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Official Winter Meetings Thread

weams

By weams
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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Right. Thanks for correcting me. Because I was slightly off there. They value power much more than a few years ago and it show.

Power is no more or less valuable than it's ever been. The value of some given number of extra base hits is more, because there are fewer of them. No hit on you, but everyone has to rejigger their expectations, including me. OBP is very valuable, but the average is now more like .320 than .340. What you used to pay for .340 you now pay for .320. Power is valuable, but a good power hitter might hit 30 homers instead of 45. It's all relative. Just because the league ERA is 3.75 doesn't make pitching (or power or anything else) more valuable, it just moves the averages.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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MASNSteve talks with Buck

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2014/12/showalter-on-bostonnew-york-spending-they-run-out-of-money-yet.html

So I asked Showalter if it's important to get more speed or high OBP players to better balance the team's reliance on the longball.

"No. I'm not always saying, jeez, this guy, there is no such thing as a perfect player. Hitting is hard to do," Showalter said. "If you try to teach walking in your organization, you are going to fail, that's been proven. You can't take until you hit.

"I was talking to one of the best hitting coaches I've ever been around in the offseason. He said base on balls is just a byproduct of a good approach.

"If you try to teach walking in your system, it doesn't work, it just doesn't work. It's a mentality and an approach to hitting. What are you going to do, rob Peter to pay Paul?

"We'll see if it shows up. Something we preach a lot in the minor leagues, the approach and things. You can see some of the young players we're getting through our system bring that. That is one of the things we're going to miss with Nick."

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Free Agency is a very inefficient way to replace top end talent. A mid to small market team needs to be efficient, or they end up on the wrong end of a 14 year losing streak.

Free agency is generally a terrible way to replace talent, because you have limited pools of post-peak talent being chased by tons of TV money. But it is a direct way to replace talent, so fans latch onto it as the only way. If only our owner wasn't such a cheapskate he'd be willing to fork out hundreds of $millions for whatever post-peak talent that vaguely fits our needs and happens to be available right now.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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That's exactly right. Walks (and strikeouts) are residues of good approaches. MLB pitchers and the MLB strike zone are such that it's essentially impossible to go to the plate looking for walks. Walks are what happens when a pitcher needs to be careful with you, and you recognize that and won't swing at his pitches. Ed Yost and Eddie Joost and their type of zero-tool walkers went extinct 60 years ago, with the occasional sighting of a Lance Blankenship. The current species dies out in AA ball.

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backwardsk Hangout Grand Counsel

backwardsk

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Free agency is generally a terrible way to replace talent, because you have limited pools of post-peak talent being chased by tons of TV money. But it is a direct way to replace talent, so fans latch onto it as the only way. If only our owner wasn't such a cheapskate he'd be willing to fork out hundreds of $millions for whatever post-peak talent that vaguely fits our needs and happens to be available right now.

FA is still a useful tool, especially when your farm is not too deep. I'd rather overpay for one to two year guys on the market than give up the asking price for Kemp/Upton. There was nobody in this class that I'd want to spend $50M plus on, but I may feel different after we lose about 30-40M in FA.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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FA is still a useful tool, especially when your farm is not too deep. I'd rather overpay for one to two year guys on the market than give up the asking price for Kemp/Upton. There was nobody in this class that I'd want to spend $50M plus on, but I may feel different after we lose about 30-40M in FA.

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It can be a tool if you use it wisely, mainly concentrating on undervalued assets who fit your little niche. You rarely get good value in the medium-to-high end. Teams like the Yanks and Dodgers appear to make it work because of budgets that allow for high failure rates and the resources to survive 25 cents on the dollar in production.

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stomperspc Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

stomperspc

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Has there been any more mention of Dexter Fowler being available?

Yes, sort of. The Jays discussed a Fowler trade before they landed Michael Saunders. Who knows how far the talks got or how interested the Astros are in trading Fowler, however. I haven't seen anything to indicate the Astros are shopping him even though it would make sense for them to do so.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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Free agency is generally a terrible way to replace talent, because you have limited pools of post-peak talent being chased by tons of TV money. But it is a direct way to replace talent, so fans latch onto it as the only way. If only our owner wasn't such a cheapskate he'd be willing to fork out hundreds of $millions for whatever post-peak talent that vaguely fits our needs and happens to be available right now.

Fine and I agree....but we added Alomar, Palmeiro, and Surhoff that way that worked out pretty well.

If you pick your spots free agency can work...if you choose not to add players via free agency then you need to trade prospects to get other teams talent. You can't make all of your best prospects untouchable. How can you get a player like Upton or Kemp without giving up a premium prospect. I understand the other factors but you can't have your cake and eat it too.

The Orioles don't have enough position talent prospects to cover these departures from within...adding 2nd or 3rd tier players won't replace Nick and Nelson.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Fine and I agree....but we added Alomar, Palmeiro, and Surhoff that way that worked out pretty well.

It kind of worked well. They got a couple of playoff births, then they ended up with the oldest and highest paid team in baseball and very quickly collapsed into a 14-year abyss. If you're not very careful with the resource mix between developing talent/finding cheap talent, and free agency it's easy to slip over the cliff like the 1998 Orioles and the 2014 Phillies. Only a small handful of big teams can rely on free agency instead of carefully treading around its edges and dipping in only with great trepidation.

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Just read that the pirates were discussing a Travis Snyder for Brian matuaz trade... Sounds reasonable

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I would be OK with that deal.

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Just read that the pirates were discussing a Travis Snyder for Brian matuaz trade... Sounds reasonable

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There were also indications the Pirates discussed a potential trade with the Orioles on Tuesday for lefty Brian Matusz in which outfielder Travis Snider would be shipped to Baltimore. Matusz has two years of club control remaining.

http://www.timesonline.com/sports/pirates/huntington-doesn-t-expect-major-moves-for-pirates-rest-of/article_7526f0f6-7fe4-11e4-b81c-9f6abaece980.html

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