bad for 10 years in a row and no team besides Boston & the Yanks has made the playoffs for what seems like forever. It's you who aren't thinking outside the box. You say continue to operate as always. Sign a few FA's and hope for the best. That's thinking outside the box? LOL

This is exactly the kind of BS that has helped reinforce all the "blow it up" and trade-everybody nonsense: anytime anybody points out that it's a dumb bumper-sticker slogan that has zilch to do with fixing a franchise, somebody rolls out the same ole "10-years" yada-yada, and starts claiming that any non-believers somehow want more of the same. It's been a silly thing to say all along, and it's a silly thing to say now. The only thing that appears to be maybe-changing is that some folks seem to be waking up to what a load of bull the blind "blow it up and trade-everybody" dogma really is.

IMO, AM appears to be doing the right thing: taking a measured view, focusing on the org as a whole, and not being a knee-jerk reactionary. He may or may not trade Erik and BRob, but if he does it will have zilch to do with either "blow it up" sloganeering or the mythical philosophy behind it. Good franchises behave pretty much the same regardless of whether they're rebuilding or not. There are only a small number of differences. The claim that "rebuilding" is somehow a fundamentally different mode of operation is simply not true.

[Runs2the1Show]

While I think that we should hold onto Bedard until the deadline, that does pose some problems. Teams that have ML ready prospects like Adam Jones will probably not deal them even if they are in contention because they could possibly one of the key pieces of the line-up.

For example, Jones will start in right field for the Mariners and if they are in contention come deadline, they will find every which way to not deal him to acquire Bedard.

Same goes for the Reds. Or any ther team for that matter. Bailey and Cueto will probably have established themselves in the rotation and will certainly not be traded for Bedard in the middle of contention.

However, teams like the Yankees will probably do the opposite. If they are 9 games back in July, Hank will trade whom ever for Bedard. I could see Hughes, Kennedy, Melky, and one other prospect coming our way. Yea, the Yankees would be getting the short end of the stick but desperate times call for desperate measures.

The mets would also probably dump their prospects. We could easliy see Martinez, Mulvey and Guerra coming our way becasue of MacPhail's patience.

Of course the risk is being run that Bedard gets hurt. But quite frankly, how often does that happen. You can bet Trembley will have the order to be extra careful with him, so you won't see any over pitching. And if Bedard pitches lights out, like he usually does, than his value just goes up, teams overpay, we are happy, and MacPhail is the next mayor of Baltimore.

[Roll Tide]

Waiting is a bad Idea IMO. It only Prolongs rebuilding. Which rebuilding has been postponed 10 years too long already. The close to major league ready guys wont be dealt at the break. & I dont think old Pete will allow Bedard to be dealt to the Yanks or Sox!

[clapdiddy]

I am truly to the point now where I don't see Bedard getting dealt. If he is dealt, I have a feeling it will be to a team that we haven't heard much of in our trade banter.

[Runs2the1Show]

What difference does it make if Bedard goes the the Yankees or Sox? The deal made for him should be for the best propects availible, not just to keep him out of the AL East.

While it would be great if he was traded to the NL so we would never have to face him, we need to find the best value for him, even if it is the MYF or the laundry items.

[clapdiddy]

What difference does it make if Bedard goes the the Yankees or Sox? The deal made for him should be for the best propects availible, not just to keep him out of the AL East.

While it would be great if he was traded to the NL so we would never have to face him, we need to find the best value for him, even if it is the MYF or the laundry items.

Agreed. I could care less if he was with the Yanks or Sox. If we are able to grab some prime young talent for him, I'd be all for it.

The more I think about it, the more a Mets deal may be more appealing if we were able to get Martinez included in it.

[Roll Tide]

What difference does it make if Bedard goes the the Yankees or Sox? The deal made for him should be for the best propects availible, not just to keep him out of the AL East.

While it would be great if he was traded to the NL so we would never have to face him, we need to find the best value for him, even if it is the MYF or the laundry items.

Pete doesn't want his stars beating him up 4-5 starts every years for the next 10

[Del34]

The more I think about this whole fiasco, the more I start to think that AM is going to wait til at least the trade deadline to dump Bedard/Roberts/whoever. Unless some team gets desperate.

But I also worry about the problem of what if we don't get similar offers to what we are hearing now? Not that any of the rumors going around are necessarily true, but it will be a big disappointment to the fans if AM doesn't bring back this boatload of talent he is supposedly waiting for...

[TheOtherRipken]

While I think that we should hold onto Bedard until the deadline, that does pose some problems.

However, teams like the Yankees will probably do the opposite. If they are 9 games back in July, Hank will trade whom ever for Bedard. I could see Hughes, Kennedy, Melky, and one other prospect coming our way. Yea, the Yankees would be getting the short end of the stick but desperate times call for desperate measures.

The Orioles will not trade Bedard to the Yankees in a million years, and it's a bad idea to hold onto a pitcher with somewhat of an injury history after he had an insanely good season. Not only that the Orioles just switched pitching coaches. Whose to say Kranitz can do for Bedard what Mazzone did?

I think it's a really stupid risk. If they are going to trade Bedard and or Roberts, do it now, and don't risk injury or decline. This Tejada trade worked out OK for us, but if we would have traded him a year ago we probably could have netted a ton more.

I just have trouble swallowing the fact that no team has offered a package good enough to net Bedard. In a league where Carlos Silva got a 48 million dollar contract. Where last season Gil Meche, a type B free agent last season, gets 55 million and the Royals have to give up a draft pick. I obviously can't know for sure, and I don't have all the facts, but I have trouble believing that no team has offered a great package for Bedard.

[Runs2the1Show]

The more I think about this whole fiasco, the more I start to think that AM is going to wait til at least the trade deadline to dump Bedard/Roberts/whoever. Unless some team gets desperate.

But I also worry about the problem of what if we don't get similar offers to what we are hearing now? Not that any of the rumors going around are necessarily true, but it will be a big disappointment to the fans if AM doesn't bring back this boatload of talent he is supposedly waiting for...

If Am waits until the deadline and Bedard is pitching like last year, his value will be much higher than it is now. We have seen what teams do when they get desperate. Look at the Mets dumping of Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. When you know your in contention, you zone in on it. You focus on what it takes to win now, and sometimes it results in paying for it later. That is what MacPhail hopes to see now. No team is going to be desperate now because they have no idea if they will be in contention come July.